Wisconsin & Hawaii Democratic Results Discussion

[Alcon]

Income Levels:

Over $50,000 59%

Under $50,000 41%

I'd heard this was supposed to be about 50/50?

[Alcon]

Yes, it has.

In the Maryland exit poll (random choice):

- 46% of voters said Clinton was most qualified, and they split Clinton 79%, Obama 18%
- 50% said Obama was most qualified, and they split Obama 96%, Clinton 1%

The Maryland model indicates that the exit poll will come out Obama 57%, Clinton 43%.

Virginia model would have Obama winning by a bit more.

It's looking like a double-digit win, quite possibly.

[Alcon]

Maryland was also closed. The dynamics will be different in an open race.

The Virginia model comes out to:

Obama 57.6%
Clinton 38.4%

Or a margin of a little over 18 points.

[Alcon]

These are going to be some very interesting results...unless people are telling the truth about candidate selections but not demographics, or vice-versa, Obama has made some in-roads into traditional Clinton demographics.

[Alcon]

For the benefit of those of us who failed maths at school*, what would that be expected to translate as in terms of overall numbers?

*almost

Not enough information there to say, but everything I'm seeing indicates a percentage margin of 15%+.

[Alcon]

If they are actually accurate...

True, true

[Alcon]

For the benefit of those of us who failed maths at school*, what would that be expected to translate as in terms of overall numbers?

*almost

Not enough information there to say, but everything I'm seeing indicates a percentage margin of 15%+.

How big have gender gaps usually been this year?

Depends.  The potential for larger variance is probably greater in a state with the racial make-up of Wisconsin (for obvious reasons)

[Alcon]

How long til the polls close?

Two hours

[Alcon]

...which means chances are we have a major disagreement between exit polls here.

[Alcon]

exit polls?

Two different strains here, one vaguely showing Obama up somewhere around 10, others showing him up over 15.

[Alcon]

Well, gee, I think CNN may have just sort-of implied they might call Wisconsin upon close.

They at least used the same wording that they have used in the past when that happened.

But it was unclear...we'll see.

[Alcon]

Exit poll says Obama by 12.

[Alcon]

Here's the exit poll:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#WIDEM

Obama leads 61-35 among men, 51-49 among women. That translates to 55-43, I think (not doing the math, just eyeballing).

Obama 55.3%
Clinton 43.0%

Nifty cross-multiplying Excel spreadsheet. 

[Alcon]

Clinton wins White Democrats with only 51%.  Youch.

[Alcon]

Clinton wins White Democrats with only 51%.  Youch.

She got the same in California.

I take it you're trying to make a juxtaposition, here, not saying that we can directly compare the group in the two states...

[Alcon]

CNN projects Wisconsin for Obama.

[Alcon]

Good speech by Clinton.

[Alcon]

Ooooo.....the margin is gettting bigger?

Milwaukee

[Alcon]

About 8% reporting in Washington

Clinton 49%
Obama 48%

[Alcon]

So about Hawaii...

Another hour, right?

[Alcon]

So I totally skipped over this useful bit of info:

With 10% in:
Obama: 77%
Clinton: 23%



...O_o

Where are you seeing this?

[Alcon]

Technically says "less than 10%," which could mean just one precinct (or, more likely, one caucus site), but...

If Obama is getting 77% anywhere, Clinton is probably done.

[Alcon]

CNN reports 8% in with those numbers