Official Potomac/Beltway Primary Discussion Thread (DEM)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The drop in the black vote doesn't necessarily mean the blacks stayed home, it's possible that most of those first time voters are white (and likely young too). Not a bad thing for Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Fox News is always less restrained than the others in giving out exit poll numbers like this before polls close:

http://thepage.time.com/potomac-primary-exit-poll-data-from-fox-news/

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Well, chuck that exit poll.  Obama winning Seniors?

It makes sense in Virginia. Black seniors + wealthy ones in NOVA.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Other than a very wacky poll that had Thompson ahead for whatever reason, Giuliani led in every Florida poll until December, when the campaign really started up.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Giuliani never stood a prayer in Iowa. That should've been obvious from day one. He was an idiot for ever stepping foot in the state. He was also an idiot for not bothering with NH too though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Of course she'll at least try for Wisconsin for delegates at least, but Wisconsin election law doesn't exactly favor her (to put it mildly).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

CNN calls Virginia for Obama

...as they accidentally just showed on the bottom

Wow, Hillary's going to be in a world of pain tonight.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP primary might end up being closer.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only religious demographic Clinton wins on the CNN exit poll is Catholics with lax church attendence. Obama wins more religious Catholics. I find that odd and can't explain it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My biggest race watch in 2006 was the MN-01 House race. You should've seen how the room exploded when that one was called.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama winning 10/11 CDs

But, boy, does VA-09 look ugly. 71% for Clinton so far.

What's VA-09 like?

Appalachia, created specifically so as not to include Richmond.

It's made for Clinton, basically.

Huh? It's nowhere near Richmond.

VA-09 is southern West Virginia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

They haven't even counted all of Illinois yet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nothing from Falls Church in. Not good for Hillary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

West Virginia is probably the most racist state in the country

I doubt it. Not much point in hating blacks when there aren't any where you live.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I thought Walter liked Huckabee. He called him his third favorite once (after Dodd and Hillary.) He also hated McCain calling him a media whore.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only religious demographic Clinton wins on the CNN exit poll is Catholics with lax church attendence. Obama wins more religious Catholics. I find that odd and can't explain it.

I don't. At least not in Maryland, where rural Blacks are mostly Catholic.

Ah, that explains it.

The only religious demographic Clinton wins on the CNN exit poll is Catholics with lax church attendence. Obama wins more religious Catholics. I find that odd and can't explain it.

I don't. At least not in Maryland, where rural Blacks are mostly Catholic.

Really? I didn't think blacks were Catholic anywhere, except where they were Caribbean immigrants (in which case they usually call themselves "two or more races"). Are you sure?

A lot in Louisiana are too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Although the exit poll numbers have changed quite a bit since then. Clinton now wins Catholics with regular church attendance by a wide margin, while Obama narrowly wins Catholics with low attendance. Obama wins Protestants with regular church attendance in a landslide while Clinton wins Protestants with lax attendance (obviously explained by white vs. black)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

i think clinton can do reasonably well the woment (especially) in nova.

i dont know why you all automatically think that obama has nova wrapped up.

ive yet to hear anyone articulate a sound theory on why she will get blown out of the water in fairfax county.  i think she could possibly keep in reasonably close.  maybe not.  but im not automatically ceding it to obama by 30 points.

ha.

Not a surprise that Walter loves to ignore previous voting patterns if he can't figure out why everyone expected Obama to own in NOVA.