Wisconsin & Hawaii Democratic Results Discussion

[Mr. Morden]

Do we want just one thread for each party for all of today's primaries and caucuses?  We've got WI & HI on the Dem. side, plus the nonbinding WA primary.  On the GOP side, we've got both WI & WA.  Rather than have 5 threads, should we go with the recent tradition of one thread for all of today's primaries/caucuses on the Dem. side and one thread for all of today's primaries/caucuses on the GOP side?

[Mr. Morden]

Any exit polls yet?

Reliable exit poll leaks never happen anymore until after 5pm (which I guess is just about now).  Still, it's a bit early.  Maybe within the next half hour or so.

[Mr. Morden]

Here are some of the early generic numbers from the Wisconsin exit poll:

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j-rJkxLbJTFVe7_sztS_x_XcNpQwD8UTL7202

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[Mr. Morden]

Turnout reports from earlier today:

Low turnout in Dane County because of weather.  Milwaukee "steady" to "busy".  Waukesha County turnout "average"....Waukesha Municipal Clerk Tom Neill "said his office was holding to a 40 percent turnout projection."

http://blogs.wispolitics.com/election/2008/02/early-turnout-mixed-for-key-counties.html

Later in the day, "The potential for student votes to deeply impact the Wisconsin primary seems to be taking shape in Milwaukee, where City Election Commission Executive Director Sue Edman said turnout has been steadily busy at UW-Milwaukee, Milwaukee School of Engineering, and Marquette University."

http://blogs.wispolitics.com/election/2008/02/milwaukee-students-turning-out-in-big.html

[Mr. Morden]

Additional exit poll info here:

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4312579&page=1

"a substantial majority of Democratic voters are women, more than usual for a Wisconsin Democratic primary....In the Democratic race, nearly half the voters are liberals -- up from 2004......The preliminary results also indicate that more seniors than usual are voting in the Democratic race -- up from their 2004 level, and also potentially a high for Democratic voters this cycle, though again it'll take final data later tonight to see that holds."

[Mr. Morden]

From The New Republic:

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/02/19/hint-hint.aspx

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[Mr. Morden]

Again, Fox News Channel leakes like a sieve with the exit polls, and Time's The Page has the details:

http://thepage.time.com/fox-preliminary-exits-for-wisconsin-democrats/

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For those playing at home, "Obama slightly ahead among women and lower income voters" presumably translates into "Obama leading overall".

[Mr. Morden]

It looks like the exit polls for MO also had Obama up very narrowly (by just 1 point) among women:

http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/exitPoll.shtml?state=MO&race=P&jurisdiction=0&party=D

and he only won the state by the narrowest of margins.  But I think the exit polls for MO were just plain wrong, as they appear to give a 5 point lead in the "under $50,000" category and a 14 point lead in the "over $50,000" category....which clearly doesn't square with the closeness of the final result.

[Mr. Morden]

For the benefit of those of us who failed maths at school*, what would that be expected to translate as in terms of overall numbers?

*almost

Not enough information there to say, but everything I'm seeing indicates a percentage margin of 15%+.

How big have gender gaps usually been this year?

Doing some more digging, it looks like MO was an oddball with a nearly nonexistent gender gap in the exit polls.  For most other states (outside the South), it looks like the gender gap has been in the neighborhood of 20 points.  Thas is Clinton-Obama shows a 20 point swing between men and women.

[Mr. Morden]

Oh, looks like CT had a 29 point gender gap.  Not sure if that was the highest.

[Mr. Morden]

Has it been as large as 30pts anywhere? (that figure is probably proof that I fail at maths isn't it? Anyway, I guessed that if Obama were to lead Women by 2pt and overall by 15, he'd need to lead Men by about 30? Is that right? Not a rhetorical question or anything, I really do suck at this sort of thing)

It depends on the number of men vs. the number of women voting in the Democratic primary.  If it's 50/50, then women by 2 and overall by 15 means men by 28.  (The overall number being exactly in the middle.)  If it's 40% men and 60% women in the Dem. primary, then women by 2 and overall by 15 means men by 34-35 points, which would be a super large gender gap (higher than anywhere else that we've seen?).

[Mr. Morden]

High turnout expected in Hawaii:

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080219/NEWS01/802190336/-1/NEWS01

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[Mr. Morden]

Regarding, Hawaii, according to this:

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080219/NEWS01/802190336/-1/NEWS01

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According to this:

http://www.hawaiidemocrats.org/

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How many timezones is HI behind Eastern Time?  5?

[Mr. Morden]

You can find some reports here from Hawaii:

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

indicating that turnout is enormous.

[Mr. Morden]

Hawaii is apparently starting to come in...even though its still 0% across the board.

In what sense is it "starting to come in"?

[Mr. Morden]

Polls are closed. What now?

No, there are no polls, since it's a caucus.  The caucus voting is already supposed to have taken place, over 30 min. ago (though they might be running late because of the huge crowds).  We're just waiting on the vote tallies, and the Hawaii Democratic Party says they probably won't have anything for at least another half hour:

http://www.hawaiidemocrats.org/

(This is assuming that I have my time zone calculations right.)

[Mr. Morden]

CNN is now reporting results:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#HI

8% in so far.

Also:

http://www.hawaiidemocrats.org/

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[Mr. Morden]

Those preliminary numbers are with 26 of the 347 precincts reporting.  Another update should be coming within 10 minutes:

http://www.hawaiidemocrats.org/

[Mr. Morden]

Over 37,000 people participated in the Hawaii caucus.  The previous all time high for participation was 5000.

[Mr. Morden]

No, the big demographic that Obama has yet to win over is voters who live in states where his name is not on the ballot.  Because remember, Hillary Clinton is undefeated in states where Obama's name isn't on the ballot.  And if Clinton should win the nomination, then Obama's name won't be on the ballot anywhere in November!  Only Clinton can win those "Obama's name not on the ballot" states, so she's clearly the most electable.

* I stole the above argument from a commentor at TNR.