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Author Topic: Our prediction map.  (Read 7112 times)
Josh/Devilman88
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« on: February 17, 2008, 01:45:12 pm »
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I have a few questions. Why is NC strong republican? NC should be lean, or that is what the polls are saying right now. Also AZ why is it lean republican? It should be strong republican. Also IA should be lean to strong democratic.

This is what it should look like.

« Last Edit: April 24, 2008, 09:24:13 am by Josh22 »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2008, 01:49:26 pm »
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West Virginia is NOT strong R
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2008, 01:57:37 pm »
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West Virginia is NOT strong R

In a Obama vs McCain races it is, But I should have put it as lean Republican.
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« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2008, 06:25:29 pm »
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I have a few questions. Why is NC strong republican? NC should be lean, or that is what the polls are saying right now. Also AZ why is it lean republican? It should be strong republican. Also IA should be lean to strong democratic.

This is what it should look like.



I really think in a Mccain vs Obama race, NC will be strong rep(>10% margin). If you think otherwise let me know why. As for AZ it has a huge latino population and thus can never be strong republican. The latinos are pretty conservative though so the republican party is in a good position there.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2008, 07:15:50 pm »
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I have a few questions. Why is NC strong republican? NC should be lean, or that is what the polls are saying right now. Also AZ why is it lean republican? It should be strong republican. Also IA should be lean to strong democratic.

This is what it should look like.



I really think in a Mccain vs Obama race, NC will be strong rep(>10% margin). If you think otherwise let me know why. As for AZ it has a huge latino population and thus can never be strong republican. The latinos are pretty conservative though so the republican party is in a good position there.

NC has alot of college towns with big populations for one. 22% of the state is black. The triangle will go to Obama 60% or better. But who knows, Nov is a long time away.
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« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2008, 07:17:08 pm »
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Is bright red supposed to be the less Democratic states? I thought that New Jersey would be at least as solidly Democratic as New York.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2008, 10:09:26 pm »
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Is bright red supposed to be the less Democratic states? I thought that New Jersey would be at least as solidly Democratic as New York.

McCain will do well in southern NJ.
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« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2008, 10:43:33 pm »
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I don't really think you can claim the prediction map should look like anything until after the Democratic nominee has been determined.  Until then, you're going to have a mix of Obama v McCain and Clinton v McCain and those two maps are very different.
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« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2008, 12:14:53 am »
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I'd say that Obama v. McCain is....



Safe for Obama - 179
Lean to Obama - 80
Tossups - 77
Lean to McCain - 13
Safe for McCain - 189

I don't see Obama v. McCain as a 50/50 election.  More like a 3-5 pt. national advantage for Obama.  I do think McCain has a pretty large safe base however that I would guess Obama would have a hard time winning regardless.  I think Obama's going to get his overall nat'l advantage from running up huge numbers in safe, progressive-minded Democratic states.  (ex. hitting 60% in NY, MA, IL, maybe CA)  McCain does well in keeping the GOP base intact, but it just doesn't feel like the Republican's year if they go against someone like Obama whose likability extends across the spectrum. 

Clinton v. McCain



Safe for Clinton - 174
Leans to Clinton - 104
Tossup - 68
Leans to McCain - 14
Safe for McCain - 178

Different election.  Clinton plays better in the Upper South and Rust Belt, but not as good out West.  McCain's support relatively the same, although I think he would do better in Democratic states against Hillary. 
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« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2008, 02:45:09 am »
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I have a few questions. Why is NC strong republican? NC should be lean, or that is what the polls are saying right now. Also AZ why is it lean republican? It should be strong republican. Also IA should be lean to strong democratic.

This is what it should look like.



I really think in a Mccain vs Obama race, NC will be strong rep(>10% margin). If you think otherwise let me know why. As for AZ it has a huge latino population and thus can never be strong republican. The latinos are pretty conservative though so the republican party is in a good position there.

NC has alot of college towns with big populations for one. 22% of the state is black. The triangle will go to Obama 60% or better. But who knows, Nov is a long time away.

I think simple math demonstrates that Obama has NC.  Assuming that 26 or 27% (about what it was in 2004) of the electorate is African-American, that they vote for Obama 93 or 94% (this may be a conservative estimate), and whites vote for Obama around 34 or 35% (his highest share of the vote in match-ups against Reps. according to the latest surveys and w/o additional votes from the undecided column), Obama will win (that's without factoring in the 3-5% of the electorate that will probably be Hispanic-American, Asian-American, Native American, mixed race, etc.  I'm fairly certain he wins the state, especially with a Republican based demoralized by the *selection* of a limousine conservative as the nominee.  Obama just has to strike the right chords in this state:  a lot of populism and shades of progressivism.  Virginia & Florida should be just about the same despite a large presence of veterans (after all, more veterans have donated to Obama than 100 years McCain).  In NC, I wouldn't be surprised to see large swings in Onslow & Cumberland counties.  If people want to make up stories about North Carolina and (all) white North Carolinians being whatever stereotypes are hoisted upon us or implied by the red state/blue state narrative conjured by the neoliberal media, then I think that they're in for a rude awakening come November.
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« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2008, 05:59:31 am »
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I have a few questions. Why is NC strong republican? NC should be lean, or that is what the polls are saying right now. Also AZ why is it lean republican? It should be strong republican. Also IA should be lean to strong democratic.

This is what it should look like.



