PENNSYLVANIA -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain
McCain doing worse than Bush did against Obama? I don't think so.
remember that Kerry lost the PV by 2.5% yet won PA by 2.5%
This match up would be just a little different, my friend.
I'm aware, and I think Obama will run behind Kerry in PA vs the national trendline, but if Obama wins nationwide by 2-3% that changes the dynamics.
Its possible that Obama could run even with Kerry compared to nationally in PA. The state has been trending Democratic against the national trend line the last several elections. McCain vs Obama likely stops PA from continuing to trend Democratic compared to nationally, but might not be enough for it to trend Republican compared to nationally and may stay in the same range of about 5% more Democratic than the nation as it was in 04.
Never underestimate the bradley effect in a state like PA.
