most retrospectively amusing comments about the GOP nomination race

[Eraserhead]

Well... at least my comments in the Fred Thompson thread were spot on.

[Brittain33]

Well... at least my comments in the Fred Thompson thread were spot on.

Yeah, the OP got spanked from the get-go.

[minionofmidas]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.375

lol @ the McCain resurgence.  Of course, I'm rooting for him.  Hard.

^^^^^^^

at that time Giuliani appeared much more likely to fare well in a general election than did McCain.

Uh... to whom?

[Mr. Morden]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.375

lol @ the McCain resurgence.  Of course, I'm rooting for him.  Hard.

^^^^^^^

at that time Giuliani appeared much more likely to fare well in a general election than did McCain.

Uh... to whom?

Back when McCain's campaign was flailing, lots of people were using the train of logic "His campaign is inept, he doesn't know what he's doing --> he'd be a bad GE candidate".  Not sure it makes much sense, but lots of people frequently tether their opinion of how a candidate would do in the general election with how they're doing in the primary.

[Verily]

I think it had more to do with McCain's much stronger ties to Iraq. Back in early-to-mid 2007, it still looked like the 2008 election would be all Iraq, all the time.

[Mr. Morden]

On McCain's electability, here's an interesting one:

Romney has also surpassed both Gore and Thompson in the "winning individual" market, and is now at 10.6.

I find it hilarious that there are people who actually think Romney could win a general election in 2008.

I think he'd have a better chance than McCain.  Romney is very very bright and very smooth, although a complete sleaze, but they all are.  McCain is just an f'ing corpse at this point.

[cannonia]

Call me crazy, but I think I have a suspicion about what's going on behind the scenes in the GOP primary. I think that McCain has found out long ago that he will not win the Republican nomination, but had an ace up his sleeve: Fred Thompson. I think it is possible that McCain may have encouraged Thompson to consider a run. Now, out front, this may seem insane, but think about the long-term effects. First off, many Republicans are uncomfortable with the current frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani, and want an alternative. McCain might have thought that Thompson could absorb the anti-McCain vote from Giuliani, and to a lesser extent Romney, thus diminishing Giuliani's lead. Also, when Thompson finally participates in a debate, it will provide McCain an opportunity to gain some debate points by attacking Giuliani and Romney, while they are too preoccupied attacking Thompson. Then assuming Thompson's campaign does fail, he could drop out and endorse McCain, thus making him relevant again.

Of course, if this plan doesn't work, there is always plan B. Thompson's candidacy may not be a secret plan to help McCain, but it may actually be genuine. It is possible that McCain realized his campaign was dying, but, rather than try to resuscitate it, he tried to ressurect it. Maybe McCain encouraged Thompson to run, to give McCain a second chance. McCain could drop out and endorse Thompson, then become the VP nominee after he wins the nomination, although he would really be in control of the ticket. I'm not saying this is all true, but I'm just trying to start speculation and a discussion.

SPC's best post ever.

Yeah, the rationale is not completely right, but the Thompson-Huckabee competition really did give McCain the nomination.  Crazy what a crowded, competitive field can do.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, the rationale is not completely right, but the Thompson-Huckabee competition really did give McCain the nomination.  Crazy what a crowded, competitive field can do.

As I've said before, McCain may have won because he failed to beat Thompson for 3rd place in Iowa.  (Thus, possibly keeping Thompson in longer, which killed Huckabee's chances of beating McCain in SC.)

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani people asking McCain to drop out in November:

"David Watts, the Northeast Political Director of Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign, held a meeting with about twenty key New Jersey supporters, including Senate Minority Leader-designate Thomas Kean and Ocean County GOP Chairman George Gilmore, on November 17 to discuss the exportation of volunteers to New Hampshire. Watts explained that the former New York City Mayor is the second choice of John McCain supporters. That prompted a discussion of McCain’s withdrawal, and a request that Gilmore ask New Jersey Republican State Chairman Tom Wilson, a McCain supporter, to call upon McCain to drop out of the race. Gilmore told the group he’s taking that “under advisement.” Kean’s father, former Governor Thomas Kean, Sr., endorsed McCain last week."

—PolitickerNJ.com

good God. Huckabee is going to sweep everything before FLorida.

Unless, Giuliani sweeps super Tuesday I don't see anyone going into the convention with anything close to a majority of delegates.

Thread from as late as December 20th titled "Only Romney and Huckabee stand a chance at the nomination at this point":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=66629

Having said that, I'd like to know what MODU is smoking when he says that Giuliani still has the best shot.

Only the same thing that the people saying McCain and Paul are still in it.   

[DownWithTheLeft]

And from a thread titled "Predict the winners in all the early primary states"

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=65716.0

Republicans:
IA: Huckabee
WY: Romney
NH: Ron Paul
MI: Giuliani 
SC: Huckabee
NV: Huckabee
FL: Huckabee
ME: Giuliani

Democrat:
IA: Clinton
All others except a few outliers: Clinton

Well, I was really wrong about the Dems, but I nailed IA, WY, SC for the GOP

[Verily]

On McCain's electability, here's an interesting one:

Romney has also surpassed both Gore and Thompson in the "winning individual" market, and is now at 10.6.

I find it hilarious that there are people who actually think Romney could win a general election in 2008.

I think he'd have a better chance than McCain.  Romney is very very bright and very smooth, although a complete sleaze, but they all are.  McCain is just an f'ing corpse at this point.

Well, that's a bit of a hypothetical still. We have no idea what things will look like in November yet, nor whether Romney would have actually done worse than McCain.

