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Author Topic: MI-Rasmussen: In case of revote, Clinton and Obama tied at 41%  (Read 1692 times)
Math
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« on: March 07, 2008, 11:35:31 am »
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Clinton: 41%
Obama: 41%

This telephone survey of 575 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on March 6, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2008, 11:47:11 am »
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Makes sense to me.  A revote would be fun b/c Michigan primaries are open.
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2008, 11:50:11 am »
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January 15:

Clinton 55.23% (14 districts) / Uncommitted 40.07% (1 district: 14) / Other 4.70%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2008, 12:00:13 pm »
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January 15:

Clinton 55.23% (14 districts) / Uncommitted 40.07% (1 district: 14) / Other 4.70%

Those numbers are really useless in case of a revote.  Unlike Florida.
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2008, 12:03:02 pm »
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January 15:

Clinton 55.23% (14 districts) / Uncommitted 40.07% (1 district: 14) / Other 4.70%

Those numbers are really useless in case of a revote.  Unlike Florida.
Not really. They're Clinton's realistic ceiling, although I've no idea how low she could go... probably not all the way to 15 points down, though.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2008, 12:12:17 pm »
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January 15:

Clinton 55.23% (14 districts) / Uncommitted 40.07% (1 district: 14) / Other 4.70%

Those numbers are really useless in case of a revote.  Unlike Florida.
Not really. They're Clinton's realistic ceiling, although I've no idea how low she could go... probably not all the way to 15 points down, though.

Well, yea I agree with that.  I was really referring to the final result, not ceilings.  Smiley  Though it could be that result, realistically.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2008, 04:57:09 pm »
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Makes sense to me.  A revote would be fun b/c Michigan primaries are open.

That depends.  I believe the current talk is for a closed primary.
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2008, 05:25:14 pm »
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If it's a primary, Obama probably wins narrowly.

If it's a caucus, Obama will destroy her.
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2008, 05:44:16 pm »
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I wonder how the Arab-American vote will split.
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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2008, 06:50:50 pm »
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I wonder how the Arab-American vote will split.

Probably for Obama... although that would be a suggestive generalization.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2008, 07:02:40 pm »
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Makes sense to me.  A revote would be fun b/c Michigan primaries are open.

That depends.  I believe the current talk is for a closed primary.

How can you have a close primary in a state with no party registration? 

Unless you're going to limit it to only those people who voted in the Democratic primary the first time around.  Tongue
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Padfoot
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2008, 11:33:47 pm »
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Makes sense to me.  A revote would be fun b/c Michigan primaries are open.

That depends.  I believe the current talk is for a closed primary.

How can you have a close primary in a state with no party registration? 

Unless you're going to limit it to only those people who voted in the Democratic primary the first time around.  Tongue

I'm not sure.  That was just something I had read recently (can't remember where) but obviously it wouldn't work very well if there isn't any party registration.
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« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2008, 02:04:45 pm »
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Could you imagine Republican voters getting yet another vote? That would be awesome. I wonder if we'd see a noticable GOP turnout for Hillary just to screw things up.
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« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2008, 06:27:54 pm »
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Unless you're going to limit it to only those people who voted in the Democratic primary the first time around.  Tongue

Even that wouldn't be possible if Michigan does its primaries like Minnesota does, in which case there's no way of knowing in which primary a voter voted in.
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« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2008, 07:15:08 pm »
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Clinton would likely sweep the U.P and Northern L.P (Maybe with the exception of Marquette and the Grand Traverse area. Obama would also do well in the Metro Detroit area (winning Wayne and Oakland). Also the Grand Rapids area would go for him. The industrial towns bordering Ohio and the rural ones bordering Indiana would go for Clinton. The election would come down to the I-75 corridor. Bay City, Saginaw and Flint. Obama would carry the cities (cept Bay city) but he would need to win at least Genesse overall.
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« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2008, 08:13:27 pm »
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Going by what happened in Emmett County, he must have quite a following there, too.
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« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2008, 08:19:09 pm »
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Going by what happened in Emmett County, he must have quite a following there, too.

Yeah, that's the traverse area I was talking about.
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« Reply #17 on: March 09, 2008, 04:51:16 am »
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Going by what happened in Emmett County, he must have quite a following there, too.

Yeah, that's the traverse area I was talking about.

So are you prepared to predict who you think would win?  It's going to be close either way isn't it?
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« Reply #18 on: March 09, 2008, 08:28:10 pm »
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Going by what happened in Emmett County, he must have quite a following there, too.

Yeah, that's the traverse area I was talking about.

So are you prepared to predict who you think would win?  It's going to be close either way isn't it?

I'm not bold enough to predict a winner. Though I can't see either getting below 47% or above 52%.
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