There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
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  There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
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Author Topic: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls  (Read 6329 times)
Jens
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« on: March 07, 2008, 05:02:08 AM »

Greens Analyseinstitut:

Socialdemocrats: 22 %
Social Liberal Party: 5,1 %
Conservative: 9,9 %
Socialist People's Party: 19,5 %
Christian Democrats: 0,2 %
Danish People's Party: 14,8 %
Liberal Party (Venstre): 26,3 %
New Alliance: 0,4 %
Unity List: 1,8 %

The government still hold a majority but the opposition is gaining and SF is almost the same size as SD. That is wild Grin
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Michael Z
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2008, 05:11:07 AM »

That is interesting. Almost comparable to the rise of Die Linke in Germany, though obviously not to such a scale.

What were SF's numbers at the last election?
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Jens
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2008, 07:03:19 AM »

That is interesting. Almost comparable to the rise of Die Linke in Germany, though obviously not to such a scale.

What were SF's numbers at the last election?
13 %, up  from 6% in the 2005 election. The SF Chairman, Villy Søvndal is probably the most popular politician right now.

And Syriza too. In Finland the party is in down fall.
Remember that the Left Alliance in Finland mostly is the old communist party. SF is a combo of VAS and Vihr - We have no green party and the most extreme ex-commies are in UL.
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afleitch
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2008, 08:15:20 AM »

Our socialists (I can proudly say Scotland has an increasingly divergent party system Smiley ) bombed. Because they split and in fact they were rubbish 40 something ex Militant student political has beens.

The 'intellectual left' in Scotland is found within the Scottish Greens who, unfortunately fell back in 2007 to 4.0% and were punished by the list system which left us with just Patrick and Robin. The Greens themselves in Scotland are nationalist (which has a different meaning in Scotland as most of you should be aware) and socially libertarian. Despite the mathematical, more than electoral set back, they performed well locally and now hold 5 seats on Glasgow City Council (including one in the Gorbals) for example and 3 seats on Edinburgh City council. They have an urban and rural reach, but the SNP were too dominant in the rural areas to allow much progression.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2008, 09:38:43 AM »

The numbers of the European socialist left are interesting. Big gains in Denmark, Greece, and Germany.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2008, 01:01:19 PM »

The numbers of the European socialist left are interesting. Big gains in Denmark, Greece, and Germany.

And so are the hard right. I don't think that's a coincidence, since the main parties in many European countries have become more centrist recently.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2008, 01:03:29 PM »

The numbers of the European socialist left are interesting. Big gains in Denmark, Greece, and Germany.


Yet hard left parties have not done so well elsewhere. Need to be careful about pointing to supposed pan-european trends.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2008, 03:41:10 PM »

In ... Ireland  left parties have been increasing.

Nope. Not going by last year's general election anyway. Sad
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2008, 03:43:49 PM »

In ... Ireland  left parties have been increasing.

Nope. Not going by last year's general election anyway. Sad
Unless you take that term to include all parties with a left-of-center wing of some sort. For since the PDs lost, the balance must clearly have gained.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2008, 04:09:39 PM »

Sorry, I just looked at latest Angus Reid poll, and the percentage of Our Selves had increased to 8-9 %.

An Angus Reid monitored poll, it is actually a RedC poll specifically and one which I brought up here - which indeed indicates that SF actually fell 1 point since the last poll and are also 1 point beneath the final RedC poll that was carried out before the election.

In ... Ireland  left parties have been increasing.

Nope. Not going by last year's general election anyway. Sad
Unless you take that term to include all parties with a left-of-center wing of some sort. For since the PDs lost, the balance must clearly have gained.

Smiley An arguable point, though it doesn't necessarily hold. Would need to analyse a full list of those who lost and those who were new to see if such a shift is noticeable. Even within the PDs, yes they lost those undeniably on the right like McDowell, but they also lost the like of Fiona O'Malley (PD-Dún Laoghaire) who I'd have classified as someone of the left. And I actually doubt whether anyone in the PDs is to the right of new TD Leo Varadkar (FG-Dublin W).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2008, 04:18:49 PM »

You misunderstood me. I just claimed that all the FF, FG, Greens, Labour, SF have a left wing that actually is left of center (rather than just closer to the center than the other wing is), and taken together these parties gained, not that leftwingers themselves gained.
Hardly much of a point. Cheesy
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2008, 04:20:32 PM »

