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Author Topic: MS PrimD: Insider Advantage: Obama ahead of Clinton by 6%  (Read 891 times)
Math
math
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« on: March 07, 2008, 01:40:50 pm »
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Obama: 46%
Clinton: 40%
Undecided 14%

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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2008, 01:54:15 pm »
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looking at the crosstabs shows us that Obama is given just 67% of blacks and 17% of whites.  the latter sounds about right but the former will be closer to 85%.  and I expect the ratio of blacks to whites would be greater than this poll shows, although the open primary / GOP race concluded factor may encourage more Republicans to vote, who are white.
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"If the Constitution means anything, it surely means that the president does not have unreviewable authority to summarily execute any American whom he concludes is an enemy of the state"

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Lief
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2008, 02:12:17 pm »
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Obama usually outperforms the polls dramatically in Deep Southern states with large black populations (see South Carolina and Alabama).
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2008, 03:31:17 pm »
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Quote from: Lt. Gov. Lief on March 07, 2008, 02:12:17 pm
Obama usually outperforms the polls dramatically in Deep Southern states with large black populations (see South Carolina and Alabama).

At least, he outperforms what IA predicts.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2008, 05:23:24 pm »
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This poll is trash. There is no way Obama wins MS by less than 15%.
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Harry
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2008, 05:25:46 pm »
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Quote from: Eraserhead on March 07, 2008, 05:23:24 pm
The poll shows my candidate not having as high of a % as I think he should have, so it must be trash.




I agree that Obama will win, but how could we possibly predict the margin?
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Aizen
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2008, 05:28:53 pm »
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Reminds me of Alabama polls. Probably about 60% for Obama, maybe higher
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2008, 05:34:17 pm »
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Quote from: Harry the Decided Voter on March 07, 2008, 05:25:46 pm
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 07, 2008, 05:23:24 pm
The poll shows my candidate not having as high of a % as I think he should have, so it must be trash.




I agree that Obama will win, but how could we possibly predict the margin?

Harry please don't make up quotes using my name. I can predict the margin because I'm someone who follows presidential politics and if you really think the margin might be this close you haven't paid much attention to how the black vote has broke over time.
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Harry
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2008, 05:35:13 pm »
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Quote from: Eraserhead on March 07, 2008, 05:34:17 pm
Quote from: Harry the Decided Voter on March 07, 2008, 05:25:46 pm
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 07, 2008, 05:23:24 pm
The poll shows my candidate not having as high of a % as I think he should have, so it must be trash.




I agree that Obama will win, but how could we possibly predict the margin?

Harry please don't make up quotes using my name. I can predict the margin because I'm someone who follows presidential politics and if you really think the margin might be this close you haven't paid much attention to how the black vote has broke over time.

Just jerking your chain, of course Tongue
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