Official Potomac/Beltway Primary Discussion Thread (DEM)

[exopolitician]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

No.

Giuliani was stupid enough to wait through the two key momentum builders - Iowa and New Hampshire - then because of that made a half-arsed effort in MI - got obliterated in all three, then many voters realised that inevitable truth about a Giuliani candidacy - he was a one-trick pony, who was in many ways repellant to many primary voters. States wouldn't risk losing all influence if they didn't think being an early primary/caucus didn't matter. Momentum mattered - Giuliani sat on his hands and let McCain suck up his support.

If Clinton doesn't focus anywhere except OH and TX - then she's kidding herself. Obama has the lead in pledged delegates, he's got all the momentum and the money, she needs a win - just to steady the ship, if nothing else.

She seems to be skipping right over Wisconsin.

[Ben.]

Time to asquith.

?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Giuliani never stood a prayer in Iowa. That should've been obvious from day one. He was an idiot for ever stepping foot in the state. He was also an idiot for not bothering with NH too though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Time to asquith.

?

Google "asquith wait and see"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

No.

Giuliani was stupid enough to wait through the two key momentum builders - Iowa and New Hampshire - then because of that made a half-arsed effort in MI - got obliterated in all three, then many voters realised that inevitable truth about a Giuliani candidacy - he was a one-trick pony, who was in many ways repellant to many primary voters. States wouldn't risk losing all influence if they didn't think being an early primary/caucus didn't matter. Momentum mattered - Giuliani sat on his hands and let McCain suck up his support.

If Clinton doesn't focus anywhere except OH and TX - then she's kidding herself. Obama has the lead in pledged delegates, he's got all the momentum and the money, she needs a win - just to steady the ship, if nothing else.

She seems to be skipping right over Wisconsin.

I think that move could kill her campaign. She has to try for Wisconsin, it's an important symbolic state at the very least.

[Platypus]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

No.

Giuliani was stupid enough to wait through the two key momentum builders - Iowa and New Hampshire - then because of that made a half-arsed effort in MI - got obliterated in all three, then many voters realised that inevitable truth about a Giuliani candidacy - he was a one-trick pony, who was in many ways repellant to many primary voters. States wouldn't risk losing all influence if they didn't think being an early primary/caucus didn't matter. Momentum mattered - Giuliani sat on his hands and let McCain suck up his support.

If Clinton doesn't focus anywhere except OH and TX - then she's kidding herself. Obama has the lead in pledged delegates, he's got all the momentum and the money, she needs a win - just to steady the ship, if nothing else.

Exactly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Of course she'll at least try for Wisconsin for delegates at least, but Wisconsin election law doesn't exactly favor her (to put it mildly).

[Joe Biden 2020]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

No.

Giuliani was stupid enough to wait through the two key momentum builders - Iowa and New Hampshire - then because of that made a half-arsed effort in MI - got obliterated in all three, then many voters realised that inevitable truth about a Giuliani candidacy - he was a one-trick pony, who was in many ways repellant to many primary voters. States wouldn't risk losing all influence if they didn't think being an early primary/caucus didn't matter. Momentum mattered - Giuliani sat on his hands and let McCain suck up his support.

If Clinton doesn't focus anywhere except OH and TX - then she's kidding herself. Obama has the lead in pledged delegates, he's got all the momentum and the money, she needs a win - just to steady the ship, if nothing else.

She seems to be skipping right over Wisconsin.

I think that move could kill her campaign. She has to try for Wisconsin, it's an important symbolic state at the very least.

I'm in agreement with that.  She can't go four weeks without a victory.

[Gabu]

She seems to be skipping right over Wisconsin.

She is?  That'd surprise me if so; it seems like it'd be a critical state to win to slow down Obama's February steamroller.

[Keystone Phil]

She seems to be skipping right over Wisconsin.

She is?  That'd surprise me if so; it seems like it'd be a critical state to win to slow down Obama's February steamroller.

It's a stupid move. Sure, the college vote and very progressive grassroots base is behind Obama but there is still the strong union vote.

[Ben.]

Time to asquith.

?

Google "asquith wait and see"

I see now... sensible approch, one of the plus points of the elongated primary campaign is that more folks might look to emulate it.

[Flying Dog]

Yes. that's what all the news outlets are saying. She's camping out in Texas and Ohio. It isn't a sound strategy, she can't stand a big loss to Obama there. It has a hefty amount of delegates.

[Alcon]

CNN calls Virginia for Obama

...as they accidentally just showed on the bottom

[Lief 🗽]

Anyone have link to the online CNN results page?

[Verily]

CNN calls Virginia for Obama

...as they accidentally just showed on the bottom

And all I came on this thread for was to remark that polls have closed.

[Keystone Phil]

MSNBC called it, too.

[Verily]

Anyone have link to the online CNN results page?

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#VA

No exit polls yet.

[Speed of Sound]

MSNBC just called it.

[exopolitician]

MSNBC calls Virginia "with a substantial margin..."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

CNN calls Virginia for Obama

...as they accidentally just showed on the bottom

Wow, Hillary's going to be in a world of pain tonight.

[Joe Biden 2020]

168 total delegates at stake for the Democrats tonight.

How many will either candidate get?

[Ben.]

She seems to be skipping right over Wisconsin.

She is?  That'd surprise me if so; it seems like it'd be a critical state to win to slow down Obama's February steamroller.

It's a stupid move. Sure, the college vote and very progressive grassroots base is behind Obama but there is still the strong union vote.

Exactly... although to a degree it's an expectations ploy. She's made a big ad buy in the state and will campaign there with a considerable Clinton base of blue collar, lower income voters she should be able to at the very least do respectably in WI.

Having said that if Obama has in reality got the kind of margins amougst seniors, white voters and women in VA that the exits suggest [massive grain of salt] then that would be a bad sign for Clinton heading into not just WI but OH and TX as well.

[Stranger in a strange land]

MSNBC just called it for Obama right off the bat, which tells me it's a big win

this also bodes well for MD and the states coming up later this month :-D

[Verily]

CNN exit poll numbers suggest 62-36, more or less.

[Flying Dog]

CNN exit poll numbers suggest 62-36, more or less.

Holy Sh!t