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Author Topic: PA PrimD: Survey USA: Clinton far ahead of Obama  (Read 5717 times)
bullmoose88
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« Reply #25 on: March 11, 2008, 01:49:40 pm »
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Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I remember reading that large numbers of Republicans and Independents (upwards of 40,000) have recently switched to Democratic, likely to vote in the Dem Primary.  I would bet a high % of these would be in SEPA.  The black population is about 1% higher in Ohio than Pennsylvania, however PA does have a larger amount of middle to upper middle class whites than Ohio does.  They both have a large working class white population which Clinton obviously will do very well in PA as she did in Ohio, but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

That's interesting, can you find the link...I havent seen that on the local newspaper sites...but I'd be interested to read about it.
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« Reply #26 on: March 11, 2008, 01:51:11 pm »
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Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I remember reading that large numbers of Republicans and Independents (upwards of 40,000) have recently switched to Democratic, likely to vote in the Dem Primary.  I would bet a high % of these would be in SEPA.  The black population is about 1% higher in Ohio than Pennsylvania, however PA does have a larger amount of middle to upper middle class whites than Ohio does.  They both have a large working class white population which Clinton obviously will do very well in PA as she did in Ohio, but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

That's interesting, can you find the link...I havent seen that on the local newspaper sites...but I'd be interested to read about it.

I don't think it's true. They have covered the fact that people will switch but I haven't seen the numbers yet. I think they'd wait until a few days before or after the deadline to switch (in about two weeks, I believe).
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Ben.
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« Reply #27 on: March 11, 2008, 01:58:32 pm »
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The funny* thing is that now the Dems are going to spend millions of dollars and hours of tv time bashing each other up in a campaign thats likely to get very negative in a state which, come the general, is going to be a key battle ground for both parties... is it only me that sees a really big problem for the Dems (regardless of the nominee) in all of this?

*Of course "funny" might not be the right word depending on your point of view.     
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Smash255
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« Reply #28 on: March 11, 2008, 02:02:58 pm »
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Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I remember reading that large numbers of Republicans and Independents (upwards of 40,000) have recently switched to Democratic, likely to vote in the Dem Primary.  I would bet a high % of these would be in SEPA.  The black population is about 1% higher in Ohio than Pennsylvania, however PA does have a larger amount of middle to upper middle class whites than Ohio does.  They both have a large working class white population which Clinton obviously will do very well in PA as she did in Ohio, but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

That's interesting, can you find the link...I havent seen that on the local newspaper sites...but I'd be interested to read about it.

I don't think it's true. They have covered the fact that people will switch but I haven't seen the numbers yet. I think they'd wait until a few days before or after the deadline to switch (in about two weeks, I believe).

I remember reading it somewhere, I'm at work now so don't really have time to search for it, but will post a link tonight or tomorrow night when I have more time to look.

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« Reply #29 on: March 11, 2008, 03:06:42 pm »
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Smash is wrong. There are plenty of bourgeois suburbs in Ohio, it's just that they aren't all (or rather; almost all) concentrated in just one metropolitan area.
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« Reply #30 on: March 11, 2008, 03:08:14 pm »
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Smash is wrong. There are plenty of bourgeois suburbs in Ohio, it's just that they aren't all (or rather; almost all) concentrated in just one metropolitan area.

What the hell are you basing this crap on?
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« Reply #31 on: March 11, 2008, 03:14:01 pm »
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Smash is wrong. There are plenty of bourgeois suburbs in Ohio, it's just that they aren't all (or rather; almost all) concentrated in just one metropolitan area.

What the hell are you basing this crap on?

Cheesy
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« Reply #32 on: March 11, 2008, 03:47:24 pm »
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Smash is wrong. There are plenty of bourgeois suburbs in Ohio, it's just that they aren't all (or rather; almost all) concentrated in just one metropolitan area.

I wasn't trying to suggest that it didn't exist in Ohio, but rather its larger in PA than Ohio.
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« Reply #33 on: March 11, 2008, 11:49:03 pm »
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you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

No? Northeast of Cleveland? Outside of Cincy? Columbus 'burbs? Certainly more prone to vote Republican in Ohio, but many of the Democratic votes that pushed Rendell, Sestak, Murphy, etc. into power were made by disaffected Republicans (Montco recorded 104,000 votes in the 2007 Primary - 39,000 Dems and 60,000 Republicans).
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« Reply #34 on: March 12, 2008, 11:44:13 am »
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Smash is wrong. There are plenty of bourgeois suburbs in Ohio, it's just that they aren't all (or rather; almost all) concentrated in just one metropolitan area.