You misunderstood me. I just claimed that all the FF, FG, Greens, Labour, SF have a left wing that actually is left of center (rather than just closer to the center than the other wing is), and taken together these parties gained, not that leftwingers themselves gained.
Hardly much of a point. Cheesy

Ah, fair enough.
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2008, 05:22:04 PM »

Ok, GUE parties
                 NOW            2009
France            3                   3           
ÙK                  1                   1
Ireland           1                   1
Denmark         1                   (2)         Probably  join greens
Netherlands    2                   3         
Greek              4                   7         
Germany         7                  14         
Finland            1                    1
Sweden           2                   1
Cyprus             2                    2
Spain                1                   2         
Portugal           3                    3
Czech               6                    3
Italy                 7                    4         
                       41                   45

It will be interesting to see if the PCF can keep its seats; it probably will because of the constituencies used.

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Jens
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2008, 06:29:05 PM »

Ok, GUE parties
                 NOW            2009
France            3                   3           
ÙK                  1                   1
Ireland           1                   1
Denmark         1                   (2)         Probably  join greens
Netherlands    2                   3         
Greek              4                   7         
Germany         7                  14         
Finland            1                    1
Sweden           2                   1
Cyprus             2                    2
Spain                1                   2         
Portugal           3                    3
Czech               6                    3
Italy                 7                    4         
                       41                   45
Will join the Greens. Our current MEP is standing for reelection and she most certainly will not be in a group with unreformed commies.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2008, 07:42:53 PM »

Sorry, however, SF will keep their two seats in EP.

They should hold their Northern Ireland seat certainly.

I think, at this point, that they'll lose their Dublin seat. Dublin is being reduced to a 3-seater next time, and SF just won't get a high enough 1st preference share or more importantly, enough transfers to be genuinely competitive. If the result in Dublin is anything other than 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab then it will be somewhat surprising.

Maybe, just maybe, they can gain 1 in the North-West constituency. But it's too early to say - depends on whether or not Harkin runs for re-election and who else decides to run. (There's certainly 1 FF; 1 FG - the other seat could go in a number of directions).

As it stands, they'll certainly take 1 and are competitive for another, but I certainly don't think that anything so definitive as your statement can be made.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2008, 07:48:06 PM »

Quote
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Or as loud or as annoying.

Yet another reason not to vote FG.

At this point I would have to say that FG is to the right of FF... sadly. Many of the gains they made last time seem to come from old style small town business\agrihacks or the unbearably smug from posh snobby suburbs like Castleknock (Vardarkar) or D4 (Creighton).

As for the Left, We have one? Joe Higgins lost his seat.. SF are doing they're "we're really radical while we are also FF lite" show.. The Greens... I would finish this sentence but it would involve alot of laughing.

As Jas said, Sinn Fein will almost certainly lose their Dublin EU seat unless there is a huge anti-government swing at the next EU election. (Hard to see FG doing badly and Labour always seem to get a good bit for vote out for things like this...)
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Jens
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« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2008, 05:25:25 AM »

Quote
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Or as loud or as annoying.

Yet another reason not to vote FG.

At this point I would have to say that FG is to the right of FF... sadly. Many of the gains they made last time seem to come from old style small town business\agrihacks or the unbearably smug from posh snobby suburbs like Castleknock (Vardarkar) or D4 (Creighton).

As for the Left, We have one? Joe Higgins lost his seat.. SF are doing they're "we're really radical while we are also FF lite" show.. The Greens... I would finish this sentence but it would involve alot of laughing.

As Jas said, Sinn Fein will almost certainly lose their Dublin EU seat unless there is a huge anti-government swing at the next EU election. (Hard to see FG doing badly and Labour always seem to get a good bit for vote out for things like this...)
And yet again the darn Irish managed to turn a discussion into a speech about their strange political system Wink
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2008, 05:44:50 AM »

Quote
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Or as loud or as annoying.

Yet another reason not to vote FG.

At this point I would have to say that FG is to the right of FF... sadly. Many of the gains they made last time seem to come from old style small town businessagrihacks or the unbearably smug from posh snobby suburbs like Castleknock (Vardarkar) or D4 (Creighton).

