PA PrimD: Rasmussen: Clinton With Strong Lead in Pennsylvania

[Ogre Mage]

I consider Hillary to be the extremely strong favorite in Pennsylvania for the following reasons:

• The Rendell/Nutter Machine is behind her
• Pennsylvania is a closed Democratic Primary
• A large white, working class population
• A large senior population
• A large Catholic population

Pennsylvania looks a lot like Ohio except there are more seniors, more Catholics and the primary is closed.  And she won Ohio by 10%. 

[Gustaf]

Downplay PA and make...what...Wyoming into a huge deal? Sorry but who looks silly then?

Frankly it wouldn't surprise me if Obama won more net delegates out of Wyoming than Hillary does out of Pennsylvania.

Before you laugh at that: Go take a look at the delegate numbers in Idaho and New Jersey.

As of right now, I doubt that.

[Smash255]

PA is a closed Primary, but I have seen several stories on how a large number of Independents and Republicans have switched to Democrats in recent months likely to vote in the Primary.  Anyone know if its generally spread out across the state or if those switching to Democratic is concentrated in one area of the state?  Obviously the larger chunk of these voters coming from suburban Philly the better for Obama.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Bradley effect.   Ugh.   Not pretty.

[Speed of Sound]

PA is a closed Primary, but I have seen several stories on how a large number of Independents and Republicans have switched to Democrats in recent months likely to vote in the Primary.  Anyone know if its generally spread out across the state or if those switching to Democratic is concentrated in one area of the state?  Obviously the larger chunk of these voters coming from suburban Philly the better for Obama.

Thats actually all we are doing in the first month. Our manager has us doing 100% registration of not registered, Republican, Independent, or Other voters.

[Flying Dog]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Actually it depends on the state. Wisconsin, Alabama, South Carolina and Missouri underestimated him. Texas, New Hampshire, California overestimated him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Actually it depends on the state. Wisconsin, Alabama, South Carolina and Missouri underestimated him. Texas, New Hampshire, California overestimated him.

Texas polls didn't overestimate him. They almost nailed it, and statistically did (MoE).

[Flying Dog]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Actually it depends on the state. Wisconsin, Alabama, South Carolina and Missouri underestimated him. Texas, New Hampshire, California overestimated him.

Texas polls didn't overestimate him. They almost nailed it, and statistically did (MoE).

The final was clinton +4. SUSA had Obama +1 and Rass had obama +2 i think. So its maybe not dramatic.

[Lief 🗽]

On average, Obama does better than polls predict, especially if you remove horrible outlier polls (Uni polls, Zogby, etc.)