And they all vote mostly Republican.
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Smash255
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« Reply #35 on: March 12, 2008, 08:56:22 pm »
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Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap

Dave

Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).

All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.

I remember reading that large numbers of Republicans and Independents (upwards of 40,000) have recently switched to Democratic, likely to vote in the Dem Primary.  I would bet a high % of these would be in SEPA.  The black population is about 1% higher in Ohio than Pennsylvania, however PA does have a larger amount of middle to upper middle class whites than Ohio does.  They both have a large working class white population which Clinton obviously will do very well in PA as she did in Ohio, but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

That's interesting, can you find the link...I havent seen that on the local newspaper sites...but I'd be interested to read about it.

I don't think it's true. They have covered the fact that people will switch but I haven't seen the numbers yet. I think they'd wait until a few days before or after the deadline to switch (in about two weeks, I believe).

No hard data on how many people switched from Independent and Republican to Democratic, and all three saw gains since the fall, but the differences are quite stark.  Republicans have added 3,312 those enrolled in neither gained by approx 8,000 and democratic enrollment increased by 65,397.  The largest Democratic gains were in Montco, Delaware and Chester.


Quote
Dems Surge by 65,000 in Pa.

By PETER JACKSON – 2 days ago

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Pennsylvania Democrats have added more than 65,000 voters to their rolls since last fall, a reflection of the high level of interest in the contested race for the party's presidential nomination and the state's April 22 primary.

The number of Democrats increased 1.7 percent — from 3,883,378 in November to 3,948,775 as of March 4.

GOP enrollment grew by 0.1 percent, from 3,245,271 to 3,248,583, during the period.

The interim totals, drawn from a computerized statewide voter registry, were provided by state elections officials Monday. The Associated Press compared those numbers against the registration totals in last year's election, which featured races for judicial and municipal offices.

Campaign spokesmen for Democratic candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama both sought to share in the credit for the increases.

Sean Smith of Obama's campaign said supporters of the Illinois senator were working to recruit Republicans, independents and people not registered to vote for the Democratic Party even before the campaign became active in Pennsylvania last month. Last weekend, 1,200 volunteers canvassed shopping malls and went door to door to court more new registrants, he said.

"It's exactly the kind of shoe-leather work that our campaign has been known for," Smith said.

Clinton spokesman Mark Nevins contended the increase reflects disenchantment with the GOP and President Bush, as well as the allure of "two impressive candidates" for the Democratic nod.

It's "a rebuke of the Republican brand by the Pennsylvania voters," he said.

Clinton, a senator from New York, began a two-day swing through Pennsylvania in Scranton on Monday. Former President Clinton was scheduled to stump for her in western Pennsylvania on Tuesday while she visits Harrisburg and Philadelphia.

Obama planned to tour and meet with workers at a wind-turbine plant in suburban Philadelphia on Tuesday.

Mike Barley, a spokesman for the state Republican Party, said he believes many of the new Democratic registrants are independent-minded Republicans who are caught up in the excitement of the Democratic race. Sen. John McCain of Arizona has clinched the GOP nomination.

"We feel pretty strongly that, come November, we're going to get those people back," Barley said.

The Democratic primary is open only to registered Democrats. Voters have until March 24 to switch or join parties.

The Democrats' biggest registration gains were in three suburban Philadelphia counties — Chester, Delaware and Montgomery. While the GOP still holds the registration edge in those counties, those largely white-collar communities often cross party lines and are considered swing areas for Democrats in statewide races.

The number of voters registered in neither of the major parties also increased, from about 984,000 to nearly 992,000, the new figures show.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g73v_gaMTeTWhOZQ8iJuo5NQTCzAD8VAR9IO0
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #36 on: March 12, 2008, 09:05:14 pm »
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Obama planned to tour and meet with workers at a wind-turbine plant in suburban Philadelphia on Tuesday.

Anyone else find that funny?
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Smash255
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« Reply #37 on: March 12, 2008, 09:08:12 pm »
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you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.

