Official Potomac/Beltway Primary Discussion Thread (DEM)

[Gabu]

White voters: Clinton 51, OBama 48

If that's accurate, that's great news for Obama.

[Gabu]

Well, polls close in half an hour, so we'll see soon enough if these exit polls are accurate.

[Gabu]

Well, polls close in half an hour, so we'll see soon enough if these exit polls are accurate.

Curious...how come Virginia polls closer an hour early before Maryland and DC?

They like to be different.

I don't know.  Georgia closed at the same time.  New York closed at 9 PM.

[Gabu]

Clinton campaign memo: "Virginia, Maryland and DC doesnt count!"

At this rate Clinton is well on her way to be arguing that a majority of states within the country don't matter.

[Gabu]

Jon Stewart was joking about this last night on Daily Show.

What did he have to say?

[Gabu]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

Not necessarily.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Giuliani ever actually led in Florida for a long time.  Conversely, Clinton definitely has leads in Texas and Ohio.

I don't have the exact quote, but he was talking about how Obama had swept Maine, Nebraska, and Washington. And then he says something along the lines of "But, you know Nebraska: they alwaaaaaaays vote for the black guy."

Haha.

[Gabu]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

Not necessarily.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Giuliani ever actually led in Florida for a long time.  Conversely, Clinton definitely has leads in Texas and Ohio.

Giuliani led in Florida for about 10 months.

After January, I meant.

Not during the time when leading is totally irrelevant.

[Gabu]

Clinton campaign memo: "Virginia, Maryland and DC doesnt count!"

At this rate Clinton is well on her way to be arguing that a majority of states within the country don't matter.

Well, they don't. The only states that matter are the ones that vote for her. (And, at this point, that's definitely going to be a minority in sheer numbers.)

Yes, she's already 12-19 in terms of states won (or 11-20 if you count Nevada as a win for Obama on account of winning the most delegates).  That means Obama will only need to win seven more states before he's won a majority of the country.

[Gabu]

Other than a very wacky poll that had Thompson ahead for whatever reason, Giuliani led in every Florida poll until December, when the campaign really started up.

After January, I meant.

Not during the time when leading is totally irrelevant.

[Gabu]

She seems to be skipping right over Wisconsin.

She is?  That'd surprise me if so; it seems like it'd be a critical state to win to slow down Obama's February steamroller.

[Gabu]

CNN's exit poll confirms the 51-48 numbers for whites.

That's an excellent show for Obama.  He also won Democrats with 59% of the vote, and only lost white Democrats 41-59 (white independents he won 62-37).

[Gabu]

The GOP primary might end up being closer.

"Might"?  If this exit poll is remotely accurate, it will almost certainly be closer.

Also of note: Obama won those wanting change (55%) 84-16.  I've noticed that that margin is getting bigger and bigger every single race.  He also won those wanting someone who cares about people and someone who is electable (!) 67-33 and 67-32.

[Gabu]

Also of note: according to this exit poll, Obama won Catholics 50-49.

It also backs up that other exit poll saying that Obama won those 65 and older 53-47.

[Gabu]

With a whole 0% reporting, Obama leads 61-39!

[Gabu]

So. How much of a difference between the final results and the exit poll will there be?

Other than Massachusetts, I can't think of any other state where the final results were that much different than the exit poll.

[Gabu]

Oh noes, Clinton takes the lead!

It's all over for Obama.

[Gabu]

1% in. Obama leads 55-44

Whatever you're following, switch to this - https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2008/67F01F96-1E82-472E-8051-CF1B1C3786A4/Unofficial/1_s.shtml

3% reporting

Obama - 57%

Hillary - 42%

Given Obama's propensity to go up as the night goes on, this does not look like Clinton will be having a good night in Virginia.

[Gabu]

Bit early to say that, but nothing from Arlington, Alexandria, Norfolk, Richmond, etc. yet.

Yeah, I suppose, but that still is nonetheless the general trend: Clinton is at her best at the start and then as big cities come in she goes down as the night wears on.

[Gabu]

4% in Obama 64% to 35% Clinton

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2008/67F01F96-1E82-472E-8051-CF1B1C3786A4/Unofficial/1_s.shtml

This has more up-to-date results, straight from the Virginia government.

[Gabu]

4% in Obama 64% to 35% Clinton

Is it possible for Obama to rival 70% tonight?

No.  I don't think Obama has ever outdone exit poll results.

[Gabu]

With 10% reporting, Obama leads 60-39, up from 57% a little while ago.

Alcon, get my accolades ready when my prediction that Obama goes up as the night goes on comes true.

(kidding, kidding)

[Gabu]

It's really too early to say "Obama is going to keep going up."  The counties reporting so far are just random, and none of them have reported significantly.

In Virginia elections, the conservative rural areas always come in before the more democratic cities and NOVA because they have fewer ppl. Remember Allen vs Webb in 2006: Allen led for most of the night until the cities came in for Webb, allowing him to win narrowly.

Probably the most glorious results watch ever. Except maybe Edwards vs. Clinton in Iowa.

Heck yeah, I was there and I remember it very well.

[Gabu]

Voting in Maryland has been extended to 9:30 eastern.

WHAT

NO

That means I'll be at an evening class when polls close.

[Gabu]

Obama winning 10/11 CDs

But, boy, does VA-09 look ugly. 71% for Clinton so far.

What's VA-09 like?

[Gabu]

wtf-chesterfield county:

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2008/67F01F96-1E82-472E-8051-CF1B1C3786A4/Unofficial/00_041_s.shtml

Obama 12,280, Clinton 0?

wtfowned?