The Examiner: Election Tracker

[Јas]

The Examiner

14 April 2008

Trondheim Snatches Late Victory

As so often happens in Atlasia, a stunning late surge has swung an election. With the balloting deadline bearing down, Lewis Trondheim received a string of 4 votes (from friz; phknrocket1k ; Boss Tweed; and Boris) granting him a final round 22-21 win against Colin Wixted who had led from the first vote cast. The late surge is being largely ascribed to a JCP GOTV effort.

Colin Wixted has congratulated Lewis on his election.

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Editorial: Mid-term Analysis

Special Election Certified Results:

Candidate	1st Count -	2nd Count -	3rd Count
Lewis Trondheim (JCP)	15	19	22
Colin Wixted (NLC)	14	16	21
South Park Conservative (NLC)	9	9
Xahar (PLP)	6

With the official mid-term elections only days away, (and indeed the absentee booth already open) the results of this ballot will still give heart to the NLC, despite Colin’s loss. The party’s candidates netted more than half of the first preference votes cast and should they be able to manage their vote to comfortably take 2 seats and have genuine prospects on a 3rd – so a return of Mr. Wixted to the Senate remains quite likely in the short term.

For the PLP, the results are less positive. Taking 13.4% of the first preference vote in a 5-seater election would see them placed to contest for only 1 seat. Given recent events, the party’s cohesion must be seen as being under serious doubt. Whether they are united on a candidate or at least show strong unity in transfers will determine their success.

Lewis Trondheim, as the winner of the Special Election, must be seen as well placed to take a seat on the JCP ticket. Only the ardent backing of the JCP leadership can realistically see CultureKing figuring in the contest to retain his Senate seat.

The Examiner forecasts that afleitch; Lewis Trondheim; and Colin Wixted will all win seats in next weekend’s election. One of the final two seats is likely to be taken by the PLP, with Sensei favourite – though whether he can retain the strong preferences of the PLP grassroots remains to be seen. A seat is probably also available to a candidate with appeal to the Atlasian right or libertarians (both Jake and South Park Conservative may well fit this description and find themselves in the running here). However, on a good day for the NLC, and should the PLP or Atlasian right be found wanting or split, just about any of their remaining candidates could find themselves well placed for victory.

All in all, it promises to be a very interesting election.

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National Policy Standardization Amendment

Though the vote of Sen. meekermariner has given the Ayes a 5-4 lead over the nays in the Mideast, the prospects for the ratification of the Amendment are no brighter than they were yesterday. With time quickly running out, it would take a remarkable effort for the Aye camp to turn the fortunes of this Amendment around.

Unofficial Examiner Regional Tallies:

Region	Aye -	Nay -	Abstain -	Present
Northeast	4	7
Mideast	5	4	0	1
Midwest	3	4	1
Pacific	2	4
Southeast	0	0

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"Not Much" of a Case?
   
Attorney for the plaintiff, in the matter of Xahar v bgwah, Speed of Sound has presented his case to Ebowed, who was appointed by Governor bgwah to hear the case. Xahar has sought to injunct the Governor to appoint a Lt. Governor as soon as possible.

Speed of Sound has admitted that the plaintiff’s argument is potentially lacking, admitting he had “not much” to base the case on, other than pinning his hopes to the Pacific 5th Amendment, which states:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The use of ‘may’ rather than ‘shall’ is likely to prove a significant problem for the plaintiff, to which the Governor has already drawn attention when the matter first arose.

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Trans Fat Regulation Bill

Sen. Culture King (JCP-D5) moved to assume sponsorship of the Trans Fat Regulation Bill following the decision by the PPT, meekermariner (NLC-ME), to end his sponsorship after sustained criticism of the bill.

The PPT though clearly encouraged objections to the move. Such an objection proved forthcoming from Sen. hughento (NLC-MW) who objected on grounds of the Senate’s apparent legislative backlog and the bill’s limited chances of success. The objections where seemingly accepted by Sen. CultureKing. It is not anticipated that the bill will receive continued debate.

[Ebowed]

I'm amazed that the Jesus Christ Party somehow has 4 Senate seats.

(Alright, counting Sam is sort of cheating, but...)

