Next Wave of EU Expansion

[Michael Z]

Croatia, Iceland, Moldova. Montenegro and Bosnia as well, perhaps.

Tadic's victory made Serbia's inclusion slightly more likely, but only slightly and I think there are still too many hard feelings over the Kosovo war for this to happen any time soon.

Kosovo and Ukraine won't join for the foreseeable future, because Russia would go absolutely apes***t if they did.

Turkey won't join in the next immediate phase because key member states like Germany and UK are still at loggerheads over this issue; but I do believe it will happen at some point before 2020.

[Michael Z]

why isn't Norway in the EU?

Economic reasons, mainly. Norway has one of the most generous welfare states on the planet, yet it's also horrendously expensive compared to other EU countries, and they're loath to give up that "special status". There are probably other reasons, but that's it in a nutshell, I think.

However, there are special agreements in place which mean that they effectively have quasi-EU status.

[Michael Z]

Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Iceland.

I'm against Turkey in Europe. The Turkish government's recent law on headscarves backs me up my argument.

Because obviously headscarves = terrorism.

The European fascination with the relationship between headscarves and Islamic extremism, along with minarets and this extremism has always amazed me.  I don't understand where these concepts come from.

Wow, just wow.

I never said anything about headscarves=terrorism. My point was in fact about secularism in Turkey.

Wow.

I would consider equal rights for people of all religious preferences to be an important part of secularism, wouldn't you?

Since when? Secularism is the rejection of religious doctrines, not some form of equalitarianism. Besides, we're talking about a system of enforced secularism - in Turkey, they very much have a "Give them an inch and they'll take a mile"-attitude towards Islamists, which dates back to the Ataturk period.

However, I think the main reason some EU governments such as Germany are against Turkey joining is the human rights abuses taking place there, especially against the Kurds, not to mention all that stuff about the Armenian genocide. For as long as Turkey doesn't address these issues, EU membership is unlikely. You could of course look at it from another angle and suggest that membership is the proverbial carrot on the stick that's being held out for Turkey to address its human rights abuses.

There are of course other, pettier reasons, which are mostly related to Germany's sizeable Turkish community, but that's neither here nor there.