TX-SurveyUSA: Obama leads Clinton by 4%

[TheresNoMoney]

704 Likely Voters (including those who have already voted), +/- 3.8% MOE

Obama    49%
Clinton     45%

In a new poll conducted for CBS 11 News and 1080 KRLD, Barack Obama has moved ahead of Hillary Clinton among Texas Democrats.

The new figures show Obama with 49% and Clinton with 45%. SurveyUSA polled 704 Texans who have already voted or said they are likely to vote.   The margin of error is +/-3.8%, so the poll very nearly shows a statistical dead heat. 

http://cbs11tv.com/politics/obama.clinton.poll.2.662519.html

[Lief 🗽]

+4 for Obama, -5 for Clinton.

Obama definitely has the momentum. Let's hope this doesn't end up like California again...

[TheresNoMoney]

I hate to jump the gun, but I really think Obama wins Texas by at least 10%.

[Sarnstrom]

+4 for Obama, -5 for Clinton.

Obama definitely has the momentum. Let's hope this doesn't end up like California again...

SurveyUSA's final poll out of California had Clinton up 52-42%, the exact same margin of the actual results on election day.

[Speed of Sound]

The end my friends, the end! it is coming!

[Flying Dog]

Praise the Lord!

[exopolitician]

Her lead is down among hispanics by 13% AND women by 11%...wowies

[Sarnstrom]

Of the 25% who have alread voted Clinton leads 51-46%.

[Verily]

Of the 25% who have alread voted Clinton leads 51-46%.

Interesting and unexpected.

[Lief 🗽]

Of the 25% who have alread voted Clinton leads 51-46%.

Interesting and unexpected.

That doesn't make sense at all. The ridiculous 700% increases in turnout are happening in Obama counties, not Clinton counties.

[Verily]

Of the 25% who have alread voted Clinton leads 51-46%.

Interesting and unexpected.

That doesn't make sense at all. The ridiculous 700% increases in turnout are happening in Obama counties, not Clinton counties.

It's probably a small sample, though, so the MoE is pretty big. That's my explanation, anyway.

[TheresNoMoney]

Of the 25% who have alread voted Clinton leads 51-46%.

That's not what I read earlier. I read he was up big in early voting.

[Flying Dog]

Crap, now I'm going to be more on edge until election day than before.

[Verily]

Of the 25% who have alread voted Clinton leads 51-46%.

That's not what I read earlier. I read he was up big in early voting.

The Rasmussen poll didn't have him "up big" in early voting, though it did have him in the lead among early voters (while trailing overall by one point).

[Verily]

MoE on the early voters is 7.4%, so it could very well match up with the Rasmussen internals.

[Flying Dog]

So basically it's to close to call.

[Stranger in a strange land]

MoE on the early voters is 7.4%, so it could very well match up with the Rasmussen internals.

that's one heck of an MoE; basically equivalent to saying, "we have no idea what's actually going on out there." It's probably just as well, because all the polling for the democratic primary this cycle has been way off.

[JohnCA246]

These numbers look far more encouraging for Obama than California's did. 

[WalterMitty]

I hate to jump the gun, but I really think Obama wins Texas by at least 10%.

ive chosen not to look at any polls the last few days. 

because i know that obama supporters would be saying stupid stuff like that.

ill go on another break from polls.

let's see what happens tuesday.

meanwhile, you obama people can keep raising that bar of expectations.  hell at this point, i dont even know if mccain can carry utah against the great obama.

[they don't love you like i love you]

MoE on the early voters is 7.4%, so it could very well match up with the Rasmussen internals.

that's one heck of an MoE; basically equivalent to saying, "we have no idea what's actually going on out there." It's probably just as well, because all the polling for the democratic primary this cycle has been way off.

Nah, it's typical for SUSA. They give all the internals and subgroups, but the subsamples are too small to be meaningful because in this case it's 25% of roughly 700. So while the percentages for those subsamples are interesting in themselves, you shouldn't read too far into the figures for them (They often give wacky results like Republicans winning blacks in Montana because the sample consisted of 5 blacks or so.)

[Franzl]

meanwhile, you obama people can keep raising that bar of expectations.  hell at this point, i dont even know if mccain can carry utah against the great obama.

You're right to wonder, definitely. I seriously doubt McCain stands a chance against Obama in Utah

[Wiz in Wis]

The problem with the early voter numbers, in addition, also stems from the fact that a huge number of them are first time voters... They will be dropped in a likely voter screen and are also less likely to own landlines in the firstplace.

I bet Obama has a much larger lead in early voting than the polls will ever show