Venezuela, Ecuador send troops to Columbian border

[ag]

Who told you that Uribe is unpopular domestically? He has only recently been reelected, gaining 62% of the vote in a field of 7 candidates (at least 4 of them, including himself, potentially serious or semi-serious). His nearest challenger got 22%. His anti-FARC moves seem to be not merely popular, but super-popular within Colombia. My understanding is, the recent operation in Ecuadorean territory is, likewise, rather popular domestically.  Of course, Venezuelans could count on the support of FARC, etc. - but don't underestimate how much an average Colombian hates those organizations.

True enough, roughly at the same time Chavez also got reelected with, roughly, the same result (a tad under 63% of the vote, against 37% for the only serious challenger). But he has since been in more difficult straights, loosing in a referendum (in part, because the army, apparently, refused to support him in case he were to falsify the result).

Part of the reason of his decline in popularity is in the major economic problems emerging within Venezuela, which largely hurt his natural supporters (the rich can substitute the missing chicken eggs, of which there is a shortage due to price controls, with eggs of some exotic fowl; the poor can't). Given that Venezuela imports most of its food (mostly from the US and Colombia - likely to be disrupted by war) and  that it crucially relies on oil income to pay for those imports (a few successful bombardments of oil isntallations by Colombian airforce could sharply reduce oil production, at least in the short term), and war becomes a rather shaky propositino to sustain.

The idea of a war with Colombia is not very popular in Venezuela - not even in the Venezuelan military. Furthermore, Venezuela is highly polarized, and the state of Zulia - immediately on the Colombian border - is a hotbed of opposition to Chavez. Actually, I wouldn't be surprized that, in case of a war, local politicians would be tempted to rebel, form an alternative government of Venezuela (and "invite" Colombian help). Not likely to happen, as Zulia is very patriotically Venezuelan - but it remains to be seen, what do they feel stronger: love of their country or hatred of Chavez. Considering, that, at least at present, Venezuelan opposition does not believe Colombia is much at fault (and given lack of formal provocation against Venezuela per se), it would take some work to keep the country united.  BTW, Zulia is also the main oil-producing region.

As for popularity of Correa in Ecuador - he barely got elected in the first place, having gotten only 22% of the vote in the first round of the election. He is very polarizing, highly disliked in the country's largest city (Guayaquil). True, in case of a war there would be an instant of nation-unifying patriotism - but how long could it be sustained in the face of military and economic difficulties is a big question.

To sum up, on the existing evidence, Uribe is not at all the least popular of the three presidents - in fact, the opposite is likely to be true.

[ag]

Doesn't the FARC have substantial support in parts of Colombia - mostly in the Andes region?A guerrila group, however unpopular, usualy has at least some local support, or it doesn't last as long as FARC.

Of course it does.  Nobody would argue otherwise. There are areas of significant support for the rebels, otherwise they would not have been as successful as they are. Still, this seems to be a minority opinion in Colombia: - Uribe has built his entire political career on finishing FARC off, and he's done pretty good for himself.

One thing I wonder about: when Ecuadorean/Venezuelan FMs meet their Colombian counterpart Araujo, what are they going to tell him? It would take some balls to defend FARC in front of that guy.  I'd pay as lot to be a fly on the wall of that room.

[ag]

Doesn't the FARC have substantial support in parts of Colombia - mostly in the Andes region?A guerrila group, however unpopular, usualy has at least some local support, or it doesn't last as long as FARC.

Of course it does.  Nobody would argue otherwise. There are areas of significant support for the rebels, otherwise they would not have been as successful as they are. Still, this seems to be a minority opinion in Colombia: - Uribe has built his entire political career on finishing FARC off, and he's done pretty good for himself.

One thing I wonder about: when Ecuadorean/Venezuelan FMs meet their Colombian counterpart Araujo, what are they going to tell him? It would take some balls to defend FARC in front of that guy.  I'd pay as lot to be a fly on the wall of that room.

Well, he on the other hand will have to defend their incursion into Ecuador, so it wouldn't be completely onesided.

Formally, no, it won't be one-sided.  In personal terms... Check out Araujo's bio.