Democrats inch closer to control of the NY Senate

[Brittain33]

Yeah, they would actually be smart to simply protect NY-19 and NY-20, while conceeding NY-23 to the Republicans.  They could do this by extending NY-19 down south to pick up heavily Democratic precincts in the Bronx while giving some of the more Republican precincts in Orange county to Elliott Engel whose district is so Democratic that it wont matter.  With NY-20 they could exclude most of heavily Republican Washington, Warren and Saratoga Counties(but leave in the increasily Democratic city of Saratoga Springs).  and add in Democratic leaning counties on the Canadian border(Clinton, Franklin and most of St. Lawrence).  They would then place all of the removed Republican areas in NY-23 to conceed that district to John McHugh. 

I could see them carving up NY-23. There's no reason for it to be solidly Republican and it's a slow-growth region.

NY-25 (Maffei): Onondaga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, part of St. Lawrence
NY-24 (Arcuri) picks up Madison, Fulton, maybe Madison
NY-20 (Gillibrand) gets the rest of the North County, shedding southern bits to help round it out and enable growth in the other districts.

[Sam Spade]

Yeah, they would actually be smart to simply protect NY-19 and NY-20, while conceeding NY-23 to the Republicans.  They could do this by extending NY-19 down south to pick up heavily Democratic precincts in the Bronx while giving some of the more Republican precincts in Orange county to Elliott Engel whose district is so Democratic that it wont matter.  With NY-20 they could exclude most of heavily Republican Washington, Warren and Saratoga Counties(but leave in the increasily Democratic city of Saratoga Springs).  and add in Democratic leaning counties on the Canadian border(Clinton, Franklin and most of St. Lawrence).  They would then place all of the removed Republican areas in NY-23 to conceed that district to John McHugh. 

I could see them carving up NY-23. There's no reason for it to be solidly Republican and it's a slow-growth region.

NY-25 (Maffei): Onondaga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, part of St. Lawrence
NY-24 (Arcuri) picks up Madison, Fulton, maybe Madison
NY-20 (Gillibrand) gets the rest of the North County, shedding southern bits to help round it out and enable growth in the other districts.

Ah, the PA solution in force.  NTTAWWT, unless a wave hits.

[Smash255]

If it's Republican-heavy won't they lose it again next time it's up for a vote that isn't a special election?

NY doesn't vote out its incumbents, ever.   

You'll simply have to wait for Spitzer to screw up even more than he already is doing - for a number of years.  I'll probably have moved to Connecticut by then.

 Ahh yes, good ol' Connecticut A grand state where a Republican Governor can get elected with over 60% of the vote, yet STILL lose more seats in the General Assembly. Jeez, it's like friggin Taxachussettes without the Kennedys!

I think you may be making an inference from my comments that was not intended, though I can see where you would make it.

P.S.  Isn't it interesting that merely a comment about NY-03 can get a page-long-statement with the usual theories/presumptions from the usual sources.

Do you have anything to dispute in the points I made about how they could re-district NY-3 to make it more Democratic friendly without it having much impact on Israel or McCarthy's seats??

[Brittain33]

Ah, the PA solution in force.  NTTAWWT, unless a wave hits.

Well, all four districts taken together have a uniform cast of about R+1, with the areas taken out of Maffei's district in my plan among the more Republican areas. NY-23 is all more of the same and no more Republican than territory to the south and west that Arcuri, Gillibrand, and Maffei would need to gobble up just to maintain population. It seems just as safe to draw three swing districts with three Democratic incumbents then to draw four swing districts with three Democrats and one Republican.

Gerrymandering up there is a waste of time. Making NY-23 any larger in area on the far side of the Adirondacks is cruel to the representative, and stretching it out to include the suburbs of Syracuse or Rochester doesn't make sense for those voters.

Gillibrand is out in a serious wave election no matter what we do, unless she can stay in with personality alone.

