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Хahar
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« on: March 05, 2008, 07:38:09 pm »
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Going to school today, I heard an ad attacking the House's stand against random wiretapping, and urging people to send letters to Jerry McNerney in support of wiretapping. Clearly, the race is in full swing already.

While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.

Thoughts?
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2008, 07:45:40 pm »
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I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.
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« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2008, 08:12:48 pm »
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While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.
I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2008, 08:16:40 pm »
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If Democrats lose this seat and win the White House, look for Democrats to get nothing done in 2009.  This is the exact kind of seat that Democrats are going to have to hold if they want to have a meaningful majority. 
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« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2008, 08:22:27 pm »
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While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.
I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.
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« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2008, 08:30:52 pm »
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While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.
I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 
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« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2008, 08:39:09 pm »
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While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.
I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2008, 08:43:26 pm »
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While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.
I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.

Its no more of a Republican district for California than NC-13 is a Democratic district for North Carolina. 
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Хahar
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2008, 08:47:56 pm »
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While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.
I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.

Its no more of a Republican district for California than NC-13 is a Democratic district for North Carolina. 

But it hands the Republican easy victories in normal years.
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2008, 08:55:59 pm »
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While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.
I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.

Its no more of a Republican district for California than NC-13 is a Democratic district for North Carolina. 

But it hands the Republican easy victories in normal years.

Bush only won it 53%-46% in 2004 and Democrats have held seats in this general area in California in the past.  Tony Coehlo(1978-1988) and John McFall(?-1978) are two that come to mind. 
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Хahar
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« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2008, 09:04:22 pm »
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While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.
I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.

Its no more of a Republican district for California than NC-13 is a Democratic district for North Carolina. 

But it hands the Republican easy victories in normal years.

Bush only won it 53%-46% in 2004 and Democrats have held seats in this general area in California in the past.  Tony Coehlo(1978-1988) and John McFall(?-1978) are two that come to mind. 

But "general area" does not mean "generally similar politics"; the 11th once covered much of Silicon Valley.
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« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2008, 09:05:43 pm »
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While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.
I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.

Its no more of a Republican district for California than NC-13 is a Democratic district for North Carolina. 

But it hands the Republican easy victories in normal years.

Bush only won it 53%-46% in 2004 and Democrats have held seats in this general area in California in the past.  Tony Coehlo(1978-1988) and John McFall(?-1978) are two that come to mind. 

But "general area" does not mean "generally similar politics"; the 11th once covered much of Silicon Valley.

The districts they represented included all of San Joquain county and most of the rural areas connected to it. 
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« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2008, 10:45:27 pm »
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I doubt the GOP will take back CD-11. The trends are bad in the bit that is in the Bay metro area that high income suburb whose name escapes me), and the hinterlands have had a real estate meltdown.
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« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2008, 10:55:10 pm »
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Dean Andal, McNerney's opponent, think our national defense is underfunded. Anyone who thinks Bush hasn't pushed for enough funds for the military probably isn't too aware of the post 9/11 defense budget. If he wanted to complain about the lack of body armor, he'd have a point. Saying that our anti-terror operations are underfunded is laughable.
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« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2008, 10:56:07 pm »
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Dean Andal, McNerney's opponent, think our national defense is underfunded. Anyone who thinks Bush hasn't pushed for enough funds for the military probably isn't too aware of the post 9/11 defense budget. If he wanted to complain about the lack of body armor, he'd have a point. Saying that our anti-terror operations are underfunded is laughable.

I personally think that Dean Andal would be a very bad match for this district. 
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2008, 11:01:54 pm »
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Dean Andal, McNerney's opponent, think our national defense is underfunded. Anyone who thinks Bush hasn't pushed for enough funds for the military probably isn't too aware of the post 9/11 defense budget. If he wanted to complain about the lack of body armor, he'd have a point. Saying that our anti-terror operations are underfunded is laughable.

I personally think that Dean Andal would be a very bad match for this district. 
Yeah. Andal is probably too far to the right for this district. As long as McNerney can hold the middle, hell be in good shape here politically.
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« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2008, 11:08:57 pm »
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Andal is settled? In that case, change this one to lean Democratic.

Wasn't Brent Jones running?
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« Reply #17 on: March 10, 2008, 07:40:12 pm »
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Andal is settled? In that case, change this one to lean Democratic.

