The Perfect Bellwether County

[minionofmidas]

Just found this...
In 1996, Winnebago County, Iowa, voted for Bill Clinton by a margin of 8.5 percentage points, same as the country.
In 2000, it voted for Al Gore by a margin of 0.5 percentage points, same as the country.
1996 result
Clinton 48,5
Dole 40,0
Perot 10,7 (yes, I know - over average)
other 0,7

2000 result
Gore 48,7
Bush 48,2
Nader 2,1
other 1,1

[AuH2O]

How about Iowa as a bellweather state? It predicts the popular vote pretty well looks like:

1992: National/Iowa (rounded to single digit)

Clinton: 43/43
Bush: 37/37
Perot: 19/19

1996: National/Iowa (rounded to single digit)

Clinton: 50/49
Dole: 41/40
Perot: 8/9

2000: National/Iowa (rounded to hundreth digit)

Gore: 48.38/48.54
Bush: 47.87/48.22
Nader: 2.73/2.23


Some states get "bellweather" status because the winner usually takes them, but Iowa looks to be a damn good crossection. It even reflected the narrow Gore popular vote edge in its own results.

Maybe someone should do a massive poll of Iowa instead of a national poll???

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Problem is before '92, Iowa was often waaaaaay out of sinc with the rest of the country (used to be a fairly solid GOP state prior to '88, when it voted strongly for Dukakis 'cos of the farm crisis)

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, it's the perfect bellwether for the 90's, but that doesn't mean it'll stay that way.
It's not as if social indicators would make it look like average America.
-way too few minorities
-way too rural (though quite densely populated for rural America)
-no really big cities (but quite a few mid-sized ones)
-I'm not sure average income, but if I remember correctly income variation is much smaller in Iowa than in the nation as a whole.
For now, these factors seem to be cancelling each other out like nowhere else, but there's no reason to believe it'll stay that way forever.
Perfect bellwethers are really chance events...Winnebago county is tiny and rural. It's right on the Minnesota line btw, not at all far away from where Better Red lives.

[JohnFKennedy]

Winnebago county is tiny and rural. It's right on the Minnesota line btw, not at all far away from where Better Red lives.

I knew it was too good to be true! It is in fantasy land!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Winnebago county is tiny and rural. It's right on the Minnesota line btw, not at all far away from where Better Red lives.

I knew it was too good to be true! It is in fantasy land!

har har

but yeah, it's a small farming county like most of this region, right below the county that's below mine, county seat is about 90 miles away. It makes sense too, because it's sort of in the crossroads between heavily Dem Freeborn county here, and the much more conservative parts of south central Minnesota and northern Iowa.

It's worth pointing out though that this region used to be solidly Republican, and is growing more and more Dem, so right now it's just at the crossroads for the national average, pretty soon this area will be more Dem than the national average the current rate, especially if the growth of Hispanics continues.

I posted about Iowa being so close the national average here before as well. However, I do think Des Moines could classify as a "really big" city, since it is one of the 100 largest in America, #86 by recent estimates. And I think the Hispanic population is increasing, like it is here (check out the Hispanic populations in Nobles and Watowan counties)

[AuH2O]

Ah yes, let's import those Democrat Mexicans as fast as possible.

#86 would not be too good; Virginia Beach (where I live) is like #30 or so. And we're half the size (pop.) of Fairfax county.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Virginia Beach is #35. I'd put anything in the top 100 under really big.

Blame Green Giant if you want to complain about the influx of Hispanic Democrats. They hire them down south and then bus them up here to work on their farms.

[JohnFKennedy]

Winnebago county is tiny and rural. It's right on the Minnesota line btw, not at all far away from where Better Red lives.

I knew it was too good to be true! It is in fantasy land!

har har

You know I was kidding .

[minionofmidas]

Ah yes, let's import those Democrat Mexicans as fast as possible.

#86 would not be too good; Virginia Beach (where I live) is like #30 or so. And we're half the size (pop.) of Fairfax county.

I don't think it makes too much sense to look at the actual city limits. Better look for the agglomeration. In the case of VB, that's the entire Hampton Roads, Tidewater, whatever you call it, area. Which would definitely qualify as "very large". I think Des Moines would probably move a few spots down i that comparison, not sure though. Anyways, it's not one of the 50,60 largest urban areas in America, so not very large.

[TeePee4Prez]

Someone said Montgomery, PA in a paper.  It has determined most elections.

[Keystone Phil]

Someone said Montgomery, PA in a paper.  It has determined most elections.

Elk county PA is the best Bellwether is the state.

[mianfei]

Problem is before '92, Iowa was often waaaaaay out of sinc with the rest of the country (used to be a fairly solid GOP state prior to '88, when it voted strongly for Dukakis 'cos of the farm crisis)

‘88 actually did spoil the record of Montana’s Blaine County, which since its formation in 1916 would remain a perfect bellwether without that farm crisis election. People would overlook naturally a county in a remote region on the Canadian border, but to have voted for the winner in ever election but one over a century is a remarkable record. Another Canadian border county, Coös in New Hampshire, has a similar record since 1892, supporting a losing candidate only in 1968 and 2004 (were those due to unpopular wars that have no appeal to those living on the Canadian border far from military instalments?)