Official Potomac/Beltway Primary Discussion Thread (DEM)

[Mr. Morden]

ABC has additional exit poll info here:

http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4280392&page=1

[Verily]

Drudge is reporting exit polls showing Obama 2:1 win over Hillary in both MD and VA.  3 to 1 in the District.   

Also says that Huckabee is close in Virginia, and there may be record black turnout in Maryland.

[exopolitician]

Well, polls close in half an hour, so we'll see soon enough if these exit polls are accurate.

Curious...how come Virginia polls close an hour early before Maryland and DC?

[Gabu]

Well, polls close in half an hour, so we'll see soon enough if these exit polls are accurate.

Curious...how come Virginia polls closer an hour early before Maryland and DC?

They like to be different.

I don't know.  Georgia closed at the same time.  New York closed at 9 PM.

[Flying Dog]

Clinton campaign memo: "Virginia, Maryland and DC doesnt count!"

[Verily]

Well, polls close in half an hour, so we'll see soon enough if these exit polls are accurate.

Curious...how come Virginia polls closer an hour early before Maryland and DC?

Southern states generally seem to have earlier closing times. Don't know why.

[Lief 🗽]

The drop in the black vote doesn't necessarily mean the blacks stayed home, it's possible that most of those first time voters are white (and likely young too). Not a bad thing for Obama.

Yeah, that's what I assumed as well. Just a higher population of whites in NoVa turning out much higher that in 2004.

[Gabu]

Clinton campaign memo: "Virginia, Maryland and DC doesnt count!"

At this rate Clinton is well on her way to be arguing that a majority of states within the country don't matter.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Clinton campaign memo: "Virginia, Maryland and DC doesnt count!"

At this rate Clinton is well on her way to be arguing that a majority of states within the country don't matter.

Except Michigan and Florida

[Lief 🗽]

Clinton campaign memo: "Virginia, Maryland and DC doesnt count!"

At this rate Clinton is well on her way to be arguing that a majority of states within the country don't matter.

Only blue states count. Also states where she's lived in. And racist states. BUT ANY OTHER STATES MIGHT AS WELL JUST MOVE TO CANADA WHERE THEY BELONG.

Jon Stewart was joking about this last night on Daily Show. Hopefully Clinton and her talking points continue to be the butt of jokes right up until Ohio and Texas.

[Gabu]

Jon Stewart was joking about this last night on Daily Show.

What did he have to say?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Fox News is always less restrained than the others in giving out exit poll numbers like this before polls close:

http://thepage.time.com/potomac-primary-exit-poll-data-from-fox-news/

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Well, chuck that exit poll.  Obama winning Seniors?

It makes sense in Virginia. Black seniors + wealthy ones in NOVA.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

[Lief 🗽]

Jon Stewart was joking about this last night on Daily Show.

What did he have to say?

I don't have the exact quote, but he was talking about how Obama had swept Maine, Nebraska, and Washington. And then he says something along the lines of "But, you know Nebraska: they alwaaaaaaays vote for the black guy."

[Gabu]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

Not necessarily.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Giuliani ever actually led in Florida for a long time.  Conversely, Clinton definitely has leads in Texas and Ohio.

I don't have the exact quote, but he was talking about how Obama had swept Maine, Nebraska, and Washington. And then he says something along the lines of "But, you know Nebraska: they alwaaaaaaays vote for the black guy."

Haha.

[MasterJedi]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

Not necessarily.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Giuliani ever actually led in Florida for a long time.  Conversely, Clinton definitely has leads in Texas and Ohio.

Giuliani led in Florida for about 10 months.

[Verily]

Clinton campaign memo: "Virginia, Maryland and DC doesnt count!"

At this rate Clinton is well on her way to be arguing that a majority of states within the country don't matter.

Well, they don't. The only states that matter are the ones that vote for her. (And, at this point, that's definitely going to be a minority in sheer numbers.)

[Gabu]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

Not necessarily.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Giuliani ever actually led in Florida for a long time.  Conversely, Clinton definitely has leads in Texas and Ohio.

Giuliani led in Florida for about 10 months.

After January, I meant.

Not during the time when leading is totally irrelevant.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Other than a very wacky poll that had Thompson ahead for whatever reason, Giuliani led in every Florida poll until December, when the campaign really started up.

[Gabu]

Clinton campaign memo: "Virginia, Maryland and DC doesnt count!"

At this rate Clinton is well on her way to be arguing that a majority of states within the country don't matter.

Well, they don't. The only states that matter are the ones that vote for her. (And, at this point, that's definitely going to be a minority in sheer numbers.)

Yes, she's already 12-19 in terms of states won (or 11-20 if you count Nevada as a win for Obama on account of winning the most delegates).  That means Obama will only need to win seven more states before he's won a majority of the country.

[Gabu]

Other than a very wacky poll that had Thompson ahead for whatever reason, Giuliani led in every Florida poll until December, when the campaign really started up.

After January, I meant.

Not during the time when leading is totally irrelevant.

[exopolitician]

Pretty sure ive gotten 6 text messages from the Obama Campaign in the past 30 minutes telling me "its not too late...go vote GOGOGO!"......if only I could

[Joe Biden 2020]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

Not necessarily.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Giuliani ever actually led in Florida for a long time.  Conversely, Clinton definitely has leads in Texas and Ohio.

Clinton may lead there right now, but there are still three weeks until minisuper Tuesday (March 4), combine that with the Obama-mentum that will probably result from tonight and next Tuesday and you'll probably see dwindling leads for Clinton in the March 4 states going right through the end of February.

She will probably still win those states, but she has to win both, PLUS Pennsylvania in order to recapture the momentum.  If she loses just one of those states, then I don't see any way that she will be able to resurrect her already dim hopes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Exit polls don't seem to be telling us anything we didn't know already. Maybe. Little details point in different directions. Time to asquith.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

No.

Giuliani was stupid enough to wait through the two key momentum builders - Iowa and New Hampshire - then because of that made a half-arsed effort in MI - got obliterated in all three, then many voters realised that inevitable truth about a Giuliani candidacy - he was a one-trick pony, who was in many ways repellant to many primary voters. States wouldn't risk losing all influence if they didn't think being an early primary/caucus didn't matter. Momentum mattered - Giuliani sat on his hands and let McCain suck up his support.

If Clinton doesn't focus anywhere except OH and TX - then she's kidding herself. Obama has the lead in pledged delegates, he's got all the momentum and the money, she needs a win - just to steady the ship, if nothing else.