TX PrimD: Insider Advantage: Clinton leads Obama by 4% in Texas

[Alcon]

New Poll: Texas President by Insider Advantage on 2008-03-02

Summary:

Clinton:	49%
Obama:	45%
Other:	-1%
Undecided:	7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Also:

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[exopolitician]

She leads in early voting?!


I DONT UNDERSTANDDDD

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

She leads in early voting?!


I DONT UNDERSTANDDDD

Hispanics have a higher rate of early voting.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

On a whole Insider Advantage isn't terrible, but if you look at their record they have a habit of greatly underrating Obama (just look at the pre-Super Tuesday polling.) It's all in the south too, so maybe they tend to really undersample blacks? We'll see.

[Flying Dog]

Ahh....Screw it.

[Flying Dog]

Actually, SUSA's last poll had early voting at 50-48 Clinton. That was with their horrid model only accounting for a 17% African American vote and 32% Hispanic vote. I won't freak out....yet.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, she can.

[Flying Dog]

Some Reports from the field:

Here are some interesting statistics from Dusty Knight, Chief Deputy to Nelda Spears, Tax Collector, about early voting in the Democratic Primary:

96,801 early voted as Democrats in Travis County

47,531 were first time voters in a primary.

    The "first time voters" means it was the first time to vote in a PRIMARY. Of the 47,531 first time primary voters, 34,622 had voted in a previous general or city election, leaving 12,909 (13% of the total)who have never voted at all before).

49,270 had a voting history in Primary elections:.

    37,924 had only voted in Democratic Primary in the past.
     4,768 had only voted in Republican Primary in the past.
     6,578 had voted in either Democratic or Republican Primary in the past.

We've got a Democratic Primary in this Strongly Blue County that (so far) shows that

So:
13% have never voted before at all
36% are what we might call "independent" (i.e., General Election-only voters)
12% are former Republican voters (11,346 of the total)

That's means that 61% of the people voting in the Democratic Primary are not traditional Democratic voters.

"First time" (in a Primary) voters by age:
over 60     5,819
50 - 60     7,174
40 - 50     7,974
30 - 40   11,777
20 - 30   12,662
18 - 20     2,084

[MarkWarner08]

Yes, she can.

Casey Hens... Bob Casey's latest vocation: farmer! He'll unstoppable.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, she can.

Casey Hens... Bob Casey's latest vocation: farmer! He'll unstoppable.

Uh?

[MarkWarner08]

Yes, she can.

Casey Hens... Bob Casey's latest vocation: farmer! He'll unstoppable.

Uh?

Yes, she can = Casey Hens.  Since you love all things Bob Casey Jr., I thought you'd get a kick out of  that.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, she can.

Casey Hens... Bob Casey's latest vocation: farmer! He'll unstoppable.

Uh?

Yes, she can = Casey Hens.  Since you love all things Bob Casey Jr., I thought you'd get a kick out of  that.

Uh...ok.