TX-KVUE/Public Strategies tracking poll: Clinton moves ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

Clinton: 46%
Obama: 45%
Undecided: 9%

Our poll continues to indicate that the undecided voters tend to care more about the economy than voters that have made their pick.

That could be a good sign for Obama, because he leads Clinton among voters who believe the economy is the most important issue in this election.

However, the undecided voters also tend to be more heavily Democratic than those who tell us they have decided – which is good news for Clinton. She is leading among people who describe themselves as strong Democrats.

Most of the trends we have been following held steady between Wednesday and Thursday, when the calls for this tracking poll were made. However, one key indicator for Clinton surged upwards.

Her support among Hispanics has jumped 11 points, to 67 percent to Obama’s 27 percent. On Thursday, this number was 61 to 32.

Obama is maintaining his formidable lead among African Americans, at 79 percent to Clinton’s 12.

Clinton continues to lead among white voters, 49 percent to 42 percent.

http://www.khou.com/elections/poll/belopoll229.pdf

[CARLHAYDEN]

I suspect this poll will prove to be defective since many voters who would ususally vote in the Republican primary will instead opt to vote in the Democrat primary and they will overwhelmingly vote against Clinton.

Figure Obama 50, Clinton 47.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Title's misleading since it could be nothing but MoE movement easily with these numbers. Of course that's also true for Obama taking the lead, but not for how much he's gained since their first poll.

[ThePrezMex]

I don't think we are clear yet about in which primary are republicans are more likely to vote. But I'm not sure that they would vote overwhelmingly against Hillary, if anything it will be exactly the opposite. Most republican friends I've talked to here in Austin are way more scared about Obama.. and I'm not talking in electoral terms but about the prospects of an obama presidency.

I suspect this poll will prove to be defective since many voters who would ususally vote in the Republican primary will instead opt to vote in the Democrat primary and they will overwhelmingly vote against Clinton.

Figure Obama 50, Clinton 47.

[Alcon]

I don't think we are clear yet about in which primary are republicans are more likely to vote. But I'm not sure that they would vote overwhelmingly against Hillary, if anything it will be exactly the opposite. Most republican friends I've talked to here in Austin are way more scared about Obama.. and I'm not talking in electoral terms but about the prospects of an obama presidency.

Over and over, in polls and exit polls, we have seen that strategic voting tends to be minor and most Republicans are voting for Obama.

Maybe this has changed some, but I doubt it's inverted.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Obama won 72% of Republicans in Wisconsin, with a voting system comparable to Texas.

[Aizen]

I don't think we are clear yet about in which primary are republicans are more likely to vote. But I'm not sure that they would vote overwhelmingly against Hillary, if anything it will be exactly the opposite. Most republican friends I've talked to here in Austin are way more scared about Obama.. and I'm not talking in electoral terms but about the prospects of an obama presidency.

No it won't be the opposite. The Republicans will go overwhelmingly for Obama. Everything has pointed to that. A few Republicans you've talked to is pointless trivia compared to the data we've seen. That Texan here on this very forum (agcatter) voted for Obama, didn't he?

[agcatter]

I did indeed.  Limbaugh might have talked some Republicans into voting for Clinton the last few days but not enough to save her.  The handwriting is on the wall in Texas.

[Verily]

I'm not finding today's KVUE poll on their page. I thought they were released at 10 Eastern each day.

[Alcon]

I'm not finding today's KVUE poll on their page. I thought they were released at 10 Eastern each day.

Even weekends?

[Verily]

I'm not finding today's KVUE poll on their page. I thought they were released at 10 Eastern each day.

Even weekends?

I would assume a tracking poll would continue on at least Saturday. Maybe not.

[Alcon]

http://www.beloblog.com/KVUE_Blogs/politicaljunkie/

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[Mr.Phips]

Is this the BELO poll?

[Mr.Phips]

It looks like it is.

[Alcon]

Is this the BELO poll?

Yes

[Mr.Phips]

This is the poll that everyone has been citing as evidence of a Hillary surge.