Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 01, 2014, 10:54:58 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  CA-11
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] Print
Author Topic: CA-11  (Read 8618 times)
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13355


View Profile
« Reply #50 on: May 19, 2008, 11:06:20 pm »
Ignore

Yeah seriously the district is more suburban bay area than it seems. Brentwood, Tracy,Mountain house are all suburban and will probably vote similar to the tri-valley region. Andal was probably selected by the crazies that are all over the place in the valley. Even the exurbs of the bay area are not that extreme. If the republicans were smart they would pick some GOP moderate from the suburbs. Anyways Andal cant swim against the wave that is coming for the GOP.
Logged
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38753
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #51 on: June 03, 2008, 06:51:58 pm »
Ignore

Yeah seriously the district is more suburban bay area than it seems. Brentwood, Tracy,Mountain house are all suburban and will probably vote similar to the tri-valley region. Andal was probably selected by the crazies that are all over the place in the valley. Even the exurbs of the bay area are not that extreme. If the republicans were smart they would pick some GOP moderate from the suburbs. Anyways Andal cant swim against the wave that is coming for the GOP.

I'm surprised they can't win this one. Pombo almost held onto his seat, so any other Republican should be able to take it. But it is not to be.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
MarkWarner08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5846


View Profile
« Reply #52 on: June 03, 2008, 07:03:25 pm »
Ignore

Yeah seriously the district is more suburban bay area than it seems. Brentwood, Tracy,Mountain house are all suburban and will probably vote similar to the tri-valley region. Andal was probably selected by the crazies that are all over the place in the valley. Even the exurbs of the bay area are not that extreme. If the republicans were smart they would pick some GOP moderate from the suburbs. Anyways Andal cant swim against the wave that is coming for the GOP.

I'm surprised they can't win this one. Pombo almost held onto his seat, so any other Republican should be able to take it. But it is not to be.
To reiterate earlier comments, it's safe to say that CA-11 is trending left. As long as McNerney doesn't alienate the more rural parts of this district, he'll be pretty safe till redistricting*.

*Of course, he could be a victim in 2010 if Obama become President.
Logged

cannonia
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 961
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.42, S: -1.30

P
View Profile
« Reply #53 on: June 04, 2008, 12:06:40 am »
Ignore

Yeah seriously the district is more suburban bay area than it seems. Brentwood, Tracy,Mountain house are all suburban and will probably vote similar to the tri-valley region. Andal was probably selected by the crazies that are all over the place in the valley. Even the exurbs of the bay area are not that extreme. If the republicans were smart they would pick some GOP moderate from the suburbs. Anyways Andal cant swim against the wave that is coming for the GOP.

I'm surprised they can't win this one. Pombo almost held onto his seat, so any other Republican should be able to take it. But it is not to be.
To reiterate earlier comments, it's safe to say that CA-11 is trending left. As long as McNerney doesn't alienate the more rural parts of this district, he'll be pretty safe till redistricting*.

*Of course, he could be a victim in 2010 if Obama become President.

I won't say safe until I see this year's result.  There are a lot of dynamics that could change things one way or another.

On the other hand, I'm worried about the 15th Assembly District following CA-11 leftward. Sad
Logged
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38753
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #54 on: June 04, 2008, 12:19:41 am »
Ignore

Yeah seriously the district is more suburban bay area than it seems. Brentwood, Tracy,Mountain house are all suburban and will probably vote similar to the tri-valley region. Andal was probably selected by the crazies that are all over the place in the valley. Even the exurbs of the bay area are not that extreme. If the republicans were smart they would pick some GOP moderate from the suburbs. Anyways Andal cant swim against the wave that is coming for the GOP.

I'm surprised they can't win this one. Pombo almost held onto his seat, so any other Republican should be able to take it. But it is not to be.
To reiterate earlier comments, it's safe to say that CA-11 is trending left. As long as McNerney doesn't alienate the more rural parts of this district, he'll be pretty safe till redistricting*.

*Of course, he could be a victim in 2010 if Obama become President.

I won't say safe until I see this year's result.  There are a lot of dynamics that could change things one way or another.

On the other hand, I'm worried about the 15th Assembly District following CA-11 leftward. Sad

Primary vote totals seem to be nearly even between Dems and GOP.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13355


View Profile
« Reply #55 on: June 04, 2008, 01:42:36 am »
Ignore

Yeah seriously the district is more suburban bay area than it seems. Brentwood, Tracy,Mountain house are all suburban and will probably vote similar to the tri-valley region. Andal was probably selected by the crazies that are all over the place in the valley. Even the exurbs of the bay area are not that extreme. If the republicans were smart they would pick some GOP moderate from the suburbs. Anyways Andal cant swim against the wave that is coming for the GOP.

I'm surprised they can't win this one. Pombo almost held onto his seat, so any other Republican should be able to take it. But it is not to be.
To reiterate earlier comments, it's safe to say that CA-11 is trending left. As long as McNerney doesn't alienate the more rural parts of this district, he'll be pretty safe till redistricting*.

*Of course, he could be a victim in 2010 if Obama become President.

I won't say safe until I see this year's result.  There are a lot of dynamics that could change things one way or another.

On the other hand, I'm worried about the 15th Assembly District following CA-11 leftward. Sad

Primary vote totals seem to be nearly even between Dems and GOP.

Yes there are too many rural and non hispanic towns in the CD. The suburbs of Stockton obviously do not help. I think Mcnerney is safe for this year but if Obama does not meet expectations, he could be in trouble in 2010. It is so frustrating considering it borders one of the most liberal CD's in the country and another one whose representative is an open atheist and considered one of the most liberal members of the congress.
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31184


View Profile
« Reply #56 on: June 04, 2008, 01:48:59 am »
Ignore

Growth in the I-680 corridor is probably making the district gradually more liberal. A second BART station in the district is under construction.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13355


View Profile
« Reply #57 on: June 04, 2008, 01:55:50 am »
Ignore

I recently read on this forum that dublin,ca was one of the fastest growing cities in california. Most of this growth is townhomes and smaller, more eco friendly housing. Many of them are close to the BART and have shopping facilities right below the apartments. It has that urban feel and I think they will vote accordingly. This will definitely help him.
Logged
Gravis Marketing
brittain33
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12724


View Profile
« Reply #58 on: June 04, 2008, 07:53:34 am »
Ignore

Yes there are too many rural and non hispanic towns in the CD. The suburbs of Stockton obviously do not help.

What are the suburbs of Stockton like these days? Any better than the suburbs of Merced and other boom-bust Central Valley housing markets?
Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13355


View Profile
« Reply #59 on: June 04, 2008, 08:38:37 am »
Ignore

Yes there are too many rural and non hispanic towns in the CD. The suburbs of Stockton obviously do not help.

What are the suburbs of Stockton like these days? Any better than the suburbs of Merced and other boom-bust Central Valley housing markets?

Those areas are not doing well at all right now as the housing crisis has hit those areas much worse than the actual bay area. That is one of the reasons why I think Mcnerney is safe for this year.
Logged
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38753
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #60 on: December 19, 2008, 05:39:00 pm »
Ignore

Well, it wasn't even close in the end...

Map:
« Last Edit: December 19, 2008, 05:49:45 pm by Attorney General Xahar »Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Pages: 1 2 [3] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines