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Author Topic: does Obama have a better chance of winning Colorado than Ohio?  (Read 887 times)
tweed
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« on: February 21, 2008, 01:03:11 am »
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does Obama have a better chance of winning Colorado than Ohio?
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2008, 01:04:33 am »
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I'd say so
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2008, 01:06:40 am »
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Obama should win both slightly.

Ohio:

Obama - 50.5%
McCain - 49.0%

Colorado:

Obama - 50.8%
McCain - 48.7%
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2008, 01:09:55 am »
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Definitely. Obama could really sweep Colorado substantially (up to 54-45), but any win in Ohio would be narrow.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2008, 01:18:13 am »
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I think so, BUT:

Obama isn't going to sweep Colorado by a 9 point margin, not with McCain as his opponent. He might win the state, but not more than 1-2% points. I think Colorado will be the pivital state this year like Ohio was in 2004 and Florida in 2000. Not sure before that what state(s) were the pivotal ones.
 
As far as Ohio goes, I think it depends how well Obama does in the primary there. If hillary wins by a comfortable margin, I'm calling for a VERY narrow McCain victory. Why? B/c now Obama is the clear frontrunner and if he doesn't win Ohio or get within 10 points, it shows he's not that popular with Ohians on the whole. McCain would do well with the older generation.

with the handful of "barely Bush" states in 2004, here's what I think the order will be from more Dem to more GOP: Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio. But in between NV and OH, I'm tempted to throw in Missouri and/or Virginia. I'm feeling confident about FL staying red
« Last Edit: February 21, 2008, 01:23:15 am by auburntiger »Logged

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« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2008, 01:25:14 am »
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no.

he could win or lose both, but he has a better chance to win Ohio.
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2008, 01:36:32 am »
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So many articles have been written that Colorado is moving Dem for a decade, and somehow it never pans out much for Federal elections. This is one of the most oversold psephological theories out there.
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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2008, 01:59:06 am »
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I'd say he has a better shot in CO. White Westerners love the guy.
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tweed
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« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2008, 02:03:44 am »
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tougher question -

does he have a better chance in Colorado than in Pennsylvania?
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2008, 06:25:33 am »
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quite possibly on the first, probably not on the second. Impossible to say.
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« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2008, 11:23:45 am »
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Colorado > Ohio for Obama.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2008, 11:42:00 am »
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As near-worthless as general election polls are at this point in the campaign, it's still interesting to note that Rasmussen recently had Obama beating McCain by 7 points in Colorado (link), and McCain beating Obama by 1 point in Ohio (link).


So many articles have been written that Colorado is moving Dem for a decade, and somehow it never pans out much for Federal elections. This is one of the most oversold psephological theories out there.

I do think that the magnitude of the Democratic trend in Colorado has been greatly overestimated.  However, we've already seen more than one poll showing Obama winning the state at this early stage, whereas not a single poll showed Kerry winning it in 2004.
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« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2008, 11:48:18 am »
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Talk to me in 8 months.  Personally, I suspect the answer is no.
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tweed
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2008, 11:50:45 am »
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for what it's worth (and it's not worth much, with Hillary still trading at 18.6% to win the nomination and low volume), COLORADO.DEM is trading at 51.5 and OHIO.DEM at 70.0.     PENNSYLVANIA.DEM is at 76.5
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2008, 12:10:37 pm »
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In the primary, yes.  In the general, no.

Colorado Dems are more "crunchy granola Dems" whereas Ohio Dems are "labor Dems".  Obama plays better to the crunchy granola side of the party than he does to the labor wing.

In the general election the Right-wing Pro-Military part of Colorado will turn out.  In the general election the Republicans will draw a stark contrast between McCain's military career and what they will paint as a lack of patriotism on Obama's part.
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Deliverance
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2008, 12:30:58 pm »
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Yeah, but the military base isn't as strong as the fundies. McCain won't get major fundy turnout..and the darker side of me is say that since these votes are so in one place, they will be easily suppressed...but I doubt the dems in CO have that sort of gumption and ethical challenge. 
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2008, 01:41:08 pm »
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I've seen the polls. Obama has a better chance at winning Colorado than Hillary Clinton certainly. But in the end, I don't know...Colorado always struck me as the kind of state McCain would do well in. Right now it seems like the polls reflect only views of Obama and I expect that to change as we approach election day. So I haven't made up my mind about this quite yet.
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