[minionofmidas]

I'm amazed that the Jesus Christ Party somehow has 4 Senate seats.

(Alright, counting Sam is sort of cheating, but...)

He did vote for me over Colin.

[Sam Spade]

I'm amazed that the Jesus Christ Party somehow has 4 Senate seats.

(Alright, counting Sam is sort of cheating, but...)

He did vote for me over Colin.

My vote did put you over the top.  And imagine, it wouldn't have happened if the NLC had put a District 4 resident in the seat to begin with.  Wonder if there are any lessons here...

[minionofmidas]

I'm amazed that the Jesus Christ Party somehow has 4 Senate seats.

(Alright, counting Sam is sort of cheating, but...)

He did vote for me over Colin.

My vote did put you over the top.  And imagine, it wouldn't have happened if the NLC had put a District 4 resident in the seat to begin with.  Wonder if there are any lessons here...

I still wonder if Jake resigned precisely to allow Brandon to challenge the lack of (district-wide, of course) by-elections.
And to think that the appointment idea was created to get Brandon to vote for Proportional Representation...
And to think that Jake's was the last in a whole series of resignations, started by Senator Mr Moderate's confirmation as SoFA and policy decision not to hold by-elections...
The ironies are endless...

[Platypus]

I'm amazed that the Jesus Christ Party somehow has 4 Senate seats.

(Alright, counting Sam is sort of cheating, but...)

He did vote for me over Colin.

My vote did put you over the top.  And imagine, it wouldn't have happened if the NLC had put a District 4 resident in the seat to begin with.  Wonder if there are any lessons here...

I also preferenced Lewis, because of the moral necessity to have a D4 resident in the seat. I felt conflicted due to my feeling that Colin would be a great senator and because he's of my party, but he will be elected in the upcoming elections most likely and he wasn't from the region.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Well, technically, it was the Atlasian Senate that made the policy decision to eliminate by-elections, not I.  I was simply following the letter of the law as I interpreted it.

Let's blame this whole thing on Jas for not completely amending the constitution to make Sections 18 and 19 of the PRA legal. 

[Јas]

The Examiner

15 April 2008

Senate Overrides Presidential Veto

The 7th vote in favour of overturning the President’s veto of the Sane Automobile Policy Bill has been cast by the newly sworn-in Senator Lewis Trondheim. The bill sets down newly prescibed and future targets for CAFE standards for the automobile industry to meet.

Successful veto overrides have been a rare occurance in Atlasia. It is believed that this may be the first successful override of a Presidential veto in almost 2 years.

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National Policy Standardization Amendment Fails

With the issuing of certifications in the Pacific and Northeast regions, both returning majorities against the Amendment, the NPSA has lost its ratification bid, no matter what the results from the remaining plebiscites.

Unofficial Examiner Regional Tallies:

Region	Aye -	Nay -	Abstain -	Present
Northeast*	4	8
Mideast	5	4	0	1
Midwest	3	4	1
Pacific*	2	4
Southeast	0	0

*Certified Result

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Amendment to Elect the SoFA set for Tabling

Sen. Lewis Trondheim has motioned to table the, drafted by PPT meekermariner. From comments made, the motion can probably expect the express support of Sens. Hashemite, afleitch, Sam Spade and CultureKing.

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Trondheim’s Legislation

Sen. Trondheim has introduced two pieces of legislation on his first day back in the chamber. The Proportional Representation (By-Elections) Bill seeks to amend the PR Act by removing the section on vacancy filling in its entirety and cementing the use of by-elections as the preferred means.

The December Elections Amendment would alter the 11th Amendment by moving December elections from the second to last Thursday to the second Thursday of the month.

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Lt. Gov. needed “to continue the efficient functioning of the Pacific Region”

The Pacifican case surrounding the vacancy of the Lt. Governor’s office continues. Governor bgwah has defended the decision not to make an appointment on the grounds that the relevant Constitutional provision doesn’t mandate him to do so, but only provides an option to do so.

Speed of Sound, plaintiff’s counsel, contested this position arguing that the text does in fact mandate appointment “so as to continue the efficient functioning of the Pacific Region”.  He also said that the Governor should “open the doors of the lieutenant governorship to anyone wishes to hold it, so as to fill the seat, rather than giving the governor the opportunity to reject”.

