PA-American Research Group: Clinton leads Obama by 11

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28% of white voters say they will never vote for Obama in the general.  28% of white Democrats.

exits suggest that Bush won 15% of the Democratic vote in PA in 2004.  figure that nearly all the Democrats that voted Bush were whites, add in the large MoE for the subsample that you just cited, and that 28% figure no longer looks so stunning.

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And if it's 20% of Dems that jump ship, Obama loses Pennsylvania.  It wasn't exactly a landslide last time.

that assumes black turnout would be no better and Obama fares no better among independents and Republicans.

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Look, all I'm saying is that McCain runs better in Pennsylvania and Ohio because of what happens with white working class Democrats.

I agree that he will.  I just think Obama goes at this thing with a slightly different coalition than we are used to and that will help him in Virginia and out West...

Kerry2004 + CO + NM + NV = 271

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Close election.

we wouldn't have it any other way

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Look, all I'm saying is that McCain runs better in Pennsylvania and Ohio because of what happens with white working class Democrats.

I agree that he will.  I just think Obama goes at this thing with a slightly different coalition than we are used to and that will help him in Virginia and out West...

Kerry2004 + CO + NM + NV = 271

Plus Iowa. There's a very good chance Obama can pick that state up.

completely forgot that Kerry lost that.  so yeah, that makes 278 (which means he can lose CO and send it to the HOR, which likely would elect him if I have my delegations right).

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Except that you just said that Obama is more likely to win OH than PA.  So Kerry + CO + NM + NV + IA + OH - PA = 277....which would mean he needs CO in order to win.  He can't really afford to lose CO if he doesn't win PA.

I don't believe that Obama will do better in Ohio than Pennsylvania.  if I gave that impression, I apologize.

I think he will run behind the Kerry2004 PA and OH numbers in relation to the national trend line but still hold on to Pennsylvania.

I agree that if he loses Pennsylvania and Ohio it becomes very difficult for him to win....  Kerry2004 - PA + CO + NM + NV + IA + VA is exactly 270.

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PENNSYLVANIA -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain

McCain doing worse than Bush did against Obama? I don't think so.

remember that Kerry lost the PV by 2.5% yet won PA by 2.5%

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PENNSYLVANIA -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain

McCain doing worse than Bush did against Obama? I don't think so.

remember that Kerry lost the PV by 2.5% yet won PA by 2.5%

This match up would be just a little different, my friend.

I'm aware, and I think Obama will run behind Kerry in PA vs the national trendline, but if Obama wins nationwide by 2-3% that changes the dynamics.