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Author Topic: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls  (Read 5315 times)
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« Reply #25 on: September 01, 2008, 04:09:43 pm »
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What happened with the New Alliance?
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« Reply #26 on: September 01, 2008, 05:44:41 pm »
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What happened with the New Alliance?
They've been toast all year. 3 out of 5 MPs left the party (1 to Venstre, 1 to Socdems, 1 independent). Last week they changed name to Liberal Alliance and are trying to brand them self as a libetarian party
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« Reply #27 on: September 01, 2008, 09:01:24 pm »
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Doesn't the Danish People's Party tend to poll below what it gets? I remember it polling in the 10-11 range in 2007 and then getting 13.5%.
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« Reply #28 on: September 02, 2008, 06:56:13 am »
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Doesn't the Danish People's Party tend to poll below what it gets? I remember it polling in the 10-11 range in 2007 and then getting 13.5%.
Sort of. In 2001 DF polled well below its final result, but both 2005 and 2007 wasn't that far from the result. Socialist People's Party also polled below in 2007, but over in 2005. There is some thruth to that many people fail to admit that they vote DF when being polled. One factor in 2007 was an extremely powerfull performance by DF's leader Pia Kjærsgaard in the final party leaders debate (an equally lousy performance by New Alliance's leader, Naser Khader, probably cost the party 1 to 2 %-points)
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« Reply #29 on: September 05, 2008, 03:04:30 pm »
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Yet another poll

Capacent Epinion for DR (Danish BBC)

A: Socialdemocrats: 23,8% 42 M (-3)
B: Social Liberal Party: 5,0% 9 M
C: Conservative: 10,2% 18 M
F: Socialist People's Party: 18,8% 33 M (+10)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,2% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 14,7% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 23,6% 42 (-4)
Y: Liberal Alliance (new name for NA): 0,5% 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,8% 5 M (+1)
Government and support (VC + O): 86 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 89 M

Looks like the government's majority is gone.Smiley
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« Reply #30 on: September 05, 2008, 03:20:51 pm »
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This would matter if the elections hadn't just been last year.
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« Reply #31 on: September 05, 2008, 03:25:45 pm »
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This would matter if the elections hadn't just been last year.
We don't have any lower limit between elections. The government has a razor thin majority and lots of trouble with DF. The bad polls also puts the government under presure.
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« Reply #32 on: September 06, 2008, 12:25:14 am »
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Are these polls actually much worse than the result last time? It seems that the Conservatives are doing the same, DF a bit better, Venstre a bit worse.
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« Reply #33 on: September 06, 2008, 03:07:29 am »
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Are these polls actually much worse than the result last time? It seems that the Conservatives are doing the same, DF a bit better, Venstre a bit worse.
they are not that bad, but VCO only managed the smallest possible majority (90 not counting Liberal Alliance's 5) at the last election and only because a Faeroe Island MP supported them. The more important thing is the opposition's improvement. After last election they had 81 mandates (currently 82).  In this poll they have a majority (89 in Denmark. 91-92 with the North Atlantic mandates).  It's only 7-8 mandates that have moved, but that is enough to cause a change of government if an election were helt today.
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« Reply #34 on: March 03, 2009, 06:45:30 pm »
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Poll fun from Denmark. The government is under pressure in the polls and the Socialists keeps their strong position:


Gallup for Berlingske Tidende (conservative newspaper) 22th February 2009

A: Socialdemocrats: 25,6% 45 M (-)
B: Social Liberal Party: 3,7% 7 M (-2)
C: Conservative: 11,9% 21 M (+3)
F: Socialist People's Party: 19,3% 34 M (+11)
I: Liberal Alliance: 0,4% 0 M (-5)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,5% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 13,2% 23 M (-2)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 23,3% 41 (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,0% 4 M (-)
Government and support (VC + O): 85 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 90 M

Another poll

Rambøll for Jyllandsposten (liberal newspaper) 27th February 2009

A: Socialdemocrats: 27,5% 50 M ()
B: Social Liberal Party: 4,6% 8 M (-1)
C: Conservative: 10,3% 19 M (+1)
F: Socialist People's Party: 18,4% 33 M (+10)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,5% 0 M
I: Liberal Alliance: 0,4% 0 M (-5)
O: Danish People's Party: 14,6% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 21,5% 39 (-7)
Ø: Unity List: 1,9% 0 M (-4)
Government and support (VC + O): 84 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 91 M

And the latest Liberal Alliance fun. The party founder, Naser Khader left the party last month and became a independent MP - because he felt the party was becoming too libertarian - hilarious Smiley
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« Reply #35 on: March 06, 2009, 08:27:33 am »
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Brand new poll

Greens for Børsen (business newspaper) 5th of March 2009
A: Socialdemocrats: 24,7% 45 M (-)
B: Social Liberal Party: 4,0% 7 M (-2)
C: Conservative: 10,5% 19 M (+1)
F: Socialist People's Party: 21,7% 39 M (+16)
I: Liberal Alliance: 0,2% 0 M (-5)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,5% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 14,6% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 21,8% 39 (-7)
Ø: Unity List: 1,9% 0 M (-4)
Government and support (VC + O): 84 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 91 M

Even with Unity List just missing the threshold the Socialdemocrats, Socialist People's Party and Social Liberals would have a solid majority (93-94 with the North Atlantic mandates). Venstre is really being punished for their resent tax reform.
There is a chance that the government will get quite a beating in the coming EU-elections in June and local elections in November.
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« Reply #36 on: March 06, 2009, 06:13:55 pm »
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The New Alliance is entertaining.
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« Reply #37 on: August 30, 2009, 06:22:50 am »
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News - Social Demcrats and Socialist People's Party is opting for close coorporation:

http://politiken.dk/newsinenglish/article777587.ece

The Social Democrats and Socialist People’s Party announce their formal partnership.

