Wisconsin & Hawaii Democratic Results Discussion

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Income Levels:

Over $50,000 59%

Under $50,000 41%

Good for Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Only 27% deciding in the last seven days is good for Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So in other words, I am more educated than 60% of the state of Wisconsin?

People need to quit saying I'm stupid.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Virginia and Maryland exit polls showed Obama making inroads into Clinton's base. If these polls are correct, Obama has only continued that, and to say Clinton is in big trouble is a severe understatement.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

lets count some votes before gloating.

if she loses 55-43...that is survivable.

Clinton needs to start winning by margins like that to have a chance at the pledged delegates.

And J. J. gets MAJOR owned.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

0%:
Obama 61%
Clinton 39%

Haha, never trust results with 0% in. Often California will have some right-wing part of Orange county report first. I remember that after they called California for Gore, Bush was up something like 20 points in the first results.

I remember a hilarious Free Republic thread where DeWine led with 0% in and the Freepers were screaming about how obvious it was that the polls were so off and they always benefit Democrats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama winning blacks 90-7

That's obvious. What percentage of the electorate are they? That's the real question.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama winning blacks 90-7

That's obvious. What percentage of the electorate are they? That's the real question.

only 8%, which is less than 2004, IIRC



MSNBC Obama

No, in 2004 it was 6%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Obama wins Hawaii and Democrats Abroad (should be announced sometime later this month), he'll have 11 straight wins. As for the Washington primary, I don't think CNN is going to bother to report the results.

I want to see Washington, just to see how much Obama overperforms in caucuses.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, HRC's theme music at her rally in Ohio.

What is it?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, HRC's theme music at her rally in Ohio.

What is it?

Dolly Parton's "Workin' 9 to 5."

Oh...wow. That is just hilarious.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama's winning Brown County (Green Bay).

That's it. Game over.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Menominee County, Wisconsin
Obama: 206
Clinton: 190
100% reporting


Just an interesting tidbit from the most Native-heavy county we've seen results for yet.

Hmmmmm....I was really looking forward to the results from here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

look at raw vote totals at 37%; total democratic voters 340,000.  Total republican 130,000.  Same pattern as other primaries

What exactly is the reason to vote in the Republican primary again?

Ask J. J., who believed McCain would win over more independents than Obama in Virginia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ooooo.....the margin is gettting bigger?

Milwaukee

Which on paper shouldn't be that strong for Obama. Sure he'd win the blacks easily but the white population of Milwaukee is the type Obama usually got murdered in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is there anything important in Texas downballot this year? No statewide offices.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama is doing better in Milwaukee and the blue collar counties than he is in Waukesha and most of the affluent Milwaukee suburbs. That's strange.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

+10 delegates for Obama with the current numbers. Will likely change but definitely a severe blow to Hillary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It would have been a pretty close election on the Dem side without the GOP crossover.

Obama is going to win Wisconsin by a 13%-16% margin. It's ridiculous to claim that it was because of GOP crossover.

OK, whatever. I made my case that the margin would have been considerably narrower without Pubbie action. You just say I am wrong. How helpful.

Why is Obama running lower in Waukesha and the GOP suburbs than the blue collar counties then?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Results by   CD for those who might be interested. Obama's margin is paper thin in two CD's. Someone else can figure out the delegates awarded for the Dems. On the GOP side, Huckabee is in the hunt in two CD's and six delegates

The paper-thin margins are in 6-delegate CDs (WI-01 and WI-07), so it really doesn't matter who wins in terms of delegate apportionment. Either would need a wide margin to take a 4-2 lead in delegates.

Which is precisely what Obama has in CD 4.  In fact it's a shame it's only 6 delegates, with the current numbers if it were an 8 delegate district, Obama would just barely get 6 delegates to Clinton's 2.

Yup; I did the numerical breakdown a few pages back; it's Obama +6 on the districts (winning the two 5-delegate districts as well as going 4-2 in WI-04 and 5-3 in WI-02). Obama might still eke out a 6-2 margin in WI-02, depending on where the late-counted votes are from.

Unfortunately there's more out in Columbia County than Dane County.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nora is overrated (in looks).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's with Clark County?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

CLINTON     666     23%
OBAMA    2,258    77%

HA! How appropriate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

**Preliminary partial results of the Hawai'i Presidential Preference Poll :

With about 40% of Congressional District One reporting, ballots cast in the district are reported as follows:
 
Barack Obama 4,302
Hillary Clinton  1,542
Dennis Kucinich and John Edwards received votes falling far short of the 15% required to be allocated a delegate.

With about 20% of Congressional district Two reporting, ballots cast in the district are reported as follows:

Barack Obama 1,134
Hillary Clinton 333
Dennis Kucinich and John Edwards received votes falling far short of the 15% required to be allocated a delegate.

Notice:  The next preliminary partial result will be posted shortly after the live announcement at 11:00 p.m. HST**