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Author Topic: PA-American Research Group: Clinton leads Obama by 11  (Read 3807 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #25 on: March 09, 2008, 05:11:50 pm »
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Look, all I'm saying is that McCain runs better in Pennsylvania and Ohio because of what happens with white working class Democrats.

I agree that he will.  I just think Obama goes at this thing with a slightly different coalition than we are used to and that will help him in Virginia and out West...

Kerry2004 + CO + NM + NV = 271
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« Reply #26 on: March 09, 2008, 05:15:04 pm »
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Close election.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #27 on: March 09, 2008, 05:19:00 pm »
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Close election.

we wouldn't have it any other way
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« Reply #28 on: March 09, 2008, 05:19:23 pm »
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Look, all I'm saying is that McCain runs better in Pennsylvania and Ohio because of what happens with white working class Democrats.

I agree that he will.  I just think Obama goes at this thing with a slightly different coalition than we are used to and that will help him in Virginia and out West...

Kerry2004 + CO + NM + NV = 271


Plus Iowa. There's a very good chance Obama can pick that state up.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2008, 05:25:22 pm »
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Look, all I'm saying is that McCain runs better in Pennsylvania and Ohio because of what happens with white working class Democrats.

I agree that he will.  I just think Obama goes at this thing with a slightly different coalition than we are used to and that will help him in Virginia and out West...

Kerry2004 + CO + NM + NV = 271


Plus Iowa. There's a very good chance Obama can pick that state up.

completely forgot that Kerry lost that.  so yeah, that makes 278 (which means he can lose CO and send it to the HOR, which likely would elect him if I have my delegations right).
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« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2008, 05:33:41 pm »
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Look, all I'm saying is that McCain runs better in Pennsylvania and Ohio because of what happens with white working class Democrats.

I agree that he will.  I just think Obama goes at this thing with a slightly different coalition than we are used to and that will help him in Virginia and out West...

Kerry2004 + CO + NM + NV = 271


Plus Iowa. There's a very good chance Obama can pick that state up.

completely forgot that Kerry lost that.  so yeah, that makes 278 (which means he can lose CO and send it to the HOR, which likely would elect him if I have my delegations right).

Except that you just said that Obama is more likely to win OH than PA.  So Kerry + CO + NM + NV + IA + OH - PA = 277....which would mean he needs CO in order to win.  He can't really afford to lose CO if he doesn't win PA.
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« Reply #31 on: March 09, 2008, 05:34:41 pm »
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Really?  Given that Bush carried Colorado by 5 and Kerry carried Pennsylvania by 3, what exactly is silly about it?

To see how a state stands its better to look at how it compares to the national average not just the last election result.  CO was 2.2% more GOP than the national average, PA was 5 points more Dem than the national average.  CO is no question trending Democratic, PA is showing no signs of trending GOP, and in fact in the last several elections has trended Democratic compared to the national average.  Even if you don't take into consideration the trends within the two states and base it off of the 2004 results, McCain would need to win nationally by 5 to take PA, while Obama would need to win nationally by 2.2 to take Colorado.
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« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2008, 05:38:06 pm »
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Except that you just said that Obama is more likely to win OH than PA.  So Kerry + CO + NM + NV + IA + OH - PA = 277....which would mean he needs CO in order to win.  He can't really afford to lose CO if he doesn't win PA.

I don't believe that Obama will do better in Ohio than Pennsylvania.  if I gave that impression, I apologize.

I think he will run behind the Kerry2004 PA and OH numbers in relation to the national trend line but still hold on to Pennsylvania.

I agree that if he loses Pennsylvania and Ohio it becomes very difficult for him to win....  Kerry2004 - PA + CO + NM + NV + IA + VA is exactly 270.
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« Reply #33 on: March 09, 2008, 05:57:54 pm »
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Except that you just said that Obama is more likely to win OH than PA.  So Kerry + CO + NM + NV + IA + OH - PA = 277....which would mean he needs CO in order to win.  He can't really afford to lose CO if he doesn't win PA.

I don't believe that Obama will do better in Ohio than Pennsylvania.  if I gave that impression, I apologize.

Ah, you're right.  I misread the statement by agcatter that you were agreeing with.
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« Reply #34 on: March 09, 2008, 06:00:55 pm »
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Only by 11...I guess thats better than I expected. Though it is ARG...blah blah blah
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« Reply #35 on: March 09, 2008, 06:02:56 pm »
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Am I the only one who thinks Obama is more likely to win CO than NV or NM?
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« Reply #36 on: March 09, 2008, 06:23:11 pm »
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Am I the only one who thinks Obama is more likely to win CO than NV or NM?


I think so too but of course I'm probably being biased.
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« Reply #37 on: March 09, 2008, 07:10:55 pm »
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Secondly even if 20% of Democrats jump ship in PA with Obama (which I don't think will) he makes that up by running better with Independents than Kerry did.  To suggest at this point McCain has a better chance of taking PA than Obama does of taking Colorado is just hackish silliness.


But the independents that go for McCain will neutralize that.
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« Reply #38 on: March 09, 2008, 11:01:31 pm »
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Secondly even if 20% of Democrats jump ship in PA with Obama (which I don't think will) he makes that up by running better with Independents than Kerry did.  To suggest at this point McCain has a better chance of taking PA than Obama does of taking Colorado is just hackish silliness.