[Verily]

And from a thread titled "Predict the winners in all the early primary states"

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=65716.0

Republicans:
IA: Huckabee
WY: Romney
NH: Ron Paul
MI: Giuliani 
SC: Huckabee
NV: Huckabee
FL: Huckabee
ME: Giuliani

Democrat:
IA: Clinton
All others except a few outliers: Clinton

Well, I was really wrong about the Dems, but I nailed IA, WY, SC for the GOP

McCain won South Carolina.

[YRABNNRM]

I usually made predictions with the intention of them being wrong so that I didn't jinx the outcome which seems to happen with me. Seems like it worked for me in of the primary contests!

[DownWithTheLeft]

And from a thread titled "Predict the winners in all the early primary states"

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=65716.0

Republicans:
IA: Huckabee
WY: Romney
NH: McCain
MI: Romney 
SC: McCain
NV: Romney
FL: McCain

Democrat:
IA: Obama
Close race ending in Obama victory in early June

Well, I was really wrong about the Dems, but I nailed IA, WY, SC for the GOP

McCain won South Carolina.

Well, then I'll do this

[Mr. Morden]

On McCain's electability, here's an interesting one:

Romney has also surpassed both Gore and Thompson in the "winning individual" market, and is now at 10.6.

I find it hilarious that there are people who actually think Romney could win a general election in 2008.

I think he'd have a better chance than McCain.  Romney is very very bright and very smooth, although a complete sleaze, but they all are.  McCain is just an f'ing corpse at this point.

Well, that's a bit of a hypothetical still. We have no idea what things will look like in November yet, nor whether Romney would have actually done worse than McCain.

True.  I was basically posting that as part of the discussion spawned by this:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.375

lol @ the McCain resurgence.  Of course, I'm rooting for him.  Hard.

^^^^^^^

at that time Giuliani appeared much more likely to fare well in a general election than did McCain.

Uh... to whom?

....reminding people that yes, there was a time when some people were saying that McCain might not be that electable when compared to the rest of the GOP field.  Now the CW seems to be that he's more electable than Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney, or Thompson would have been....though of course there's no way to prove that.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Anything Winfield said regarding his worship of Mitt Romney.

[Mr. Morden]

Have to bump this thread because I found this:

Let's face reality, folks. Neither McCain, Giuliani nor Romney will be candidates for President in 2008 and if they are, they won't get far!

[Keystone Phil]

Have to bump this thread because I found this:

Let's face reality, folks. Neither McCain, Giuliani nor Romney will be candidates for President in 2008 and if they are, they won't get far!

Well, Rudy didn't really get far. I got that much right!

[AltWorlder]

So was he expecting it to be a deadlock between the fearsome fighters of Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, and George Allen?

[Keystone Phil]

So was he expecting it to be a deadlock between the fearsome fighters of Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, and George Allen?

I guess that was directed at me.

I thought Allen would be running along with a few other possibilities. I thought Sanford or Owens might give it a try. Remember that Brownback was also in the race.

This was three years ago. These things sounded perfectly sane back then. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Giuliani people asking McCain to drop out in November:

"David Watts, the Northeast Political Director of Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign, held a meeting with about twenty key New Jersey supporters, including Senate Minority Leader-designate Thomas Kean and Ocean County GOP Chairman George Gilmore, on November 17 to discuss the exportation of volunteers to New Hampshire. Watts explained that the former New York City Mayor is the second choice of John McCain supporters. That prompted a discussion of McCain’s withdrawal, and a request that Gilmore ask New Jersey Republican State Chairman Tom Wilson, a McCain supporter, to call upon McCain to drop out of the race. Gilmore told the group he’s taking that “under advisement.” Kean’s father, former Governor Thomas Kean, Sr., endorsed McCain last week."

—PolitickerNJ.com

Is it too late now to get him to drop out? 

[Mr. Morden]

So was he expecting it to be a deadlock between the fearsome fighters of Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, and George Allen?

I guess that was directed at me.

I thought Allen would be running along with a few other possibilities. I thought Sanford or Owens might give it a try. Remember that Brownback was also in the race.

This was three years ago. These things sounded perfectly sane back then. 

Allen, Sanford, Owens, Frist, and Pawlenty all seemed like plausible options back then.  In your defense, there were good reasons to think that Giuliani, McCain, and Romney might not run.  There were serious questions about whether the conservative base of the party would accept any of them (this was before Romney's flip-flops), and so any of them might plausibly have opted out because they didn't think they could win the nom.  (And with McCain, there were also questions about whether he might opt out because of his age / health.)

In fact, right up until Giuliani threw his hat in the ring, I doubted that he would actually do it, since I didn't think he was foolish enough to think that he could win the GOP nomination.  I guess he was that foolish.

[Keystone Phil]

Allen, Sanford, Owens, Frist, and Pawlenty all seemed like plausible options back then.

Ah, yes! How could I forget the guy that I was supporting (assuming Santorum wasn't in the race) - Bill Frist. And, in retrospect, I am very happy that never happened. My opinion of the man went from very positive to "eh" at best.

[MODU]

Having said that, I'd like to know what MODU is smoking when he says that Giuliani still has the best shot.

Only the same thing that the people saying McCain and Paul are still in it.   

Yep, I was expecting Rudy to do better in Florida.  I think that if he had, this race would have been completely different.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Right after 2004, as I almost sure the 2008 race would come down to Bill Frist, Bill Owens, George Allen, and Mitt Romney

Perhaps my thread that I bump sometimes "Actor to Politics and Back Again" or something like that, should provide some fun material on Fred Thompson.  I was convinced he was going to win, he did, however, hand McCain the nomination by staying in the race in South Carolina.