The case continues.

[Јas]

Let's blame this whole thing on Jas for not completely amending the constitution to make Sections 18 and 19 of the PRA legal. 

Following all of the (wasted) efforts that went in to putting in place those sections, there's a part of me that's really quite satisfied to see them struck off - especially in the manner in which it happened.

So I'll happily take whatever blame is going around

[minionofmidas]

Let's blame this whole thing on Jas for not completely amending the constitution to make Sections 18 and 19 of the PRA legal. 

Following all of the (wasted) efforts that went in to putting in place those sections, there's a part of me that's really quite satisfied to see them struck off - especially in the manner in which it happened.

So I'll happily take whatever blame is going around

Oh come on. At least admit that you created that constitutional issue on purpose.

[Хahar 🤔]

Just noticed something:

For the PLP, the results are less positive. Taking 13.4% of the first preference vote in a 5-seater election would see them placed to contest for only 1 seat. Given recent events, the party’s cohesion must be seen as being under serious doubt. Whether they are united on a candidate or at least show strong unity in transfers will determine their success.

The first candidate on the PLP list is in fact EarlAW; Sensei is #2.

[Јas]

Let's blame this whole thing on Jas for not completely amending the constitution to make Sections 18 and 19 of the PRA legal. 

Following all of the (wasted) efforts that went in to putting in place those sections, there's a part of me that's really quite satisfied to see them struck off - especially in the manner in which it happened.

So I'll happily take whatever blame is going around

Oh come on. At least admit that you created that constitutional issue on purpose.

I wish I could. Had I thought of it at the time, it would have been very useful.

[Јas]

Just noticed something:

For the PLP, the results are less positive. Taking 13.4% of the first preference vote in a 5-seater election would see them placed to contest for only 1 seat. Given recent events, the party’s cohesion must be seen as being under serious doubt. Whether they are united on a candidate or at least show strong unity in transfers will determine their success.

The first candidate on the PLP list is in fact EarlAW; Sensei is #2.

So he is.
In which case he would obviously be favoured, but the same provisos apply. Whatever the result, the PLP vote will be interesting.

[Хahar 🤔]

Just noticed something:

For the PLP, the results are less positive. Taking 13.4% of the first preference vote in a 5-seater election would see them placed to contest for only 1 seat. Given recent events, the party’s cohesion must be seen as being under serious doubt. Whether they are united on a candidate or at least show strong unity in transfers will determine their success.

The first candidate on the PLP list is in fact EarlAW; Sensei is #2.

So he is.
In which case he would obviously be favoured, but the same provisos apply. Whatever the result, the PLP vote will be interesting.

I think we'll have the best, most unified voting patterns of any party. The JCP doesn't even have a list, and the NLC is full of dissidents. Overoptimistic? We'll wait and see.

[minionofmidas]

Just noticed something:

For the PLP, the results are less positive. Taking 13.4% of the first preference vote in a 5-seater election would see them placed to contest for only 1 seat. Given recent events, the party’s cohesion must be seen as being under serious doubt. Whether they are united on a candidate or at least show strong unity in transfers will determine their success.

The first candidate on the PLP list is in fact EarlAW; Sensei is #2.

So he is.
In which case he would obviously be favoured, but the same provisos apply. Whatever the result, the PLP vote will be interesting.

I think we'll have the best, most unified voting patterns of any party. The JCP doesn't even have a list, and the NLC is full of dissidents. Overoptimistic? We'll wait and see.

The JCP doesn't NEED a list. -_-

[Јas]

Just noticed something:

For the PLP, the results are less positive. Taking 13.4% of the first preference vote in a 5-seater election would see them placed to contest for only 1 seat. Given recent events, the party’s cohesion must be seen as being under serious doubt. Whether they are united on a candidate or at least show strong unity in transfers will determine their success.

The first candidate on the PLP list is in fact EarlAW; Sensei is #2.

So he is.
In which case he would obviously be favoured, but the same provisos apply. Whatever the result, the PLP vote will be interesting.

