The official Peak Oil thread (or why oil prices keep going up)

[Angel of Death]

In case you're not already aware of the Hubbert Peak AKA Peak Oil from other sources, it's simply the application of the law of diminishing returns towards oil extraction. Now, in case you're wondering "What does this have to do with anything?", it appears that global oil production is set to peak any time now (no more than a few years from now), after which acquiring oil becomes a zero-sum and then a negative-sum game.

With demand already outnumbering supply before that (think of China and India), predicted events range from (permanent) recession, depression, a massive die-off, global (nuclear) war for resources, a return to a pre-industrial age and even outright human extinction or, if you're more optimistic, a technological breakthrough to continue the American Way of Life (tm) because of the huge incentive.

Keeping Peak Oil in mind does put an interesting perspective on the events that happened the past few years, don't you think?

Oh yeah, before you start going on an ad-hominem spree towards the proponents of this theory, remember that they come from all over the political spectrum.

For one particularly pessimistic outline, try http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Weprobably have enough oil to use for at least a century despite teh fact that proven reserves are only able to last for a few decades.  Why? It's because of the way proven reserves are defined.: "Oil that can be profitaby extracted using existing technology and at current prices."  For over a century as the price of oil as changed and the techniques to extract petoleum have improved, the level of proven reserves has hovered fairly constantly in the 30-40 year range.  Increasing the price of oil makes new extraction techinques profitable to use, and once they are actually in use, the cost of using them goes down as the technique is refined., which eventually causes the price of oil to go back down. Of course there is a limit to all this somwhere.  Then what will happen of course is that the price of petrofuels will rise until they  become comparable to the price of biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel, at which point, production will begin to shift towards them instead, assuming that a economical replacement for the internal combustion engine never comes along.  There is no need to panic over the price of oil.

[David S]

I don't think I'm ready to go hide in the closet yet.  Coal is quite abundant in the U.S. and it is widely used for producing electricity. Hydroelectric, and nuclear can provide a great deal of electricity too. So producing electricity should be OK. For home heating natural gas is needed. Supplies of that may be diminishing but a potential source for methane is being studied now. Its methane hydrate, a mixture of methane and water ice which exists in abundance on the ocean floor.
Cars would be the biggest problem if indeed we did run low on oil. Some solutions would be; sell the Hummer and buy a Jetta, take a bus or train, stay home once in a while, switch to electric cars. They don't have the range of gas powered vehicles, and there are numerous other problems but it would beat having no wheels.

[Shira]

And what do you think is the REAL reason for the war in Iraq?

[David S]

And what do you think is the REAL reason for the war in Iraq?

And what do you think is the REAL reason for the war in Iraq?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The last time I saw data the amount of oil taken from Iraq was about $10 billion. The war has cost about $100 billion so far.
So fighting the war for oil is not a financially sound idea.

Other possible reasons:
1 When George H.W. Bush lost the election Saddam made the observation; well look at that, Bush is gone and I'm still here. That ticked off the Bush family. To add insult to injury Saddam tried to have Bush senior "whacked". That really angered the Bushs especially in light of Clinton's minimal response to it.
2. Certain well connected people or firms get lucrative defense contracts.
3. Expands the U.S. sphere of influence.

[freedomburns]

In case you're not already aware of the Hubbert Peak AKA Peak Oil from other sources, it's simply the application of the law of diminishing returns towards oil extraction. Now, in case you're wondering "What does this have to do with anything?", it appears that global oil production is set to peak any time now (no more than a few years from now), after which acquiring oil becomes a zero-sum and then a negative-sum game.

With demand already outnumbering supply before that (think of China and India), predicted events range from (permanent) recession, depression, a massive die-off, global (nuclear) war for resources, a return to a pre-industrial age and even outright human extinction or, if you're more optimistic, a technological breakthrough to continue the American Way of Life (tm) because of the huge incentive.

Keeping Peak Oil in mind does put an interesting perspective on the events that happened the past few years, don't you think?

Oh yeah, before you start going on an ad-hominem spree towards the proponents of this theory, remember that they come from all over the political spectrum.