I really think in a Mccain vs Obama race, NC will be strong rep(>10% margin). If you think otherwise let me know why. As for AZ it has a huge latino population and thus can never be strong republican. The latinos are pretty conservative though so the republican party is in a good position there.

NC has alot of college towns with big populations for one. 22% of the state is black. The triangle will go to Obama 60% or better. But who knows, Nov is a long time away.

I think simple math demonstrates that Obama has NC.  Assuming that 26 or 27% (about what it was in 2004) of the electorate is African-American, that they vote for Obama 93 or 94% (this may be a conservative estimate), and whites vote for Obama around 34 or 35% (his highest share of the vote in match-ups against Reps. according to the latest surveys and w/o additional votes from the undecided column), Obama will win (that's without factoring in the 3-5% of the electorate that will probably be Hispanic-American, Asian-American, Native American, mixed race, etc.  I'm fairly certain he wins the state, especially with a Republican based demoralized by the *selection* of a limousine conservative as the nominee.  Obama just has to strike the right chords in this state:  a lot of populism and shades of progressivism.  Virginia & Florida should be just about the same despite a large presence of veterans (after all, more veterans have donated to Obama than 100 years McCain).  In NC, I wouldn't be surprised to see large swings in Onslow & Cumberland counties.  If people want to make up stories about North Carolina and (all) white North Carolinians being whatever stereotypes are hoisted upon us or implied by the red state/blue state narrative conjured by the neoliberal media, then I think that they're in for a rude awakening come November.

I hope you are right.
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« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2008, 03:39:34 pm »
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Why would Obama do so well among white voters in North Carolina? There is a large black vote but in 2004 there were just as many voters who identified themselves as white conservative protestants. Bush got 95% of that vote and I think it's reasonable to expect McCain to beat Obama as badly as Obama beats him within that vote. That leaves the middle ground of your average North Carolina whites. I wouldn't count on Obama winning those.
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« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2008, 05:47:14 pm »
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Then again, we're assuming that turnout among white conservative protestants will be commensurate with increases in the North Carolina electorate from 2004 to 2008 as other groups (African-Americans, non-WCPs, etc.).  That is, any increases in the black electorate will be matched by other demographics, and in an Obama/McCain contest with a Bush/Kerry contest.  I don't think that's true.  If Harvey Gantt can pull 47% against the Helms machine in the 90s (i.e., not a good time to be a Democratic candidate in North Carolina, regardless of race/gender/ideology), I don't see Obama having trouble either.  I will concede that NC is lost if Obama thinks it is and refuses to contest the state from the outset.  If he wants to assume that the map is going to be static, and go after latte liberals in Colorado (which also isn't a winning strategy), then he'll have his work cut out for him.  If he wants to base his candidacy on volatile polling with suspect stratification (PPPs sample only has African-Americans as being 18% of the electorate, and looking at the numbers within that sub-sample aren't sound since it is smaller than that of the larger white sub-sample), the he can expect to do similarly in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Colorado, etc.
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« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2008, 09:47:07 pm »
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I see it more of this way:

McCain v. Clinton



Safe McCain: 128
Lean McCain: 90
Tossup: 110
Lean Clinton: 63
Safe Clinton: 145

Obama v. Clinton



Safe McCain: 174
Lean McCain: 46
Tossup: 137
Lean Obama: 124
Strong Obama: 57
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« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2008, 10:09:59 pm »
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Why would Clinton be more competitive in Kansas than Obama?!

Also, LOL at Clinton doing better than Obama in NH.
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2008, 01:44:39 am »
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Demcrats are too optimistic about VA, and WAY TOO optimistic about NC. McCain will win both of these states
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2008, 04:58:14 pm »
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UPDATED-ONE..


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« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2008, 05:14:40 pm »
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H A C K
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2008, 07:48:24 pm »
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H A C K

I'm not a Hack, I am just going by what the polls say.
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« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2008, 09:04:29 am »
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H A C K

I'm not a Hack, I am just going by what the polls say.

You actually base your predictions on polls?

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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2008, 10:28:36 am »
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H A C K

I'm not a Hack, I am just going by what the polls say.

You actually base your predictions on polls?



They play a part in it, yes. Also that is an Obama vs McCain map. I'll do a Clinton vs McCain map later today.
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Duke
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« Reply #21 on: February 22, 2008, 01:23:11 pm »
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The best Obama can do is probably 45% in NC. Kerry got 43% in 2004. I could see a 55-45 race, but nothing better. The Dems are being too optimistic about NC and VA. If he wins either of them, he wouldn't have had to win them.
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« Reply #22 on: February 22, 2008, 01:24:09 pm »
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The best Obama can do is probably 45% in NC. Kerry got 43% in 2004. I could see a 55-45 race, but nothing better. The Dems are being too optimistic about NC and VA. If he wins either of them, he wouldn't have had to win them.

North Carolina, yes, but I think Virginia will be 2004's Florida.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #23 on: February 22, 2008, 01:26:24 pm »
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The best Obama can do is probably 45% in NC. Kerry got 43% in 2004. I could see a 55-45 race, but nothing better. The Dems are being too optimistic about NC and VA. If he wins either of them, he wouldn't have had to win them.

Obama will get any where from 45-52%. I believe NC will shock alot of people this year and swing strongly toward the Democrats this election year.
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« Reply #24 on: February 22, 2008, 01:27:00 pm »
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H A C K

I'm not a Hack, I am just going by what the polls say.

You actually base your predictions on polls?

Makes more sense than whatever the people predicting Santorum to win were basing them on.
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