I think we'll have the best, most unified voting patterns of any party. The JCP doesn't even have a list, and the NLC is full of dissidents. Overoptimistic? We'll wait and see.

I expect the core PLP vote to be fairly united, but it's the voting of the ex-PLP and the hesitant-PLP members as well as how independents rate them that should give a good indication of the party's future.

I think the NLC will probably toe the line fairly well, but it is by far the largest party so some divergence is to be expected; and with only 2 candidates the JCP don't need a list - just reasonable transfer effectiveness. Lewis's core support is at least as much outside the party as there may be within it, from all I've seen CultureKing's support is only within the party (and at that only the behest of the bgwah). One of them should certainly win, and if the strategy is right it's not inconceivable for both to win.

[Хahar 🤔]

Just noticed something:

For the PLP, the results are less positive. Taking 13.4% of the first preference vote in a 5-seater election would see them placed to contest for only 1 seat. Given recent events, the party’s cohesion must be seen as being under serious doubt. Whether they are united on a candidate or at least show strong unity in transfers will determine their success.

The first candidate on the PLP list is in fact EarlAW; Sensei is #2.

So he is.
In which case he would obviously be favoured, but the same provisos apply. Whatever the result, the PLP vote will be interesting.

I think we'll have the best, most unified voting patterns of any party. The JCP doesn't even have a list, and the NLC is full of dissidents. Overoptimistic? We'll wait and see.

I expect the core PLP vote to be fairly united, but it's the voting of the ex-PLP and the hesitant-PLP members as well as how independents rate them that should give a good indication of the party's future.

I think the NLC will probably toe the line fairly well, but it is by far the largest party so some divergence is to be expected; and with only 2 candidates the JCP don't need a list - just reasonable transfer effectiveness. Lewis's core support is at least as much outside the party as there may be within it, from all I've seen CultureKing's support is only within the party (and at that only the behest of the bgwah). One of them should certainly win, and if the strategy is right it's not inconceivable for both to win.

Realistically, this is the best ticket the PLP could have put forward. The list is headed by two fairly popular ex-Senators, and there are no "bad apples" (so to speak). But what the PLP will influence most is those last few seats; it could really kill Jake, who isn't the most popular figure in the liberal camp.

CultureKing is very unlikely to win anything; he's just not a very attractive candidate, what with the accusations of oppotunism and all. He got a very low spot on the PLP list, and I doubt NLCers will rate him much higher.

[Јas]

Realistically, this is the best ticket the PLP could have put forward. The list is headed by two fairly popular ex-Senators, and there are no "bad apples" (so to speak). But what the PLP will influence most is those last few seats; it could really kill Jake, who isn't the most popular figure in the liberal camp.

If the country could elect Phil as President, then we must accept that there is a right wing constituency here, no matter how silent it chooses to be. There are quite a few right-wing votes out there and not a lot on the ballot that appeals to them greatly. Seems to me that both Jake and SPC are well placed to gain from these votes, even if Jake hasn't been around.

CultureKing is very unlikely to win anything; he's just not a very attractive candidate, what with the accusations of oppotunism and all. He got a very low spot on the PLP list, and I doubt NLCers will rate him much higher.

As I said, he's burned many bridges with the opportunism of taking bgwah's invitation for a Senate seat. I don't think anyone doubts that the JCP leader can rally some votes, in this case it's a tough ask, but if bgwah tries hard enough, he might just be able to get CultureKing back into the Senate. We just don't know just how inclined bgwah is to help out.

[AndrewTX]

Eh, I'm just gonna vote for the best candidate, not the party.

[Хahar 🤔]

Realistically, this is the best ticket the PLP could have put forward. The list is headed by two fairly popular ex-Senators, and there are no "bad apples" (so to speak). But what the PLP will influence most is those last few seats; it could really kill Jake, who isn't the most popular figure in the liberal camp.

If the country could elect Phil as President, then we must accept that there is a right wing constituency here, no matter how silent it chooses to be. There are quite a few right-wing votes out there and not a lot on the ballot that appeals to them greatly. Seems to me that both Jake and SPC are well placed to gain from these votes, even if Jake hasn't been around.

Nothing to argue with here, though I'm surprised that people like Bacon King and Rocky are completely out of the running.

