3 state elections in Germany in September

[Vasall des Midas]

September 5th, Saarland
1999 result
turnout 68,7%
CDU 45,5 - 26 seats
SPD 44,4 - 25 seats
Greens 3,2
FDP 2,6
other 4,3

This is a left-leaning state with declining coal industry, but PM Peter Müller is extremely popular (heck, I like the guy myself) and the SPD is nationally very unpopular at the moment. You get the picture. The Greens' worst state in West Germany, but I guess they'll be getting back in. They're riding high in national polls right now.

Septermber 19th, Brandenburg & Saxony (both eastern states)
'99 results
Brandenburg
turnout 54,3 (one of the worst ever)
SPD 39,3 - 37 seats
CDU 26,6 - 25 seats
PDS 23,3 - 22 seats
DVU (far right) 5,3
Greens 1,9
FDP 1,9
others 1,7
Saxony
turnout 61,1
CDU 56,9 - 76 seats
PDS 22,2 - 30 seats
SPD 10,7 - 14 seats. Worst result ever in a state election.
Greens 2,6
FDP 1,1
others 6,5

In Brandenburg, currently governed by a SPD-CDU coalition, the PDS topped the poll in the Euro Elections, and I guess they'll do it again in September. What happens next no one can say. I hope the DVU gets stuffed. Outside chance of Greens getting back in.

In Saxony, the big question is whether the CDU can maintain its absolute majority (current guess: less than 50% likely, but will be close) and the little questions are, by how much will the PDS improve? Can the SPD escape falling into single digits? Will the Greens get back in? (Polls say yes, but they did so in Thuringia as well), Could the FDP do something here? (their best chance of the three, will be close), might there be a nasty surprise from the far right?

[Sibboleth]

Müller wins easily methinks...
How good are the Neo-Nazi's chances in the Eastern states?

[Vasall des Midas]

Müller wins easily methinks...
How good are the Neo-Nazi's chances in the Eastern states?

You never know.They haven't won any seats since the Brandenburg election of five years back. I've seen two recent polls (by different firms) for Saxony, one of them was
CDU 44
PDS 25
SPD 12
Greens 6
FDP 4,5
right wing parties 5
other 3,5

the other was
CDU 45
PDS 25
SPD 10
Greens 6
FDP 6
NPD 2 (the worst of the far right parties)
other 6

I'd have to check which and how many of these outfits are actually running in Saxony.

[Vasall des Midas]

Bad news: The NPD is the only one of the more established far right parties (NPD, REP, DVU) to run. There's one thing called Deutsche Gemeinschaft für Gerechtigkeit that sounds far-right to me by their name.

[Sibboleth]

Bad news: The NPD is the only one of the more established far right parties (NPD, REP, DVU) to run. There's one thing called Deutsche Gemeinschaft für Gerechtigkeit that sounds far-right to me by their name.

[cwelsch]

Hmm, so Nazi parties aren't banned?  I thought the FRG banned neo-Nazi parties.

[Vasall des Midas]

Hmm, so Nazi parties aren't banned?  I thought the FRG banned neo-Nazi parties.

Parties can be banned in Germany, by the Supreme Court, if they're deemed to be "anti-constitutional". The Government has to demand it, then the Supreme Court decides.
In 1952, the government asked the SC to ban the Socialist Reich Party, which was led by actual former Nazis. It was banned in 1953.
In 1951, government asked the SC to ban the Communist Party. Proceedings took five years and in the end the KPD was banned, but the SC raised the threshold so high - for example, asking the government to prove the party in question wasn't prodded onto that course by government informers - that no government tried to ban the NPD, which had a rash of successes in the mid-to-late sixties and then drifted back into obscurity, until the current one. They tried. They lost because the NPD is chockful of informers - in fact, it seems that for a time, the different police and secret service forces (we're a federalist country you know - each state has its own one, plus the feds...) had a working majority in some of the party's state units' leadership councils...
The worst thing about it was that, in some of these cases, the whole NPD leadership knew - they knew the law too and considered these guys their policy against a ban! It worked...

[Old Europe]

The CDU will win in Saarland and Saxony, in both cases probably with an absolute majority.

The question in Saxony is, if the election will result in a "protest vote shock" (for example 28% for PDS and 7% for NPD or something like that...).

But Brandenburg is the really interesting of these elections because all three "major" parties (CDU, SPD, PDS) are virtually neck to neck and the outcome is totally open.

[Tory]

Which party are you affiliated with, Old Europe?

[Old Europe]

Which party are you affiliated with, Old Europe?

What do you mean with "affiliated"? I´m not a member of a particular political party. In most cases, I vote for the SPD or the Greens (at the moment I´m leaning more towards the Greens). Is it that what you wanted to know?

[Tory]

Which party are you affiliated with, Old Europe?

