WI PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Obama leads Clinton by 13%

[TheresNoMoney]

2/16-2/17, 822 Likely Voters, +/-3.4% MOE

Obama    53%
Clinton    40%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Wisconsin_Release_021808.pdf

[Verily]

Would be nice.

[© tweed]

not much movement from the last PPP poll.  they've been more favorable to Obama than other pollsters, perhaps due to a different turnout model (read the pdf - it said that with a 'standard turnout model' Obama is only +3)

[SPQR]

I only trust ARG.
And 13% seems a bit too much.

[Alcon]

I only trust ARG.

I'm sorry, I know those words, but somehow, putting them together...it just doesn't make sense.

[Person Man]

I only trust ARG.

I'm sorry, I know those words, but somehow, putting them together...it just doesn't make sense.

I never heard those words in that order. Like Compassionate and Conservative.

[Wiz in Wis]

Their internals appear contradictory. If they are weighted in the crosstabs, as they seem to be, then, yes, they have a high percentage of African Americans weighted. But these numbers appear to suggest that PPP expects only 20% independent turnout in the Dem Primary... in 2004, it was like 30-35%... wouldn't that mean that their baseline is still underweighting a key Obama demo?

[Verily]

Their internals appear contradictory. If they are weighted in the crosstabs, as they seem to be, then, yes, they have a high percentage of African Americans weighted. But these numbers appear to suggest that PPP expects only 20% independent turnout in the Dem Primary... in 2004, it was like 30-35%... wouldn't that mean that their baseline is still underweighting a key Obama demo?

Maybe; 2004 was not competitive, however, so comparing the two is not the greatest strategy. I'd also like to know whether Wisconsin is like New Jersey in the state being overwhelmingly registered independent.

[Mr. Morden]

I'd also like to know whether Wisconsin is like New Jersey in the state being overwhelmingly registered independent.

There is no party registration in Wisconsin.

Also, 2004 wasn't quite "not competitive".  Dean and Edwards were still in the race (though they were kind of walking dead men....not quite as out of it as Huckabee is now).  Both of them invested a lot into WI as a sort of last stand.  (Wasn't quite the last stand for Edwards.)  The 2004 WI primary result was:

Kerry 40%
Edwards 34%
Dean 18%

[Wiz in Wis]

Their internals appear contradictory. If they are weighted in the crosstabs, as they seem to be, then, yes, they have a high percentage of African Americans weighted. But these numbers appear to suggest that PPP expects only 20% independent turnout in the Dem Primary... in 2004, it was like 30-35%... wouldn't that mean that their baseline is still underweighting a key Obama demo?

Maybe; 2004 was not competitive, however, so comparing the two is not the greatest strategy. I'd also like to know whether Wisconsin is like New Jersey in the state being overwhelmingly registered independent.

Well, I disagree that 2004 was not competitive, Edwards came in close to Kerry, but I see your point.  What I wonder is if independents will overwhelmingly go to the Dem Primary because the Rep primary is settled. Our indies tend to vote at high rates, we are a high turnout state. I think that this, combined with ground teams, may be the dagger in the Hillary attempt here

PS saw Michelle Obama today... she is the epitome of class. More of her please, she is AMAZING

[Stranger in a strange land]

I'd also like to know whether Wisconsin is like New Jersey in the state being overwhelmingly registered independent.

There is no party registration in Wisconsin.

Also, 2004 wasn't quite "not competitive".  Dean and Edwards were still in the race (though they were kind of walking dead men....not quite as out of it as Huckabee is now).  Both of them invested a lot into WI as a sort of last stand.  (Wasn't quite the last stand for Edwards.)  The 2004 WI primary result was:

Kerry 40%
Edwards 34%
Dean 18%

I remember 2004 in Wisconsin as being competitive long after it should have been, or something like that. Also, there was no republican primary (though the Republican race this year is basically over, but not everyone has gotten the memo)

[Gustaf]

Obviously, the independents are likely to be fewer than they were in 2004 given that no matter how uncompetitive one thinks the GOP primary is it was certainly moreso 4 years ago. Wisconsin was Dean's last stand and it was also Edward's best performance in the later part of the primary campaign (aside from NC of course).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wisconsin's about 6% black, so in a 50/50 state they'd make up about 12% of Democratic voters, as they have here. But the independents and cross-over Republicans will affect that, so it's probably closer to 9-10%. Still should be higher than 2004 though, unless something like Virginia happens (loads of new white voters vote and the black vote is unchanged, resulting in a slight drop in percentage, but that certainly didn't hurt Obama in Virginia.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

These guys know what they're doing apparently.

[Person Man]

These guys know what they're doing apparently.