There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls

[Gustaf]

The Swedish left has been in free-fall for some time. I expect the Greens to over-take them in the next general.

[Jens]

And the fun continues. SF is now larger that SD (at least in the polls )

Zapero for Metroexpress: (difference from February poll in () )

Socialdemocrats: 20,2 % (-4,3) 37 M (-8)
Social Liberal Party: 5,1 % (-0,3) 9 M (0)
Conservative: 10 % (-0,1) 18 M (0)
Socialist People's Party: 20,9 % (+5,5) 38 M (+15)
Christian Democrats: 0,1 % (-0,5) 0 M
Danish People's Party: 16,2 % (+1,5) 29 M (+4)
Liberal Party (Venstre): 24,6 % (-1,7) 44 M (-2)
New Alliance: 1,2 % (-0,4) 0 M (-5)
Unity List: 1,7 % (+0.4) 0 M (-4) (this might be misleading since the UL votes is extremely concentrated in Copenhagen and Aarhus, which might enable them to win a direct mandate i Cph and thus gain 2 additional mandates, and reducing the VOK majority to 90 - A slight move of only 0,3 %-point reduces it to 89.)

ABFØ: 47,9%
VOK: 50,8%

Now that would be a strange election

[Hashemite]

Haha.

[Jens]

It looks like the good polings for SF wasn't just a fluke.

Catinét Reseach (measured 1052 persons between March 10th and 15th)

A: Socialdemocrats: 21 % 38 M (-7)
B: Social Liberal Party: 4,1 % 7 M (-2)
C: Conservative: 9,1 % 16 M (-2)
F: Socialist People's Party: 20,8 % 37 M (+14)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,9 % 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 13,6 % 24 M (-1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 27,2 % 49 M (+3)
Y: New Alliance: 1,2 % 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,1 % 4 M

ABFØ: 86 mandates
VCO: 89 mandates

The government's majority is a razor thin as it can be (so an election isn't coming soon ) 48 % to 49,9% (it would take a miracle for NA to bounce back)

[Hashemite]

Lol New Alliance

[Jens]

Time to have some polls fun

Two polls done in the same period of time:

First:
Gallup for Berlingske Tidende (conservative newspaper)

A: Socialdemocrats: 23,9% 43 M (-2)
B: Social Liberal Party: 5,1% 9 M
C: Conservative: 10,6% 19 M (+1)
F: Socialist People's Party: 17,2% 31 M (+8)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,4% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 14,5% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 26,0% 47 (+1)
Y: Liberal Alliance (new name for NA): 0,6% 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 1,7% 0 M (-4)

Second:

Megafon for TV 2 (largest television channel)

A: Socialdemocrats: 25,1% 44 M (-1)
B: Social Liberal Party: 5,9% 11 M (+2)
C: Conservative: 9,9% 18 M
F: Socialist People's Party: 17,8% 31 M (+8)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,0% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 13,9% 24 M (-1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 24,7% 43 (-3)
Y: Liberal Alliance (new name for NA): 0,5% 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,0% 4 M

Gallup polled 1587 persons between the 21th and 28th of August. Megafon polled 1008 persons between the 25th and 28th of August.

Difference:
Gallup: Government and support (VC + O): 92 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 83 M
Megafon: Government and support (VC + O): 85 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 90 M

[Hashemite]

What happened with the New Alliance?

[Jens]

What happened with the New Alliance?

They've been toast all year. 3 out of 5 MPs left the party (1 to Venstre, 1 to Socdems, 1 independent). Last week they changed name to Liberal Alliance and are trying to brand them self as a libetarian party

[Dan the Roman]

Doesn't the Danish People's Party tend to poll below what it gets? I remember it polling in the 10-11 range in 2007 and then getting 13.5%.

[Jens]

Doesn't the Danish People's Party tend to poll below what it gets? I remember it polling in the 10-11 range in 2007 and then getting 13.5%.

Sort of. In 2001 DF polled well below its final result, but both 2005 and 2007 wasn't that far from the result. Socialist People's Party also polled below in 2007, but over in 2005. There is some thruth to that many people fail to admit that they vote DF when being polled. One factor in 2007 was an extremely powerfull performance by DF's leader Pia Kjærsgaard in the final party leaders debate (an equally lousy performance by New Alliance's leader, Naser Khader, probably cost the party 1 to 2 %-points)

[Jens]

Yet another poll

Capacent Epinion for DR (Danish BBC)

A: Socialdemocrats: 23,8% 42 M (-3)
B: Social Liberal Party: 5,0% 9 M
C: Conservative: 10,2% 18 M
F: Socialist People's Party: 18,8% 33 M (+10)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,2% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 14,7% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 23,6% 42 (-4)
Y: Liberal Alliance (new name for NA): 0,5% 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,8% 5 M (+1)
Government and support (VC + O): 86 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 89 M

Looks like the government's majority is gone.

[frenger]

This would matter if the elections hadn't just been last year.

[Jens]

This would matter if the elections hadn't just been last year.

We don't have any lower limit between elections. The government has a razor thin majority and lots of trouble with DF. The bad polls also puts the government under presure.

[Dan the Roman]

Are these polls actually much worse than the result last time? It seems that the Conservatives are doing the same, DF a bit better, Venstre a bit worse.

[Jens]

Are these polls actually much worse than the result last time? It seems that the Conservatives are doing the same, DF a bit better, Venstre a bit worse.

they are not that bad, but VCO only managed the smallest possible majority (90 not counting Liberal Alliance's 5) at the last election and only because a Faeroe Island MP supported them. The more important thing is the opposition's improvement. After last election they had 81 mandates (currently 82).  In this poll they have a majority (89 in Denmark. 91-92 with the North Atlantic mandates).  It's only 7-8 mandates that have moved, but that is enough to cause a change of government if an election were helt today.

