If dems did winner takes all

[ukchris82]

If dems did a winner takes all in the states that republicans do, what would the delegate totals be?


Cheers

Chris

[Gabu]

Obviously Clinton, due to California and New York.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

Assuming the total pledged delegates is the same:


Obama: 1190
Clinton: 1075

That doesn't include MI and FL or the superdelegates.


So Obama would have a bigger lead in that case.  (But would be more susceptible to a fall in Ohio and Texas)

[Gabu]

Assuming the total pledged delegates is the same:


Obama: 1190
Clinton: 1075

That doesn't include MI and FL or the superdelegates.


So Obama would have a bigger lead in that case.  (But would be more susceptible to a fall in Ohio and Texas)

Eh?  Where does Obama pick up all those delegates?  I figured for sure Clinton would have a lead, what with her winning most of the big states.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

Eh?  Where does Obama pick up all those delegates? 

IA, SC, AL, AK, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, UT, LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, VI, MD, VA. 


Lots of small states tend to beat a few big states. Though as I said, were it WTA, Clinton would be in a better position now because of Ohio and Texas. Obama would have to win one of them.

[Gabu]

The original poster specified that this is only "winner takes all in the states that republicans do".  In other words, if the Republicans don't have winner take all in a state, neither do the Democrats in this scenario.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

Ah well, funnily enough TPM Election Central has done the same thing today and come up with slightly different numbers. Where did I give Obama the extra ones, I wonder

Edit: I got ahead of myself and gave him Hawaii and Wisconsin! Oops.

   Delegates
Obama   1,096
Clinton   1,075

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/hillary_would_have_benefitted.php#more

[Trilobyte]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/02/15/us/politics/20080215_DELEGATES_GRAPHIC.html

Look towards the bottom of the graphic.

[Mr. Morden]

In a 2-person race, PR actually tends to (effectively) end things more quickly, since it becomes really hard to catch up once you've fallen behind (though I guess the possibility of superdelegates overturning the pledged delegates complicates that somewhat).  With WTA, even if you're far behind, you can make up a lot of ground with just a few 51%-49% wins.