But the independents that go for McCain will neutralize that.

Except PA is a closed primary.
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« Reply #39 on: March 09, 2008, 11:13:27 pm »
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No Limbaugh Effect?
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« Reply #40 on: March 10, 2008, 12:01:39 am »
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No Limbaugh Effect?

Some, maybe, but very limited considering that you need to physically re-register as a Democrat to vote. That's certainly helped by the lack of Senate/Governor primaries or serious Congressional primaries in almost every district.
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« Reply #41 on: March 10, 2008, 02:16:21 am »
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Secondly even if 20% of Democrats jump ship in PA with Obama (which I don't think will) he makes that up by running better with Independents than Kerry did.  To suggest at this point McCain has a better chance of taking PA than Obama does of taking Colorado is just hackish silliness.


But the independents that go for McCain will neutralize that.

Throw into that calculation conservative turnout for McCain against Obama will be nothing like it was for Bush against Kerry in '04 and that Obama is likley to take a much bigger chunck of the Independent vote than McCain overall and things get a little more complicated... a big reason PA was so close last time and Bush was pushed over the top in OH was the conservative and evangelical vote comming out in force and voting by a massive (and i mean massive!) margin for him, is McCain likley to repeat that? 
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« Reply #42 on: March 10, 2008, 11:50:40 am »
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Secondly even if 20% of Democrats jump ship in PA with Obama (which I don't think will) he makes that up by running better with Independents than Kerry did.  To suggest at this point McCain has a better chance of taking PA than Obama does of taking Colorado is just hackish silliness.


But the independents that go for McCain will neutralize that.

Except PA is a closed primary.

lol

I expect Obama to take Nevada and Iowa. New Mexico I'm unsure of. I suspect it could be an uphill battle for Obama, given all his trouble with Hispanics. Doesn't seem like a perfect fit for McCain either though. On my current random whim I'd expect Obama to do slightly better in Pennsylvania than in New Mexico though. Regardless, I think Pennsylvania could be the Ohio of this year, in that either candidate will be able to win by swinging it, so it will get most of the attention.
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« Reply #43 on: March 10, 2008, 12:07:47 pm »
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PENNSYLVANIA -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain


NEVADA -
50% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain


NEW MEXICO -
49% (D) Obama
48% (R) McCain


COLORADO -
49% (D) Obama
48% (R) McCain


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« Reply #44 on: March 10, 2008, 12:36:53 pm »
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PENNSYLVANIA -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain


McCain doing worse than Bush did against Obama? I don't think so.
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« Reply #45 on: March 10, 2008, 01:54:08 pm »
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PENNSYLVANIA -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain


McCain doing worse than Bush did against Obama? I don't think so.

remember that Kerry lost the PV by 2.5% yet won PA by 2.5%
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« Reply #46 on: March 10, 2008, 01:57:15 pm »
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PENNSYLVANIA -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain


McCain doing worse than Bush did against Obama? I don't think so.

remember that Kerry lost the PV by 2.5% yet won PA by 2.5%

This match up would be just a little different, my friend.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #47 on: March 10, 2008, 02:12:02 pm »
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PENNSYLVANIA -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain


McCain doing worse than Bush did against Obama? I don't think so.

remember that Kerry lost the PV by 2.5% yet won PA by 2.5%

This match up would be just a little different, my friend.

I'm aware, and I think Obama will run behind Kerry in PA vs the national trendline, but if Obama wins nationwide by 2-3% that changes the dynamics.
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Smash255
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« Reply #48 on: March 11, 2008, 02:15:31 pm »
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PENNSYLVANIA -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain


McCain doing worse than Bush did against Obama? I don't think so.

remember that Kerry lost the PV by 2.5% yet won PA by 2.5%

This match up would be just a little different, my friend.

I'm aware, and I think Obama will run behind Kerry in PA vs the national trendline, but if Obama wins nationwide by 2-3% that changes the dynamics.

Its possible that Obama could run even with Kerry compared to nationally in PA.  The state has been trending Democratic against the national trend line the last several elections.  McCain vs Obama likely stops PA from continuing to trend Democratic compared to nationally, but might not be enough for it to trend Republican compared to nationally and may stay in the same range of about 5% more Democratic than the nation as it was in 04. 
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« Reply #49 on: March 11, 2008, 02:23:25 pm »
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PENNSYLVANIA -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain


McCain doing worse than Bush did against Obama? I don't think so.

remember that Kerry lost the PV by 2.5% yet won PA by 2.5%

This match up would be just a little different, my friend.

I'm aware, and I think Obama will run behind Kerry in PA vs the national trendline, but if Obama wins nationwide by 2-3% that changes the dynamics.

Its possible that Obama could run even with Kerry compared to nationally in PA.  The state has been trending Democratic against the national trend line the last several elections.  McCain vs Obama likely stops PA from continuing to trend Democratic compared to nationally, but might not be enough for it to trend Republican compared to nationally and may stay in the same range of about 5% more Democratic than the nation as it was in 04. 

Never underestimate the bradley effect in a state like PA.
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