For one particularly pessimistic outline, try http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Here are some other great links on this issue.  This will be the definitive geopolitical force in our life-times.  This is the century of the scramble for control of the remaining oil reserves.  It goes way beyond cheap gas and cheap plane flights, it goes straight to war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiensif we can not adapt to a more simplistic existence.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/040403_oil_war_bbc.html

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102302_campbell.html

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/013004_in_your_face.html


freedomburns

[Frodo]

this seems the most appropriate place to post this:

House passes energy bill that allows ANWR drilling

By H. Josef Hebert
The Associated Press

WASHINGTON — The House voted late yesterday to allow oil drilling in an Alaska wildlife refuge as part of a broad energy bill that Democrats said would funnel billions of dollars to highly profitable energy companies while doing little to promote conservation or ease gasoline prices.

The bill's sponsors said oil from Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, as much as a million barrels a day, will be needed to help curtail the country's growing dependence on oil imports. Opponents argued the oil wouldn't be available for a decade and even then at levels that would not significantly affect oil prices or imports.

The bill also calls for $8.1 billion in tax breaks over 10 years, most of it going to promote the coal, nuclear, oil and natural-gas industries.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002247991_energy21.html

[Platypus]

LPG uses less oil, ie=makes it last longer. It can easily be installed into any modern vehicle (in fact, practically any old vehicle, too).

[KEmperor]

Oh jeez, someone made a thread for all the crazies to air their conspiracy theories in one spot.

[Gabu]

And what do you think is the REAL reason for the war in Iraq?

And what do you think is the REAL reason for the war in Iraq?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The last time I saw data the amount of oil taken from Iraq was about $10 billion. The war has cost about $100 billion so far.
So fighting the war for oil is not a financially sound idea.

Other possible reasons:
1 When George H.W. Bush lost the election Saddam made the observation; well look at that, Bush is gone and I'm still here. That ticked off the Bush family. To add insult to injury Saddam tried to have Bush senior "whacked". That really angered the Bushs especially in light of Clinton's minimal response to it.
2. Certain well connected people or firms get lucrative defense contracts.
3. Expands the U.S. sphere of influence.

4. THE LIZARD PEOPLE LIKE DICK CHENEY AND CONDOLEEZZA RICE HAVE INFILTRATED THE WHITE HOUSE AND ARE MIND-CONTROLLING PRESIDENT BUSH

[ATFFL]

And what do you think is the REAL reason for the war in Iraq?

And what do you think is the REAL reason for the war in Iraq?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The last time I saw data the amount of oil taken from Iraq was about $10 billion. The war has cost about $100 billion so far.
So fighting the war for oil is not a financially sound idea.

Other possible reasons:
1 When George H.W. Bush lost the election Saddam made the observation; well look at that, Bush is gone and I'm still here. That ticked off the Bush family. To add insult to injury Saddam tried to have Bush senior "whacked". That really angered the Bushs especially in light of Clinton's minimal response to it.
2. Certain well connected people or firms get lucrative defense contracts.
3. Expands the U.S. sphere of influence.

4. THE LIZARD PEOPLE LIKE DICK CHENEY AND CONDOLEEZZA RICE HAVE INFILTRATED THE WHITE HOUSE AND ARE MIND-CONTROLLING PRESIDENT BUSH

I AM THE LIZARD KING!

[DanielX]

And what do you think is the REAL reason for the war in Iraq?

And what do you think is the REAL reason for the war in Iraq?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The last time I saw data the amount of oil taken from Iraq was about $10 billion. The war has cost about $100 billion so far.
So fighting the war for oil is not a financially sound idea.

Other possible reasons:
1 When George H.W. Bush lost the election Saddam made the observation; well look at that, Bush is gone and I'm still here. That ticked off the Bush family. To add insult to injury Saddam tried to have Bush senior "whacked". That really angered the Bushs especially in light of Clinton's minimal response to it.
2. Certain well connected people or firms get lucrative defense contracts.
3. Expands the U.S. sphere of influence.

4. THE LIZARD PEOPLE LIKE DICK CHENEY AND CONDOLEEZZA RICE HAVE INFILTRATED THE WHITE HOUSE AND ARE MIND-CONTROLLING PRESIDENT BUSH

you mean www.littlegreenfootballs.com folks, don't you?

[Platypus]

hey, don't forget that the Queer Eye boys are really...


CRAAAB PEOPLE!