Democrats inch closer to control of the NY Senate

[Smash255]

Yeah, good luck with that.

I think the Democrats gave up on counting on Spitzer's personal popularity over a year ago.

But this isn't about personal popularity anymore. We're talking a national news story. We're talking a huge embarrassment and likely resignation. Patterson will most certainly get a honeymoon but who knows how long that will last and if it will even help the Dems gain full control.

As it is the GOP is shaping up to have two highly contested races on Long Island.  In the 3rd Senatorial district Caesar Trunzo will be 82 and is likely to face either chris Bodkin or Jim Dahoug, two strong candidates.  Trunzo's age is a bit of a factor as well as his ties to the Islip Republican Party which he serves as the GOP Chair.  In recent years the Islip GOP which was once as strong as itown supervisor thrown in jail, massive party infighting and the Dems taking complete control of the town government.

In the 6th district Kemp Hannon has a few possible challengers who could make things quite difficult for him.  My county legislator Dave Mejias D-North Massapequa as well as another legislator Kevin Abrhams D-Hempstead or weighing challenges to Hannon.  The district has a 3.46% GOP enrollment advantage (and shrinking) and will likely go strongly for Obama in November.

[J.G.H.]

Democrats have to pick up ONE seat to get control. One. In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 5:3.

Actually, it kinda looks like now they have to pick up two. Paterson won't be Lieutenant Governor to break the tie in case of a 31-31 vote. According to wikipedia, Majority Leader Bruno becomes acting Lt. Gov. But since he's already a member, I doubt he can get another vote in the chamber, so one additional vote would simply result in a tie of 31-31. I assume under that case party reorginization would not change and stay with the status quo, the Republicans, until a new Lt. Gov. is elected in 2010 or the numbers change.

[Nutmeg]

See the popularity of Rell vs. Rowland in Connecticut. Patterson will no doubt end up being more popular than Spitzer.

That's what I was thinking but it isn't always the case. See Perry vs. Bush in Texas.

Except Bush wasn't forced from office in disgrace.

[Keystone Phil]

See the popularity of Rell vs. Rowland in Connecticut. Patterson will no doubt end up being more popular than Spitzer.

That's what I was thinking but it isn't always the case. See Perry vs. Bush in Texas.

Except Bush wasn't forced from office in disgrace.

Eh, good point. I still don't think Patterson is guaranteed insane popularity.

[Verily]

See the popularity of Rell vs. Rowland in Connecticut. Patterson will no doubt end up being more popular than Spitzer.

That's what I was thinking but it isn't always the case. See Perry vs. Bush in Texas.

Except Bush wasn't forced from office in disgrace.

Eh, good point. I still don't think Patterson is guaranteed insane popularity.

Probably not, but I think people are unlikely to judge him very harshly as a replacement for Spitzer. Then again, Rell and Codey were both very capable, but my opinion of Paterson is not all that high.