Wisconsin & Hawaii Democratic Results Discussion

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Info from our trusty pals at CBS News: this electorate is very white; only four in ten have a "college degree." They're "less affluent" than Dems in other states. The percentage of late deciders is declining: only 27% made up their minds within the last seven days.
-- Issue number one is, of course, the economy, followed by health care... adding the economy and health care brings you to nearly 70% of the electorate.

All of that is, I think, to be expected of Wisconsin.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

These are going to be some very interesting results...unless people are telling the truth about candidate selections but not demographics, or vice-versa, Obama has made some in-roads into traditional Clinton demographics.

...and the results would also be interesting if people have been lying. Either way; interesting. Which is all I did hope for

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Again, Fox News Channel leakes like a sieve with the exit polls, and Time's The Page has the details:

http://thepage.time.com/fox-preliminary-exits-for-wisconsin-democrats/

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For those playing at home, "Obama slightly ahead among women and lower income voters" presumably translates into "Obama leading overall".

For the benefit of those of us who failed maths at school*, what would that be expected to translate as in terms of overall numbers?

*almost

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Again, Fox News Channel leakes like a sieve with the exit polls, and Time's The Page has the details:

http://thepage.time.com/fox-preliminary-exits-for-wisconsin-democrats/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

For those playing at home, "Obama slightly ahead among women and lower income voters" presumably translates into "Obama leading overall".

For the benefit of those of us who failed maths at school*, what would that be expected to translate as in terms of overall numbers?

*almost

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the benefit of those of us who failed maths at school*, what would that be expected to translate as in terms of overall numbers?

*almost

Not enough information there to say, but everything I'm seeing indicates a percentage margin of 15%+.

How big have gender gaps usually been this year?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the benefit of those of us who failed maths at school*, what would that be expected to translate as in terms of overall numbers?

*almost

Not enough information there to say, but everything I'm seeing indicates a percentage margin of 15%+.

How big have gender gaps usually been this year?

Depends.  The potential for larger variance is probably greater in a state with the racial make-up of Wisconsin (for obvious reasons)

Has it been as large as 30pts anywhere? (that figure is probably proof that I fail at maths isn't it? Anyway, I guessed that if Obama were to lead Women by 2pt and overall by 15, he'd need to lead Men by about 30? Is that right? Not a rhetorical question or anything, I really do suck at this sort of thing)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How long til the polls close?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...which means chances are we have a major disagreement between exit polls here.

Not my thing. I think I should sleep now, look at results later, rather than stay up and wait.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...which means chances are we have a major disagreement between exit polls here.

Not my thing. I think I should sleep now, look at results later, rather than stay up and wait.

Oh, and it's another thing to be (maybe) expected of Wisconsin. Hope the results are interesting. Have fun everyone.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting, but not really surprising (but then what result would have been surprising? Hah). Better look at county results now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clinton wins Adams, Burnett, Douglas, Forest, Iron (under 50%), Juneau, Marinette, Oconto (under 50%), Polk, Trempealeau (under 50%), cracks 60% nowhere.

Obama cracks 60% in Dane, Eau Claire, Milwaukee, Winnebago, wins Langlade with under 50%.

Someone make a map.

Made one a few hours ago:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can you people post sordid financial stuff outside threads that should be devoted to holy elections?