would Mel Carnahan have won had he lived?

[Brittain33]

I'm glad you brought up Miller.  If Coverdell hadn't died, and Barnes hadn't appointed Miller, the Senate would've remained Republican going into the 2002 election.

Yes, indeed.

[RBH]

Carnahan would have won.

Democrats carried four of five statewide posts that year. The race was basically a draw.

[Rococo4]

Wellstone and Coleman would have been really tight.......tough to say how it would have ended, though Wellstone probably had the slightest of edges.  Most senate republicans overperformed that election night.  Who is to say Coleman wouldnt have?

[Nym90]

Probably, although it's hard to say for sure, of course. But I think he would've eked through...any votes Jean gained through sympathy or Ashcroft's campaign suspension were probably balanced out by those who thought a vote for Mel wouldn't count or who didn't want an inexperienced Senator.