What do you mean with "affiliated"? I´m not a member of a particular political party. In most cases, I vote for the SPD or the Greens (at the moment I´m leaning more towards the Greens). Is it that what you wanted to know?

Yes, that's what I wanted to know.

[Old Europe]

Yes, that's what I wanted to know.

And why?

[Tory]

Yes, that's what I wanted to know.

And why?

I was just wondering. It seems whenever there are Europeans on these forums they are at the left end of the European political spectrum. Bono and I are the only exceptions I can think of.

[Old Europe]

I was just wondering. It seems whenever there are Europeans on these forums they are at the left end of the European political spectrum. Bono and I are the only exceptions I can think of.

Well, I wouldn´t say "left end". The PDS is "left end". In fact, I can be fairly centrist, at least on economic issues... when I´m in the mood.

But despite the fact they are using Democratic avatars, I think they were some conservatives from Scandinavia here... but maybe that´s because most conservatives from the Nordic countries are moderate conservatives???

[Tory]

I don't assume they are left wing by thier Democrat avatars. I know Gustaf is a right leaning moderate by European standards. So is Huckleberry Finn I believe.

I have a couple of questions if you don't mind. The PDS is the remnants of the communist party in the old DDR right? So why do the people of Brandenburg still vote for them? Wouldn't they want to rid themselves of thier communist past?

How do the left wingers in Berlin vote, PDS or SPD?

[Old Europe]

I don't assume they are left wing by thier Democrat avatars. I know Gustaf is a right leaning moderate by European standards. So is Huckleberry Finn I believe.

No, that´s not what I meant. You said that all but two European users (you and Bono) are left-leaning. And what I tried to say is, that they are some Scandinavian members, who, despite the fact they´re using Democratic avatars, are conservative.

I have a couple of questions if you don't mind. The PDS is the remnants of the communist party in the old DDR right? So why do the people of Brandenburg still vote for them? Wouldn't they want to rid themselves of thier communist past?

Oh, no, why do you have to start with one of the most complex political questions of post-unification Germany.

Well, first, the PDS is not totally the same party than the old SED. They got almost completely rid of their old leaders in 1989/1990 and they adapted a much more moderate platform (I think there is even a sentence in their new programme that free entrepreneurship can be a useful tool or something like that).

Second, not 100% of the East German population was in favor of overthrowing the communist regime back then. And not 100% of the East German population is voting for the PDS now. In the first free East German elections in 1990 the PDS received 16% of the vote. There are still some former Eastern bloc nations with a relatively strong communist party, for example the Czech Republic.

Third, shortly after unfication some, uh, let´s say, "cultural conflicts" between West Germans and East Germans began to appear (40 years of separation left their traces). And economically, East Germany was and is still much weaker than the West. So, some East Germans started to feel like underdogs. The PDS successfully took advantage of these feelings and began to transform itself into a party which represents the interests of the East Germans towards the federal government and the Western states.

Finally, the SPD started these "Agenda 2010" and "Hartz" reforms last year. The result was that the SPD moved very much from the left towards the center. These reforms are considered unpopular among parts of the electorate, especially in the East. So, the PDS started to fill the gap which was left behind by the SPD with protesting against these reforms. That´s what also meant with a possible "protest vote shock".

So, I think that covers it pretty much.

How do the left wingers in Berlin vote, PDS or SPD?

Well, I guess that depends on the left wingers. But the PDS is of course much, much stronger in the eastern part of the city. In fact, East Berlin is considered their most important stronghold.

[freek]

I have a couple of questions if you don't mind. The PDS is the remnants of the communist party in the old DDR right? So why do the people of Brandenburg still vote for them? Wouldn't they want to rid themselves of thier communist past?

Not every East-German supported the fall of the communist regime in 1989. Also for some East Germans the unification with West Germany has in the end lead to disappointment, for example the unemployment level is still high in the East.

[freek]

No, that´s not what I meant. You said that all but two European users (you and Bono) are left-leaning. And what I tried to say is, that they are some Scandinavian members, who, despite the fact they´re using Democratic avatars, are conservative.

I'm not a very regular user, but I see myself as conservative too, in a Dutch way. .

I think that for Americans, almost every European user on this forum is left-leaning, while in European eyes almost every American user is right-leaning.

[Vasall des Midas]

No, that´s not what I meant. You said that all but two European users (you and Bono) are left-leaning. And what I tried to say is, that they are some Scandinavian members, who, despite the fact they´re using Democratic avatars, are conservative.

I'm not a very regular user, but I see myself as conservative too, in a Dutch way. .

I think that for Americans, almost every European user on this forum is left-leaning, while in European eyes almost every American user is right-leaning.

Especially Migrendel and Better Red.

Yeah, good description, OldEurope.

There's one thing I'd like to add: When you see polls of how people feel about a certain issue, split up by East/West and political party, you will often - but not always - notice that it's actually centrists who vote PDS. I'll be buggered if I know why that is...

