CARLHAYDEN
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Posts: 10,638
Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51
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« on: September 12, 2004, 08:27:34 PM » |
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First, I don't trust this survey because of the large difference between likely and registered voters.
Second, the last time a Democrat has done better in Ohio than in the nation was in 1972 when McGovern only lost Ohio by 21.56% margin.
From 1972=2000 the Democrat candidate for President has on the average underperformed his national average by 1.83% in Ohio.
So, to believe the Ohio results for likely voters, you would have to believe that Kerry at that time was ahead nationally by about four points.
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