As for the Left, We have one? Joe Higgins lost his seat.. SF are doing they're "we're really radical while we are also FF lite" show.. The Greens... I would finish this sentence but it would involve alot of laughing.

As Jas said, Sinn Fein will almost certainly lose their Dublin EU seat unless there is a huge anti-government swing at the next EU election. (Hard to see FG doing badly and Labour always seem to get a good bit for vote out for things like this...)
And yet again the darn Irish managed to turn a discussion into a speech about their strange political system Wink

Sorry for the hi-jack! But on behalf of the Irish delegation, I'm going to pass the buck and blame our Finnish colleague for starting it. Tongue
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2008, 06:30:08 AM »

Yeah I just needed to get anti-FG rant in. Probably should be moved to General Discussion.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #19 on: March 09, 2008, 06:42:26 PM »

The Swedish left has been in free-fall for some time. I expect the Greens to over-take them in the next general.
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Jens
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« Reply #20 on: March 11, 2008, 06:36:12 AM »

And the fun continues. SF is now larger that SD (at least in the polls Grin )

Zapero for Metroexpress: (difference from February poll in () )

Socialdemocrats: 20,2 % (-4,3) 37 M (-8)
Social Liberal Party: 5,1 % (-0,3) 9 M (0)
Conservative: 10 % (-0,1) 18 M (0)
Socialist People's Party: 20,9 % (+5,5) 38 M (+15)
Christian Democrats: 0,1 % (-0,5) 0 M
Danish People's Party: 16,2 % (+1,5) 29 M (+4)
Liberal Party (Venstre): 24,6 % (-1,7) 44 M (-2)
New Alliance: 1,2 % (-0,4) 0 M (-5)
Unity List: 1,7 % (+0.4) 0 M (-4) (this might be misleading since the UL votes is extremely concentrated in Copenhagen and Aarhus, which might enable them to win a direct mandate i Cph and thus gain 2 additional mandates, and reducing the VOK majority to 90 - A slight move of only 0,3 %-point reduces it to 89.)

ABFØ: 47,9%
VOK: 50,8%

Now that would be a strange election
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« Reply #21 on: March 11, 2008, 07:46:46 AM »

Haha.
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Jens
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« Reply #22 on: March 16, 2008, 05:44:50 PM »

It looks like the good polings for SF wasn't just a fluke.

Catinét Reseach (measured 1052 persons between March 10th and 15th)

A: Socialdemocrats: 21 % 38 M (-7)
B: Social Liberal Party: 4,1 % 7 M (-2)
C: Conservative: 9,1 % 16 M (-2)
F: Socialist People's Party: 20,8 % 37 M (+14)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,9 % 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 13,6 % 24 M (-1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 27,2 % 49 M (+3)
Y: New Alliance: 1,2 % 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,1 % 4 M

ABFØ: 86 mandates
VCO: 89 mandates

The government's majority is a razor thin as it can be (so an election isn't coming soon Wink ) 48 % to 49,9% (it would take a miracle for NA to bounce back)
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Hashemite
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« Reply #23 on: March 16, 2008, 06:16:26 PM »

Lol New Alliance
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Jens
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« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2008, 04:03:13 PM »

Time to have some polls fun

Two polls done in the same period of time:

First:
Gallup for Berlingske Tidende (conservative newspaper)

A: Socialdemocrats: 23,9% 43 M (-2)
B: Social Liberal Party: 5,1% 9 M
C: Conservative: 10,6% 19 M (+1)
F: Socialist People's Party: 17,2% 31 M (+8)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,4% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 14,5% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 26,0% 47 (+1)
Y: Liberal Alliance (new name for NA): 0,6% 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 1,7% 0 M (-4)

Second:

Megafon for TV 2 (largest television channel)

A: Socialdemocrats: 25,1% 44 M (-1)
B: Social Liberal Party: 5,9% 11 M (+2)
C: Conservative: 9,9% 18 M
F: Socialist People's Party: 17,8% 31 M (+8)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,0% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 13,9% 24 M (-1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 24,7% 43 (-3)
Y: Liberal Alliance (new name for NA): 0,5% 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,0% 4 M

Gallup polled 1587 persons between the 21th and 28th of August. Megafon polled 1008 persons between the 25th and 28th of August.

Difference:
Gallup: Government and support (VC + O): 92 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 83 M
Megafon: Government and support (VC + O): 85 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 90 M
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