We tend to forget Ander Jackson saved the Union from an early Civil War. He stared down Vice President Calhoun, the "nulification" man, and told him, "Our Union, it must be preserved." He threatened hangings to any Congressman who preached sessesion on the floors of Congress.
Jackson saved the Union.
The South had more chance of winning it in the 1860's due to them having more industry than in the 1830's.
Yes, but the gap also got bigger.
More to the point, the North's big advantage in population developed after that time, and o/c, there were no railroads in 1830, which means it would have been far more difficult to move men to the battlefields. There were also improvements in weapon technology, though these were dwarved by those in the war itself.
A civil war in 1830 would have been more like 1812 than 1865.
Of course there wasn't as much support for secession in 1830 as there was in 1860 - simply because the "Domestic Institutions" were not under threat from Democracy. Yet. Otherwise, Jackson wouldn't have dared use the language he did. In fact, otherwise he'd more likely than not have supported secession. He was a large slaveholder from a state that did secede, after all.