[Democratic Hawk]

[Smash255]

To take it a step further

The 2000 population of NY was just under 19 million, with an 06 estimate of 19,306.183.  If the state keeps a similar pace through 2010 the population would be somewhere in the 19.55 or so range.  As of 2000 the average CD size was between 654,360 to 654,361.  Based off an estimate  NY population between 19.55 mi & 19.575mi you wind up between 724,000 or 725,000 per district assuming that 2 districts are lost.  So lets assume a net gain of 70,000 voters per district

The 1st district had an approx 06 population of 682,500 which would put it at about 705,000 in 2010 needing about 20,000 more people

The 2nd district had an approx population in 06 of 675,000, similar rate of growth through 2010 would put it at approx 690,000.  Needing an extra 35,000 people

the 3rd had an approx population of 660,5000 in 06, similar rate of growth puts it at a little over 665,000 by 2010 needing 60,000 more people.

The 4th had an appx pop of 641,500 in 06 s similar drop would put its population at approx 630,000 in 2010 needing approx 95,000 people

To the 1st you would push it further west taken 20,000 people away from the 2nd to get to the 725,000 amount, reducing the 2nd to 670,000.  Moving the nassau portion of the district into King's district would then reduce the population in the 2nd to 608,000.  Needing 117,000 to get to the 725,000.  The suffolk portion of King's district is currently 140,000.  throw all of it with the exception of Amityville back into Israel's district.  Which would be approx 131,000, putting it at 739,000 or so, throw most of North Amityville (heavily african American and democratic) into King's district

With this the 3rd would lose 117,000 in Suffolk, gain 62,000 in Nassau and now need approx 115,000 people to reach 725,000.  Pull freeport & baldwin out of mcCarthy's district and into King's as well as move east meadow and parts if not all of roosevelt into King's district.  east meadow is a marginal area, roosevelt very heavily democratic, Freeport is heavily Dem as well and Baldwin while not as strong as Freeport & Roosevelt is a dem area.

This would bring McCarthy's district all the way down to about 515,000 needing about 210,000.  Thats about the size of Ackerman's portion in Nassau.  You can move McCarthy's district further north to take the Ackerman's Nassau portion, push McCarthy's district west into Queens (meek's district) or a combination of the two.  Any option would make up for the Democratic area's which would be lost to king.


if you don't push the areas of Mccarthy's district i mentioned into King's another option would be pushing King's district further west further north and splitting what is currently Ackerman's Nassau portion between King & McCarthy.  As of now LI has 4 full districts and about 30% of another (Ackerman's) after redistricting its most likely going to be just 4 full districts and have no portion of a 5th.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

When I was younger, we'd visit part of this district sometimes. It's definitely a Republican area. There's a large military base in it, Fort Drum. However, the NY Republican party is going down hill.

As for the congressional districts, I'm not sure what the optimal Democratic strategy would be when re-drawing them. The current districts are a pro-incumbent gerrymander that was supposed to have 11 Republicans. Today there are only 6, and 3 of those barely won last time. That didn't work out so well for them.

[Cubby]

Do you have anything to dispute in the points I made about how they could re-district NY-3 to make it more Democratic friendly without it having much impact on Israel or McCarthy's seats??

I think you may be making an inference from my comments that was not intended, though I can see where you would make it.

P.S.  Isn't it interesting that merely a comment about NY-03 can get a page-long-statement with the usual theories/presumptions from the usual sources.

We're still waiting Sam........

Though judging by your remark you probably won't respond.

Yeah, they would actually be smart to simply protect NY-19 and NY-20, while conceeding NY-23 to the Republicans.  They could do this by extending NY-19 down south to pick up heavily Democratic precincts in the Bronx while giving some of the more Republican precincts in Orange county to Elliott Engel whose district is so Democratic that it wont matter. 

The 19th District can't go into the city. Its the fastest growing part of the state besides NYC and eastern Suffolk County. There's no reason for it to expand southward except for partisan gerrymandering (as opposed to incumbent gerrymandering). The Bronx and Orange/Putnam are two totally different worlds.

Watertown area, Fort Drum...

Or as the New York Times exclusively (and hilariously) puts it, "over six hours from New York City."

Its not just the Times that does that. Its common for New York City residents to refer to both Westchester and Buffalo with the same, vague, "upstate" moniker.