CultureKing is very unlikely to win anything; he's just not a very attractive candidate, what with the accusations of oppotunism and all. He got a very low spot on the PLP list, and I doubt NLCers will rate him much higher.

As I said, he's burned many bridges with the opportunism of taking bgwah's invitation for a Senate seat. I don't think anyone doubts that the JCP leader can rally some votes, in this case it's a tough ask, but if bgwah tries hard enough, he might just be able to get CultureKing back into the Senate. We just don't know just how inclined bgwah is to help out.

I don't think he'll find it worth his while to do so, and with such a large constituency as opposed to the friendly confines of the Pacific, with many giving CultureKing very low preferences, it'd be a real uphill battle. The JCP will lose a seat at this election; I don't think it's possible to argue with that.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I too assume that Wixted, Trondheim, and Afleitch will all gain enough votes to win election based on the sheer number of first preferences they'll received, with the remaining seats going to any combination of EarlAW, Rocky, Sensei, Bacon King, or possibly Jake, depending on how conservatives choose to first-preference their ballots and how loyal NLC members are to the recommended fourth and fifth preferences.

(Rocky will do well based on being 4th and/or 5th preferenced by members of both the NLC and PLP plus a scattering of higher-level support elsewhere based on personal friendships; Sensei and Earl are good candidates based on their high PLP preferencing and lower preferencing from other non-PLP liberals; Bacon King and Jake look good based on a lower preferencing from NLCers but higher preferencing from conservatives.  I generally assume that Culture King will lose re-election out of lack of favorable preferencing by anyone to the right of the JCP (also factoring in burned bridges with the PLP), and Hashemite too may lose out based on a lower preferencing by NLC members and lower support among other subgroups against fellow competitors for the fourth or fifth slots.  Happy Warrior will struggle for the same reason Hashemite will, or so I predict.)

South Park Conservative had a strong showing in the special election, though that was primarily due to his actually being from District 4 (same goes for Lewis—had Colin been a resident of D4 there is no question that he would have won the race, probably handily).  He's likely to get preferenced solely by conservatives, and then probably not high enough to actually beat out Jake or Bacon King for the fifth slot just based on PR-STV mechanics.

[minionofmidas]

I was from district 4... I totally forgot about that, actually.

[bgwah]

Realistically, this is the best ticket the PLP could have put forward.

Hard to argue with that, considering you're not on it...

[Хahar 🤔]

I too assume that Wixted, Trondheim, and Afleitch will all gain enough votes to win election based on the sheer number of first preferences they'll received, with the remaining seats going to any combination of EarlAW, Rocky, Sensei, Bacon King, or possibly Jake, depending on how conservatives choose to first-preference their ballots and how loyal NLC members are to the recommended fourth and fifth preferences.

(Rocky will do well based on being 4th and/or 5th preferenced by members of both the NLC and PLP plus a scattering of higher-level support elsewhere based on personal friendships; Sensei and Earl are good candidates based on their high PLP preferencing and lower preferencing from other non-PLP liberals; Bacon King and Jake look good based on a lower preferencing from NLCers but higher preferencing from conservatives.  I generally assume that Culture King will lose re-election out of lack of favorable preferencing by anyone to the right of the JCP (also factoring in burned bridges with the PLP), and Hashemite too may lose out based on a lower preferencing by NLC members and lower support among other subgroups against fellow competitors for the fourth or fifth slots.  Happy Warrior will struggle for the same reason Hashemite will, or so I predict.)

South Park Conservative had a strong showing in the special election, though that was primarily due to his actually being from District 4 (same goes for Lewis—had Colin been a resident of D4 there is no question that he would have won the race, probably handily).  He's likely to get preferenced solely by conservatives, and then probably not high enough to actually beat out Jake or Bacon King for the fifth slot just based on PR-STV mechanics.

Good analysis. But basically, we'll know in a week.

I was from district 4... I totally forgot about that, actually.

Realistically, this is the best ticket the PLP could have put forward.

Hard to argue with that, considering you're not on it...

Hah. That's basically what I said, though not as directly.

[Platypus]

I was from district 4... I totally forgot about that, actually.

And yet it was why you won