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Author Topic: Gallup: Kerry leads in Ohio, +10 RV, +2 LV  (Read 11636 times)
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jfern
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« on: August 18, 2004, 07:36:31 pm »
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Weird how large the difference between RV and LV is. Either, way, Rove can't be happy that a poll that is Republican biased has Kerry doing so well.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/18/ohio/index.html
« Last Edit: August 18, 2004, 07:36:48 pm by jfern »Logged
agcatter
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2004, 08:12:32 pm »
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Republican biased poll?
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Lunar
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2004, 08:31:43 pm »
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This is a huge difference between RV and LV.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2004, 08:33:52 pm »
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Kerry? Up 10 points in Ohio? Suuuure.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2004, 08:34:38 pm »
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8% difference between RV and LV....

Gonna have to think about that
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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2004, 08:36:12 pm »
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8% difference between RV and LV....

Gonna have to think about that

Oversampling of weak Kerry supporters combined with that ad campaign by the Swift Boat chaps?
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tinman64
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2004, 08:38:53 pm »
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2% sounds more like it than 10%.  

Will Nader be on the ballot in Nov.?
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Lunar
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2004, 08:44:56 pm »
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2% sounds more like it than 10%.  

Will Nader be on the ballot in Nov.?

The ballot requirements in Ohio seem pretty easy for such a large state, 8,000 signatures.
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tweed
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2004, 09:03:19 pm »
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8% difference between RV and LV....

Gonna have to think about that

Kerry is almost unquestionably up in WV right now.
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2004, 09:05:34 pm »
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Kerry IS NOT up 10% in Ohio.  That poll SUCKS.  Up 10 in Florida MAAAAAAYYYYBE.
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tweed
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2004, 09:06:54 pm »
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Kerry IS NOT up 10% in Ohio.  That poll SUCKS.  Up 10 in Florida MAAAAAAYYYYBE.

Nop he's up nowhere close to ten in either one, but I think he is up 2-3 in both.  Which is good.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2004, 09:19:44 pm »
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Gallup's weighting and/or screening for LVs has been consistantly strange this year.  There simply can't be that much of a difference between RVs and LVs when the samples should be mostly overlapping.  Between this, their post-convention national poll, and their post-Edwards NC poll, I'm really starting to lose faith in Gallup.  
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JNB
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2004, 09:21:55 pm »
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  The posters at Free Republic wet their pants when Gallup said Bush was ahead by 3+ points, my guess now they will say Gallup is bought and paid for by the Kerry camp.

 Again, I think that Gallup is off here as well. Bush I feel is a little behind in Ohio, maybe by more than 2 points but not less than 5 points. Again, people have to see that economics plays a large role here. A man may go to churcn every sunday, own 20 guns, but if he was laid off and his job sent to China, while his son cant get any footing in the construction industry because so many illegal aliens have been imported, he will be quite reluctant to vote for Bush.
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2004, 09:34:48 pm »
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Gallup is not the greatest state pollster out there.  Not terrible either, but not the best either.
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Reds4
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« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2004, 09:43:44 pm »
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Anyone willing to bet that Kerry wins Ohio by 10 points oin November? I'll take Bush and 10 points, heck I'll take Bush and 6 points.Man that would be some easy money my way. lol.
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King
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2004, 09:48:30 pm »
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CNN Polls are Republican Biased? Since when?
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Giant Saguaro
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« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2004, 10:18:43 pm »
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MOE is over 5 on this one. I don't know. I don't think it's 10, but the warning sign here once again is that Bush is not locking down his states. Kerry is locking down or has locked down the Gore states, which we see repeatedly.
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« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2004, 11:02:07 pm »
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I don't think Kerry has locked down Wisconsin, Iowa, and probably not Minnesota. I also think Bush has a shot at least in Oregon.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #18 on: August 18, 2004, 11:11:11 pm »
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I would agree with your assessment of Iowa and Wisconsin.  I would add NH to that list.  Kerry will likely take NH, but with that state you never know.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2004, 11:14:12 pm »
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I would agree with your assessment of Iowa and Wisconsin.  I would add NH to that list.  Kerry will likely take NH, but with that state you never know.

I think that right now Bush's chances in WI and IA are good. Looking back on the 2000 election, I'm surprised that Gore didn't take NH so at this time it's likely that NH will go for Kerry but you never know.
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King
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« Reply #20 on: August 18, 2004, 11:16:33 pm »
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I don't know...Kerry and Bush are tied in Wisconsin (Strategic Vision, 1% lead for Kerry in Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota...Illinois and Michigan are locked when it comes to the midwest...
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« Reply #21 on: August 18, 2004, 11:20:17 pm »
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I don't think Kerry has locked down Wisconsin, Iowa, and probably not Minnesota. I also think Bush has a shot at least in Oregon.

Maybe theoretically possibly IA and WI, but not the rest. See, I don't see Bush carrying IA and WI if he can't manage OH and WV because, at least my experience, you run up against roughly the same kind of people in those states.

MN and OR are out of the question, IMO. MN has symbolic worth for me - I want it to go GOP in positively the worst way, realizing it's not exactly worth a treasure trove of EV's, but it hasn't gone GOP in so long and it's got to flip one of these cycles. I think it's in the position where if we elected another Carter and things really went down the toilet, I mean big time, a Republican could have a shot at MN.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2004, 05:35:35 am »
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Kerry isn't up by 10... 5 at most, probably 2.55555r Tongue
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« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2004, 05:50:42 am »
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An 8-point disparity favoring Bush between registered voters and likely voters can mean one of two things:

1. Republicans are substantially more likely to actually vote than Democrats.
2. This poll sucks.

It might be the first option.  However, given the fact that Gallup was the polling agency that dredged up the 3-point lead for Bush following the Democratic National Convention, in spite of every other polling agency turning up at least a slight lead for Kerry, I'm inclined to think that it's the second.  Plus, a margin of error of 5% is huge, which leads me to believe further that this poll is telling us, first and foremost, "we had absolutely no clue what we were doing".
« Last Edit: August 19, 2004, 06:03:34 am by Gabu »Logged



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« Reply #24 on: August 19, 2004, 06:05:32 am »
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  The posters at Free Republic wet their pants when Gallup said Bush was ahead by 3+ points, my guess now they will say Gallup is bought and paid for by the Kerry camp.

 Again, I think that Gallup is off here as well. Bush I feel is a little behind in Ohio, maybe by more than 2 points but not less than 5 points. Again, people have to see that economics plays a large role here. A man may go to churcn every sunday, own 20 guns, but if he was laid off and his job sent to China, while his son cant get any footing in the construction industry because so many illegal aliens have been imported, he will be quite reluctant to vote for Bush.
Though he did do so last time around. Look at the county map of Ohio in 96 and 2000. Look at the Southeast, to be precise.
Oh, and I think you meant "not more than 5 points." Smiley
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