New Survey USA Polls just out

[© tweed]

SUSA leans Democrat in their polling.

Look at their record.

They're pretty consistently at the outer edges of credibility in their polls, consistently in the same direction (more Democrat than the other credible polls).

They nailed 25/28 races in 2002.

Come on Tweed.

I want to see you again boast about the accuracy of SUSA.

What?  It's true!

One of Vorlon's graphics showed that.  They got 2 wrong and had one tied.  25-2-1.

[CARLHAYDEN]

So you don't dispute the MOE in the SUSA polls is rather large, or that SUSA pretty consistently favors Democrats relative to election results?

BTW, their average (mean) error with 4.7%.

[The Vorlon]

Facts are useful when discussing a pollster

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thank you.

I understated their mean error rate by one one hundredth of a per cent.

The point of my original posting on this thread was that the error rate was NOT equally distributed (i.e. they were not as equally likely to overstate the Republican vote as they were to overstate the Democrat vote).  With your data, SUSA leans Democrat on the average by 2.6%.

Now, every pollster to my mind is entitled to have an occasional error, so lets throw out the one race where SUSA most overstated the Republican vote, and one race where they most overstated the Democrat vote.

The result is the SUSA now leans Democrat by 3.7%.

I think I made my point.

Do you concur?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Mo.

Bush  +2

This surprised me.  Bush leading nationally by 5 should have been up by more.  Heck, he won by 3 last time with the national popular vote tied.


Penn

Kerry +2

This doesn't surprise me.


Ind, Kentucky, Kansas all Bush as expected.  Like I said, Mo. really is surprising.

SUSA leans Democrat in their polling.

Look at their record.

They're pretty consistently at the outer edges of credibility in their polls, consistently in the same direction (more Democrat than the other credible polls).

It really is tiring to here from you that the polls that may be 'surprising' or do not favor Bush the way you want them fit into your world are somehow.....Democratic leaning. If that were the case, why is not PA going Kerry by +5%???

The poll results are a bit closer than I expected as well. However, without delving too far into SUSA's methodology, they did have a pretty accurate record during the Democratic Primaries which, I'm sure most would agree, are tougher to poll for than a general election.

Also suggest you check out my post (no. 1080) on page 2 of this thread.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Facts are useful when discussing a pollster

Vorlon,

BTW, got my letter for charitable contributions from one charity the other day.

How much is the cut off for your site, and to where should I send a copy?

[CARLHAYDEN]

S-USA showing no bounce is odd.  They appear to have had a bit of an off round of polling.

Oh, mddem, your history of S-USA is not so good a way to refute Carl's claim that they have a pull toward the democrats.  There are no republicans to be pulling away from in those.

The problem is that Carl Hayden will cast doubt on 'any' poll that shows some advantage for Kerry or not bad news for Kerry. He has been doing that since long ago. The fact that he doesn't have a state or any avatar and he posts all the time attacks on Kerry disguised in some supposed polling expertise, makes him in my opinion the owner of the: 'stealth troll' award.

Oh, I posted the analysis of the SUSA numbers from 2002 (Vorlon was kind enought to post the numbers).

I suggest you read and and think before you post.