Agreed.  The Republicans are giving up a good opportunity by not fighting hard for this district.
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« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2008, 07:46:42 pm »
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Dean Andal, McNerney's opponent, think our national defense is underfunded. Anyone who thinks Bush hasn't pushed for enough funds for the military probably isn't too aware of the post 9/11 defense budget. If he wanted to complain about the lack of body armor, he'd have a point. Saying that our anti-terror operations are underfunded is laughable.

I personally think that Dean Andal would be a very bad match for this district. 
Yeah. Andal is probably too far to the right for this district. As long as McNerney can hold the middle, hell be in good shape here politically.

This district will likely be made very safe for him in 2012.  All they would need to do is shed off the most Republican parts of San Joquain county and extend the district further towards the bay picking up more Hispanics and some African Americans. 
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« Reply #19 on: March 10, 2008, 07:47:40 pm »
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Dean Andal, McNerney's opponent, think our national defense is underfunded. Anyone who thinks Bush hasn't pushed for enough funds for the military probably isn't too aware of the post 9/11 defense budget. If he wanted to complain about the lack of body armor, he'd have a point. Saying that our anti-terror operations are underfunded is laughable.

I personally think that Dean Andal would be a very bad match for this district. 
Yeah. Andal is probably too far to the right for this district. As long as McNerney can hold the middle, hell be in good shape here politically.

This district will likely be made very safe for him in 2012.  All they would need to do is shed off the most Republican parts of San Joquain county and extend the district further towards the bay picking up more Hispanics and some African Americans. 
Agreed. Before he can be saved by gerrmandering, he needs is win in 2008 and 2010. Tongue
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« Reply #20 on: March 10, 2008, 08:20:02 pm »
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Dean Andal, McNerney's opponent, think our national defense is underfunded. Anyone who thinks Bush hasn't pushed for enough funds for the military probably isn't too aware of the post 9/11 defense budget. If he wanted to complain about the lack of body armor, he'd have a point. Saying that our anti-terror operations are underfunded is laughable.

I personally think that Dean Andal would be a very bad match for this district. 
Yeah. Andal is probably too far to the right for this district. As long as McNerney can hold the middle, hell be in good shape here politically.

This district will likely be made very safe for him in 2012.  All they would need to do is shed off the most Republican parts of San Joquain county and extend the district further towards the bay picking up more Hispanics and some African Americans. 
Agreed. Before he can be saved by gerrmandering, he needs is win in 2008 and 2010. Tongue

I think he may skate by in 2008, but he is one of those Democratic Congressman that is probably secretly hoping McCain wins so 2010 wont be a bad midterm year where he would likely lose. 
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« Reply #21 on: March 10, 2008, 08:21:32 pm »
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This district will likely be made very safe for him in 2012.  All they would need to do is shed off the most Republican parts of San Joquain county and extend the district further towards the bay picking up more Hispanics and some African Americans. 

Except that the population growth has been bigger in the Central Valley than in the Bay Area.  Unless California gets another seat in the House, this district or another one (the 10th? the 7th?) will be pushed eastward rather than westward.
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Хahar
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« Reply #22 on: March 11, 2008, 07:34:47 pm »
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This district will likely be made very safe for him in 2012.  All they would need to do is shed off the most Republican parts of San Joquain county and extend the district further towards the bay picking up more Hispanics and some African Americans. 

Except that the population growth has been bigger in the Central Valley than in the Bay Area.  Unless California gets another seat in the House, this district or another one (the 10th? the 7th?) will be pushed eastward rather than westward.

I doubt it. There are several VERY safe districts in the East Bay that can be pushed eastward.
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« Reply #23 on: March 11, 2008, 07:39:45 pm »
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This district will likely be made very safe for him in 2012.  All they would need to do is shed off the most Republican parts of San Joquain county and extend the district further towards the bay picking up more Hispanics and some African Americans. 

Except that the population growth has been bigger in the Central Valley than in the Bay Area.  Unless California gets another seat in the House, this district or another one (the 10th? the 7th?) will be pushed eastward rather than westward.

I doubt it. There are several VERY safe districts in the East Bay that can be pushed eastward.

Exactly and that would be in exchange for moving CA-11 westward to take in some of those safe Democratic areas. 
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Хahar
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« Reply #24 on: March 11, 2008, 09:51:13 pm »
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I can see CA-11 and CA-7 exchanging some territory. Both districts would look UGLY, but that's never stopped incumbent gerrymandering before. Tongue
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