[Jens]

No, that´s not what I meant. You said that all but two European users (you and Bono) are left-leaning. And what I tried to say is, that they are some Scandinavian members, who, despite the fact they´re using Democratic avatars, are conservative.

I'm not a very regular user, but I see myself as conservative too, in a Dutch way. .

I think that for Americans, almost every European user on this forum is left-leaning, while in European eyes almost every American user is right-leaning.

Especially Migrendel and Better Red.

Yeah, good description, OldEurope.

There's one thing I'd like to add: When you see polls of how people feel about a certain issue, split up by East/West and political party, you will often - but not always - notice that it's actually centrists who vote PDS. I'll be buggered if I know why that is...

Another thing that I find strange is that Saxony has a CDU majority. In the good old days it was a KPD stronghold and at one point caused the fall of the government (Stresemann 1923).

One thing that I know about PDS is that the party to some extent resemplence the Nordic left parties Socialist People's Party (DK); Socialist Left Party (N) and Left Party(S). All parties used to be very classic socialist (workes rights, full employment ect) but managed to pick up the green movement in the eighties (except LP in Sweden) and via that a large group of well off and well educated young people.
It seems that PDS gets the vote from that group in ex-DDR and that is probably the reason why the Greens fare quite badly in East Germany. (It is a hunch. I lack scientific evidence )

[Tory]

How does each state typically vote?(If one of you doesn't mind of course )

[Old Europe]

Another thing that I find strange is that Saxony has a CDU majority. In the good old days it was a KPD stronghold and at one point caused the fall of the government (Stresemann 1923).

Well, between then and now lies sixty years of dictatorship (Hitler + SED rule in East Germany). After that time almost everyone who voted for the KPD in the 20ies is dead now, and all voting traditions from democratic times were erased. But I know what you mean, everyone was surprised in 1990 when the CDU first won the elections in Saxony. Aditionally, I think the strong showings of the CDU were a direct result of the popularity of Kurt "King Kurt" Biedenkopf, who was prime minister of the state for over decade.

One thing that I know about PDS is that the party to some extent resemplence the Nordic left parties Socialist People's Party (DK); Socialist Left Party (N) and Left Party(S). All parties used to be very classic socialist (workes rights, full employment ect) but managed to pick up the green movement in the eighties (except LP in Sweden) and via that a large group of well off and well educated young people.
It seems that PDS gets the vote from that group in ex-DDR and that is probably the reason why the Greens fare quite badly in East Germany. (It is a hunch. I lack scientific evidence )

Well, I wouldn´t say so. The PDS isn´t explicitly a environmentalist party (at least not more as the SPD is one), the green movement in East Germany was in opposition to the SED, and most people who vote for the PDS are not the well off, but the losers of the unification such as unemployed people. Like I said, one of the reason why the PDS is currently so strong are these government reforms, which included cutbacks in the welfare system.

In fact, the reason why the Greens AND the FDP are so weak in the east is that there are not enough voters who fit in the profile of their "usual" voters. The Greens and the FDP are parties who are both strong among the well off and the well educated. According to a recent study the Greens are even stronger among the well off than the FDP (traditionally considered to be the party of the well of).

[Jens]

Well, I wouldn´t say so. The PDS isn´t explicitly a environmentalist party (at least not more as the SPD is one), the green movement in East Germany was in opposition to the SED, and most people who vote for the PDS are not the well off, but the losers of the unification such as unemployed people. Like I said, one of the reason why the PDS is currently so strong are these government reforms, which included cutbacks in the welfare system.

In fact, the reason why the Greens AND the FDP are so weak in the east is that there are not enough voters who fit in the profile of their "usual" voters. The Greens and the FDP are parties who are both strong among the well off and the well educated. According to a recent study the Greens are even stronger among the well off than the FDP (traditionally considered to be the party of the well of).

East Germany has a lot of well educated (nothing wrong with the DDR educational system) people that are potentional Green or FDP voters, but the reunification has treated them sooooo badly that they have joined up with the PDS (plus they probably are rather pissed over the lack of respect they encounter in some parts of the West German society).

[Old Europe]

East Germany has a lot of well educated (nothing wrong with the DDR educational system) people that are potentional Green or FDP voters, but the reunification has treated them sooooo badly that they have joined up with the PDS (plus they probably are rather pissed over the lack of respect they encounter in some parts of the West German society).

I didn´t say that East Germany has no well educated people... hell, I´m one of them.

What I wanted to say is, that the "well off" usually vote for the FDP or the Greens in a rate above average, while the PDS is more the party of the unemployed and other "losers" of the unification process.

[WMS]

I had wondered why in God's name anybody would vote PDS, but I see some reasons now...

True Story: back in the mid-90's, when I was an undergraduate, one of my friends was a student from Germany. Ex-military, and Green-leftist. And when the subject of German politics came up, he would wince in disgust at the mention of the PDS, and expressed quite a negative view of it...