PA PrimD: Rasmussen: Clinton With Strong Lead in Pennsylvania

[Dave Leip]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Rasmussen on 2008-03-05

Summary:

Clinton:	52%
Obama:	37%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[© Tweed the Younger]

ugly

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

[MSUfan]

I'll wait for SUSA.

[Speed of Sound]

Well, we certainly wont be busy. Time to go knock on doors!

[Lief]

I've stopped trusting polls that aren't SUSA.

[Former Moderate]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Uh, no. Most pollsters tend to UNDERRATE him. The only states he overpolled in were California and New Hampshire. Conversely look at Wisconsin, Virginia, Maryland, Missouri...

[Keystone Phil]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Uh, no. Most pollsters tend to UNDERRATE him. The only states he overpolled in were California and New Hampshire. Conversely look at Wisconsin, Virginia, Maryland, Missouri...

He also overpolled in RI, OH and VT.

[Lief]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Uh, no. Most pollsters tend to UNDERRATE him. The only states he overpolled in were California and New Hampshire. Conversely look at Wisconsin, Virginia, Maryland, Missouri...

He also overpolled in RI, OH and VT.

False, false, and false.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Counting only serious polls in Ohio near the end, it was practically nailed, SUSA had Hillary up 10, PPP had her up 9. There was barely any polls from RI, the last one was Feb. 23 with Hillary up 15, below her margin but so long ago. Same deal in Vermont basically, Rasmussen had him up 24 more than a week before. Also the Rasmussen poll could've easily been accurate if the undecideds broke for Hillary.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Research 2000 greatly underestimated Obama in VT.

As for PA, Obama should downplay it's importance. Clinton has the entire machine behind her there. He won't win it (barring a miracle).

[HockeyDude]

Research 2000 greatly underestimated Obama in VT.

As for PA, Obama should downplay it's importance. Clinton has the entire machine behind her there. He won't win it (barring a miracle).

He needs to mobilize the Philly area and have a respectable showing there.

[Sam Spade]

Research 2000 greatly underestimated Obama in VT.

As for PA, Obama should downplay it's importance. Clinton has the entire machine behind her there. He won't win it (barring a miracle).

He needs to mobilize the Philly area and have a respectable showing there.

Addendum:  You mean the black, upper-income areas of Philly.  Too bad Rendell's people won't be around to help.

More importantly, he needs to get as many Republicans in SE PA to switch their registrations to Democrat.  That'll probably be more help than turnout efforts.

[Keystone Phil]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Uh, no. Most pollsters tend to UNDERRATE him. The only states he overpolled in were California and New Hampshire. Conversely look at Wisconsin, Virginia, Maryland, Missouri...

He also overpolled in RI, OH and VT.

False, false, and false.

LOL

Polls didn't show RI, OH and VT much closer/a big win for Obama?

Ok!

Research 2000 greatly underestimated Obama in VT.

As for PA, Obama should downplay it's importance. Clinton has the entire machine behind her there. He won't win it (barring a miracle).

Downplay PA and make...what...Wyoming into a huge deal? Sorry but who looks silly then?

[Reaganfan]

Facts are facts. Hillary is back...Obama is in a rut.

[Lief]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Uh, no. Most pollsters tend to UNDERRATE him. The only states he overpolled in were California and New Hampshire. Conversely look at Wisconsin, Virginia, Maryland, Missouri...

He also overpolled in RI, OH and VT.

False, false, and false.

LOL

Polls didn't show RI, OH and VT much closer/a big win for Obama?

Ok!

The one real poll from Rhode Island showed Clinton up 15, over a week before the primary. She ended up winning by 18 points.

Ohio polls were pretty much right on, in some cases even more pro-Clinton that the state eventually was, with the one outlier being Zogby.

The one good poll in Vermont (Rasmussen) gave Obama a 24 point lead, 10 days before the primary. Obama ended up winning by 22 points.

What were you saying again?

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Facts are facts. Hillary is back...Obama is in a rut.

Yep that fairly large, unchanged delegate lead is clearly a sign that he is in a bad way.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Downplay PA and make...what...Wyoming into a huge deal? Sorry but who looks silly then?

Frankly it wouldn't surprise me if Obama won more net delegates out of Wyoming than Hillary does out of Pennsylvania.

Before you laugh at that: Go take a look at the delegate numbers in Idaho and New Jersey.

[Gustaf]

Downplay PA and make...what...Wyoming into a huge deal? Sorry but who looks silly then?

Frankly it wouldn't surprise me if Obama won more net delegates out of Wyoming than Hillary does out of Pennsylvania.

Before you laugh at that: Go take a look at the delegate numbers in Idaho and New Jersey.

I know what you're saying and there is some truth to it, but New Jersey was won by 6%, right? Pennsylvania could be much larger.

[Keystone Phil]

The one real poll from Rhode Island showed Clinton up 15, over a week before the primary. She ended up winning by 18 points.

I could have sworn there was a lot of hype about RI possibly being very close after a poll was released. I'm probably mistaken.

Ohio polls were pretty much right on, in some cases even more pro-Clinton that the state eventually was, with the one outlier being Zogby.

There weren't several polls showing Obama within single digits?

The one good poll in Vermont (Rasmussen) gave Obama a 24 point lead, 10 days before the primary. Obama ended up winning by 22 points.

Right...Rasmussen was the good poll. Not like it's being trashed by Obama supporters elsewhere or anything...

[Verily]

The one real poll from Rhode Island showed Clinton up 15, over a week before the primary. She ended up winning by 18 points.

I could have sworn there was a lot of hype about RI possibly being very close after a poll was released. I'm probably mistaken.

The initial exit poll had it very surprisingly close.

[Gustaf]

The one real poll from Rhode Island showed Clinton up 15, over a week before the primary. She ended up winning by 18 points.

I could have sworn there was a lot of hype about RI possibly being very close after a poll was released. I'm probably mistaken.

The initial exit poll had it very surprisingly close.

Yeah. The polling did not show Obama leading or tieing, but they did create a feeling that he was having momentum and that Clinton was sinking fast. Then the exit polls confirmed that and made the eventual Clinton victory seem like more of a surprise than it should have been.

[So the Heroes Fall]

There weren't several polls showing Obama within single digits?

All quite a bit before the primary. It's possible he was that close then, but Hillary closed well. Impossible to say.

Right...Rasmussen was the good poll. Not like it's being trashed by Obama supporters elsewhere or anything...

The only other polls taken out of Vermont were ARG. So Rasmussen was the only somewhat credible pollster who polled Vermont at all.

[WalterMitty]

id be happy seeing this poll if the election was next week.

but it isnt.

it isnt until late april.   a lot can change.

i expect a very tough fight for pa.