After a lengthy engagement, the opposition Social Democratic and Socialist People’s parties have formally announced a partnership designed to take them into coalition government after the next election.

“This is a big and happy day for the Social Democrats and the Socialist People’s Party , a day that will change Danish politics,” Social Democratic Leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt told the assembled Copenhagen media in announcing the partnership.

“For generations the Social Democrats have been a governing party. That responsibility and honour is something we want to share with the Socialist People’s Party after the next election,” says Thorning-Schmidt, who is the two parties’ candidate for prime minister.

Change
“There is a need for a movement that can change Denmark. Now there are clear lines in Danish politics. Do people want the Liberal-Conservative-Danish People’s Party government of the past eight years? Or do they want change?” says Socialist People’s Party Leader Villy Søvndal.

The partnership does not appear to preclude other parties joining a Social Democratic-led government. Thorning-Schmidt suggests that the Social Liberal Party could also be a candidate to join a government, although cardinal issues for the Social Democrats and Socialist People’s Party are pre-determined platforms on immigration and tax.

“But there are lots of other policy areas that a government has to address, and here the Social Liberals would have lots of influence,” Thorning Schmidt says.

“If the Social Liberals join a government, they should of course have influence,” she says.
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« Reply #38 on: August 30, 2009, 06:27:06 am »
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So no more tolerations?
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« Reply #39 on: August 30, 2009, 06:28:18 am »
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So no more tolerations?
What do you mean?
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« Reply #40 on: August 30, 2009, 06:57:13 am »
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Greens Analyseinstitut:

Socialdemocrats: 22 %
Social Liberal Party: 5,1 %
Conservative: 9,9 %
Socialist People's Party: 19,5 %
Christian Democrats: 0,2 %
Danish People's Party: 14,8 %
Liberal Party (Venstre): 26,3 %
New Alliance: 0,4 %
Unity List: 1,8 %

The government still hold a majority but the opposition is gaining and SF is almost the same size as SD. That is wild Grin

Not a so bad news... Tongue
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« Reply #41 on: August 30, 2009, 06:58:34 am »
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Greens Analyseinstitut:

Socialdemocrats: 22 %
Social Liberal Party: 5,1 %
Conservative: 9,9 %
Socialist People's Party: 19,5 %
Christian Democrats: 0,2 %
Danish People's Party: 14,8 %
Liberal Party (Venstre): 26,3 %
New Alliance: 0,4 %
Unity List: 1,8 %

The government still hold a majority but the opposition is gaining and SF is almost the same size as SD. That is wild Grin

Not a so bad news... Tongue
And even better - SF hasn't dropped in the polls Cheesy
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« Reply #42 on: August 30, 2009, 07:03:04 am »
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So no more tolerations?
What do you mean?
Didn't you use to support Social Democratic governments from the outside?
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« Reply #43 on: August 30, 2009, 07:07:59 am »
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So no more tolerations?
What do you mean?
Didn't you use to support Social Democratic governments from the outside?
Not really - Historically the S-governments or SR-governments that hasn't been majority governments, has relied more on support from the centre parties or the Conservatives and Venstre. The last years of Nyrup (1999-2001), the short lived J.O. Krag (1966-1967) and first Anker Jørgensen governments (1972-1973) where the only times where S really relied on and cooperated with SF
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« Reply #44 on: June 12, 2010, 05:04:47 pm »
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Been a while since I posted new polls and a lot has changed. Some weeks ago the government and Danish People's Party launched the "Recovery Plan" a plan to improve the economy and remove the current financial deficit. The plan included a significant cut in several social benefits including unemployment benefit cut from 4 to 2 years (the so called dagpenge (day money) a selfinsurance system run by the unions) a limit on children benefits at 35.000 kr per year (bacially removing any childrens benefits for child number 3+) and heavily limiting the deductability of union fees. The plan has turned out to be quite unpopular and will affect voters who voted Danish People's Party because they saw DF as the party that defended the poor (white). The result is these latest polls:

From Børsen (the major business newspaper)

A Social Democrats: 30,3 % 53 M (+8)
B Social Liberals: 4,8 % 8 M (-1)
C Conservative People's Party: 7,3 % 13 M (-5)
F Socialist People's Party: 19,4 % 34 M (+11)
I Liberal Alliance: 3,1 % 6 M (+1)
K Christian Democrats: 0,3 % 0
O Danish People's Party: 10,7 % 19 M (-6)
V Liberal Party (Venstre): 21,4 % 37 M (-10)
Ø Unity List: 2,7 % 5 M (+1)

http://img.borsen.dk/img/cms/cmsmedia/978_content_2_7800.pdf

Government and DF (VCO) 69 M - a loss of 20! mandates
Opposition (ABFØ) 100 M!! - The left wing parties (AFØ) would hold a solid majority of 92 mandates (plus 3 North Atlantic for a total of 95 mandates of 179)
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