PA-American Research Group: Clinton leads Obama by 11

[Smash255]

And if it's 20% of Dems that jump ship, Obama loses Pennsylvania.  It wasn't exactly a landslide last time.

But hey, Republicans have one opening to win the White House.  The nomination of Obama gives the GOP that one opening.  Pennsylvania and Ohio plus it nails down Florida.  Obama runs better in other red states but so what?  He isn't gonna carry Kansas.  He wins Washington and Oregon by 8 or 10 istead of 5.  Again, so what?  Plus West Virginia is solid which it might not have been with Hillary and the Republicans get back the certain loss of Arkansas.  McCain has a slight shot at NM which he had NO shot with Hillary.  The only plus is Obama runs better in Colorado but the GOP has a better chance of winning Pa than Obama has in Col.  Obama runs better than Hillary among independents.  Hillary will run better among blue collar Dems than Obama.   Given the distribution of those two domographics as far as where the electoral vote are, McCain has a better shot against Obama than Hillary.

I just like the way the popular vote is distributed vs Obama.  What I am saying is not exactly original.

But relax guys - we're all pulling for the same guy to be the nominee  - just for different reasons.

First off again their was no mention of 28% of Democratic voters not voting for Obama in the General that was the PRIMARY.  Secondly even if 20% of Democrats jump ship in PA with Obama (which I don't think will) he makes that up by running better with Independents than Kerry did.  To suggest at this point McCain has a better chance of taking PA than Obama does of taking Colorado is just hackish silliness.

[Smash255]

Really?  Given that Bush carried Colorado by 5 and Kerry carried Pennsylvania by 3, what exactly is silly about it?

To see how a state stands its better to look at how it compares to the national average not just the last election result.  CO was 2.2% more GOP than the national average, PA was 5 points more Dem than the national average.  CO is no question trending Democratic, PA is showing no signs of trending GOP, and in fact in the last several elections has trended Democratic compared to the national average.  Even if you don't take into consideration the trends within the two states and base it off of the 2004 results, McCain would need to win nationally by 5 to take PA, while Obama would need to win nationally by 2.2 to take Colorado.

[Smash255]

PENNSYLVANIA -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain

McCain doing worse than Bush did against Obama? I don't think so.

remember that Kerry lost the PV by 2.5% yet won PA by 2.5%

This match up would be just a little different, my friend.

I'm aware, and I think Obama will run behind Kerry in PA vs the national trendline, but if Obama wins nationwide by 2-3% that changes the dynamics.

Its possible that Obama could run even with Kerry compared to nationally in PA.  The state has been trending Democratic against the national trend line the last several elections.  McCain vs Obama likely stops PA from continuing to trend Democratic compared to nationally, but might not be enough for it to trend Republican compared to nationally and may stay in the same range of about 5% more Democratic than the nation as it was in 04.