[HardRCafé]

Gillibrand is out in a serious wave election no matter what we do, unless she can stay in with personality alone.

Good juxtaposition there.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, they would actually be smart to simply protect NY-19 and NY-20, while conceeding NY-23 to the Republicans.  They could do this by extending NY-19 down south to pick up heavily Democratic precincts in the Bronx while giving some of the more Republican precincts in Orange county to Elliott Engel whose district is so Democratic that it wont matter.  With NY-20 they could exclude most of heavily Republican Washington, Warren and Saratoga Counties(but leave in the increasily Democratic city of Saratoga Springs).  and add in Democratic leaning counties on the Canadian border(Clinton, Franklin and most of St. Lawrence).  They would then place all of the removed Republican areas in NY-23 to conceed that district to John McHugh. 

I could see them carving up NY-23. There's no reason for it to be solidly Republican and it's a slow-growth region.

NY-25 (Maffei): Onondaga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, part of St. Lawrence
NY-24 (Arcuri) picks up Madison, Fulton, maybe Madison
NY-20 (Gillibrand) gets the rest of the North County, shedding southern bits to help round it out and enable growth in the other districts.

Ah, the PA solution in force.  NTTAWWT, unless a wave hits.

"NTTAWWT"?

[Brittain33]

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[Brittain33]

Or as the New York Times exclusively (and hilariously) puts it, "over six hours from New York City."

I can't wait until they use that line on the ME-1 primary.

[Kevinstat]

If the Democrats control the State Senate by a very narrow margin in 2011, the redistricting of that chamber should be huge.  If they win control in 2008 and a few more seats flip in 2010 (as Republicans lose one of there best advantages besides the district lines which is that I've heard minority party state senators have practically no power in New York - that might be the case in the Assembly too, but the Democrats would likely hold that without that advantage and what I've heard are favorable district lines plan), ... if that happens I could see the Democrats being slightly less aggressive because they might not feel they need to be so aggressive and individual Democratic Senators from previously marginal or Republican-leaning districts may now feel fairly safe and don't want to have to deal with a lot of new territory and potential primary challengers (or perhaps challenges to incumbent Legislators in New York are almost always fruitless - one or more usually succeeds in Maine every biennial election, then again we do have 186 Legislators).  If a close minority or a majority of the upstate state Senators are Democrats by this time, as I know is already the case in Long Island, taking advantage of the 5% allowable population deviation (really 10% of each other as a percentage of the ideal but +/- 5% is a good rule of thumb) to give NYC a couple extra districts at the expense of Upstate and Long Island (I read the Democrats did that in the Assembly in the post-2000 redistricting) might meet with some resistance, although it could probably be done without placing incumbent Democrats in the same districts - there will still be some Republicans to inconvenience, including possibly drawing a pair or two in the same district.

How does legislative redistricting work in New York.  Does each chamber of the Legislature draw it's own lines without required consent of the other chamber or the Governor?  Or is there simply a tradition of reciprocal consent for the other chamber's disired lines?  (That was the case in Kentucky until the GOP captured the state Senate and wanted to reward a party switcher who had been elected in 1998 - they have four year terms there - by placing him in a safer district and one where he wouldn't face the voters until 2004 - that's what I recall anyway.)

[Mr.Phips]

Ah, the PA solution in force.  NTTAWWT, unless a wave hits.

Well, all four districts taken together have a uniform cast of about R+1, with the areas taken out of Maffei's district in my plan among the more Republican areas. NY-23 is all more of the same and no more Republican than territory to the south and west that Arcuri, Gillibrand, and Maffei would need to gobble up just to maintain population. It seems just as safe to draw three swing districts with three Democratic incumbents then to draw four swing districts with three Democrats and one Republican.

Gerrymandering up there is a waste of time. Making NY-23 any larger in area on the far side of the Adirondacks is cruel to the representative, and stretching it out to include the suburbs of Syracuse or Rochester doesn't make sense for those voters.

Gillibrand is out in a serious wave election no matter what we do, unless she can stay in with personality alone.

Gillibrand could probably be made very safe by giving her a chunk of Albany. 