[Jens]

Poll fun from Denmark. The government is under pressure in the polls and the Socialists keeps their strong position:


Gallup for Berlingske Tidende (conservative newspaper) 22th February 2009

A: Socialdemocrats: 25,6% 45 M (-)
B: Social Liberal Party: 3,7% 7 M (-2)
C: Conservative: 11,9% 21 M (+3)
F: Socialist People's Party: 19,3% 34 M (+11)
I: Liberal Alliance: 0,4% 0 M (-5)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,5% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 13,2% 23 M (-2)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 23,3% 41 (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,0% 4 M (-)
Government and support (VC + O): 85 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 90 M

Another poll

Rambøll for Jyllandsposten (liberal newspaper) 27th February 2009

A: Socialdemocrats: 27,5% 50 M ()
B: Social Liberal Party: 4,6% 8 M (-1)
C: Conservative: 10,3% 19 M (+1)
F: Socialist People's Party: 18,4% 33 M (+10)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,5% 0 M
I: Liberal Alliance: 0,4% 0 M (-5)
O: Danish People's Party: 14,6% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 21,5% 39 (-7)
Ø: Unity List: 1,9% 0 M (-4)
Government and support (VC + O): 84 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 91 M

And the latest Liberal Alliance fun. The party founder, Naser Khader left the party last month and became a independent MP - because he felt the party was becoming too libertarian - hilarious

[Jens]

Brand new poll

Greens for Børsen (business newspaper) 5th of March 2009
A: Socialdemocrats: 24,7% 45 M (-)
B: Social Liberal Party: 4,0% 7 M (-2)
C: Conservative: 10,5% 19 M (+1)
F: Socialist People's Party: 21,7% 39 M (+16)
I: Liberal Alliance: 0,2% 0 M (-5)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,5% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 14,6% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 21,8% 39 (-7)
Ø: Unity List: 1,9% 0 M (-4)
Government and support (VC + O): 84 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 91 M

Even with Unity List just missing the threshold the Socialdemocrats, Socialist People's Party and Social Liberals would have a solid majority (93-94 with the North Atlantic mandates). Venstre is really being punished for their resent tax reform.
There is a chance that the government will get quite a beating in the coming EU-elections in June and local elections in November.

[Hashemite]

The New Alliance is entertaining.

[Jens]

News - Social Demcrats and Socialist People's Party is opting for close coorporation:

http://politiken.dk/newsinenglish/article777587.ece

The Social Democrats and Socialist People’s Party announce their formal partnership.

After a lengthy engagement, the opposition Social Democratic and Socialist People’s parties have formally announced a partnership designed to take them into coalition government after the next election.

“This is a big and happy day for the Social Democrats and the Socialist People’s Party , a day that will change Danish politics,” Social Democratic Leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt told the assembled Copenhagen media in announcing the partnership.

“For generations the Social Democrats have been a governing party. That responsibility and honour is something we want to share with the Socialist People’s Party after the next election,” says Thorning-Schmidt, who is the two parties’ candidate for prime minister.

Change
“There is a need for a movement that can change Denmark. Now there are clear lines in Danish politics. Do people want the Liberal-Conservative-Danish People’s Party government of the past eight years? Or do they want change?” says Socialist People’s Party Leader Villy Søvndal.

The partnership does not appear to preclude other parties joining a Social Democratic-led government. Thorning-Schmidt suggests that the Social Liberal Party could also be a candidate to join a government, although cardinal issues for the Social Democrats and Socialist People’s Party are pre-determined platforms on immigration and tax.

“But there are lots of other policy areas that a government has to address, and here the Social Liberals would have lots of influence,” Thorning Schmidt says.

“If the Social Liberals join a government, they should of course have influence,” she says.

[Vasall des Midas]

So no more tolerations?

[Jens]

So no more tolerations?

What do you mean?

[Californian Tony]

Greens Analyseinstitut:

Socialdemocrats: 22 %
Social Liberal Party: 5,1 %
Conservative: 9,9 %
Socialist People's Party: 19,5 %
Christian Democrats: 0,2 %
Danish People's Party: 14,8 %
Liberal Party (Venstre): 26,3 %
New Alliance: 0,4 %
Unity List: 1,8 %

The government still hold a majority but the opposition is gaining and SF is almost the same size as SD. That is wild

Not a so bad news...

[Jens]

Greens Analyseinstitut:

Socialdemocrats: 22 %
Social Liberal Party: 5,1 %
Conservative: 9,9 %
Socialist People's Party: 19,5 %
Christian Democrats: 0,2 %
Danish People's Party: 14,8 %
Liberal Party (Venstre): 26,3 %
New Alliance: 0,4 %
Unity List: 1,8 %

The government still hold a majority but the opposition is gaining and SF is almost the same size as SD. That is wild

Not a so bad news...

And even better - SF hasn't dropped in the polls

[Vasall des Midas]

So no more tolerations?

What do you mean?

Didn't you use to support Social Democratic governments from the outside?

[Jens]

So no more tolerations?

What do you mean?

Didn't you use to support Social Democratic governments from the outside?

Not really - Historically the S-governments or SR-governments that hasn't been majority governments, has relied more on support from the centre parties or the Conservatives and Venstre. The last years of Nyrup (1999-2001), the short lived J.O. Krag (1966-1967) and first Anker Jørgensen governments (1972-1973) where the only times where S really relied on and cooperated with SF