[Kevinstat]

Or as the New York Times exclusively (and hilariously) puts it, "over six hours from New York City."

I can't wait until they use that line on the ME-1 primary.

I just read your post, brittain33.  I live in ME-01 and signed petititions for several of the Democratic candidates in that race (all who had them at the table at my town's caucus - I got to change my avatar back to red as I reenrolled in the party at the caucus).  What a coincidence that I stumbled on your thread soon after or even before (I take a while with my posts sometimes) you brought my district up.  I must confess I didn't get you're point, but I would be happy for you to explain it to me.

[Brittain33]

I just read your post, brittain33.  I live in ME-01 and signed petititions for several of the Democratic candidates in that race (all who had them at the table at my town's caucus - I got to change my avatar back to red as I reenrolled in the party at the caucus).  What a coincidence that I stumbled on your thread soon after or even before (I take a while with my posts sometimes) you brought my district up.  I must confess I didn't get you're point, but I would be happy for you to explain it to me.

Portland is a six-hour drive from New York City so it would be a New York-centric way of describing the district.

[Verily]

I just read your post, brittain33.  I live in ME-01 and signed petititions for several of the Democratic candidates in that race (all who had them at the table at my town's caucus - I got to change my avatar back to red as I reenrolled in the party at the caucus).  What a coincidence that I stumbled on your thread soon after or even before (I take a while with my posts sometimes) you brought my district up.  I must confess I didn't get you're point, but I would be happy for you to explain it to me.

Portland is a six-hour drive from New York City so it would be a New York-centric way of describing the district.

Although Portland is substantially more descript than Watertown.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, good luck with that.

[Brittain33]

Yeah, good luck with that.

I think the Democrats gave up on counting on Spitzer's personal popularity over a year ago.

That said, we'll have to see how Paterson does. The Republican Senate establishment has the same structural problems they had yesterday, and their senators aren't getting any younger.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, good luck with that.

I think the Democrats gave up on counting on Spitzer's personal popularity over a year ago.

But this isn't about personal popularity anymore. We're talking a national news story. We're talking a huge embarrassment and likely resignation. Patterson will most certainly get a honeymoon but who knows how long that will last and if it will even help the Dems gain full control.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

See the popularity of Rell vs. Rowland in Connecticut. Patterson will no doubt end up being more popular than Spitzer.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeah, good luck with that.

I think the Democrats gave up on counting on Spitzer's personal popularity over a year ago.

But this isn't about personal popularity anymore. We're talking a national news story. We're talking a huge embarrassment and likely resignation. Patterson will most certainly get a honeymoon but who knows how long that will last and if it will even help the Dems gain full control.

But will this have any more impact than the recent gubernatorial events in NJ and CT? I doubt it.

[Keystone Phil]

See the popularity of Rell vs. Rowland in Connecticut. Patterson will no doubt end up being more popular than Spitzer.

That's what I was thinking but it isn't always the case. See Perry vs. Bush in Texas.

Yeah, good luck with that.

I think the Democrats gave up on counting on Spitzer's personal popularity over a year ago.

But this isn't about personal popularity anymore. We're talking a national news story. We're talking a huge embarrassment and likely resignation. Patterson will most certainly get a honeymoon but who knows how long that will last and if it will even help the Dems gain full control.

But will this have any more impact than the recent gubernatorial events in NJ and CT? I doubt it.

CT wasn't a national story concerning a rising star and NJ is just a mess with everything. It's a hack's dream.

Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see.

[Sam Spade]

As I said in another thread, it's tough to tell.  NY voters can be an odd lot when it comes to things like this - predicting a response based on other states is not wise - though it may be what actually occurs.

[Brittain33]

But this isn't about personal popularity anymore. We're talking a national news story. We're talking a huge embarrassment and likely resignation.

We're talking about wishful thinking among a party that has had as much bad news in 2 years as we Democrats had in 10.

The hordes of low-information N.Y. voters going to the polls in Queens to vote for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton aren't going to split their tickets to maintain an octogenarian Republican state senator because of what Spitzer had done eight months earlier.

Democrats have to pick up ONE seat to get control. One. In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 5:3.