No? Northeast of Cleveland? Outside of Cincy? Columbus 'burbs? Certainly more prone to vote Republican in Ohio, but many of the Democratic votes that pushed Rendell, Sestak, Murphy, etc. into power were made by disaffected Republicans (Montco recorded 104,000 votes in the 2007 Primary - 39,000 Dems and 60,000 Republicans).

An off year election has a bit of a different dynamic.  Even with the GOP enrollment edge in suburban Philly (which continues to decrease) its still going to result in the white primary vote having a larger % of educated middle and upper middle class voters than in Ohio.  Thats not to state working class whites won't make up a large portion of the white vote in PA, they will just not to the extent they did in Ohio.  Obama has done well with white liberals (especially social liberals) you clearly have more of them in suburban Philly than you do in suburban Cleveland, Columbus & certainly suburban Cincy.
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« Reply #38 on: March 12, 2008, 09:20:57 pm »
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its still going to result in the white primary vote having a larger % of educated middle and upper middle class voters than in Ohio.

Hmm... perhaps. But not by much, certainly not by as much as you seem to think.

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Thats not to state working class whites won't make up a large portion of the white vote in PA, they will just not to the extent they did in Ohio.

Ah, but how are we defining working class here? If we accept that class is, to a great extent, as much about culture as anything else, then I don't actually think that's true.
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« Reply #39 on: March 12, 2008, 09:28:18 pm »
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its still going to result in the white primary vote having a larger % of educated middle and upper middle class voters than in Ohio.

Hmm... perhaps. But not by much, certainly not by as much as you seem to think.


I'm not trying to suggest Obama will win PA, I think Clinton will.  However, some of the talk has been she will win it by a larger portion than she did in Ohio, and I think that will be really hard for her to accomplish with the educated middle to upper middle class white vote being a little higher in PA.
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« Reply #40 on: March 12, 2008, 09:29:44 pm »
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its still going to result in the white primary vote having a larger % of educated middle and upper middle class voters than in Ohio.

Hmm... perhaps. But not by much, certainly not by as much as you seem to think.


I'm not trying to suggest Obama will win PA, I think Clinton will.  However, some of the talk has been she will win it by a larger portion than she did in Ohio, and I think that will be really hard for her to accomplish with the educated middle to upper middle class white vote being a little higher in PA.

PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary - and it's a closed primary. Was Ohio closed?
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« Reply #41 on: March 12, 2008, 09:33:05 pm »
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PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary

60 and over by state, 2004 exit poll:

Ohio: 20%
Pennsylvania: 22%

A lot?
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« Reply #42 on: March 12, 2008, 09:55:06 pm »
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its still going to result in the white primary vote having a larger % of educated middle and upper middle class voters than in Ohio.

Hmm... perhaps. But not by much, certainly not by as much as you seem to think.


I'm not trying to suggest Obama will win PA, I think Clinton will.  However, some of the talk has been she will win it by a larger portion than she did in Ohio, and I think that will be really hard for her to accomplish with the educated middle to upper middle class white vote being a little higher in PA.

PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary - and it's a closed primary. Was Ohio closed?

No, but a closed primary would also result in a higher % of African Americans than an open one would. 
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« Reply #43 on: March 12, 2008, 10:17:44 pm »
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No, but a closed primary would also result in a higher % of African Americans than an open one would. 

But having an open primary doesn't reduce the number of black voters, and unless Clinton does better (in net) among the crossover voters, that would only be good for Obama.
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« Reply #44 on: March 12, 2008, 10:20:08 pm »
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PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary

60 and over by state, 2004 exit poll:

Ohio: 20%
Pennsylvania: 22%

A lot?

More olds died in Ohio since then. Next.

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« Reply #45 on: March 12, 2008, 10:25:05 pm »
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PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary

60 and over by state, 2004 exit poll:

Ohio: 20%
Pennsylvania: 22%

A lot?

More olds died in Ohio since then. Next.

Change between 2000 and 2006 in population over the age of 65, U.S. Census:

Ohio: 13.3% to 13.3% (unch)
Pennsylvania: 15.6% to 15.1% (-3.2%)

Next.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #46 on: March 12, 2008, 10:26:14 pm »
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PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary

60 and over by state, 2004 exit poll:

Ohio: 20%
Pennsylvania: 22%

A lot?

More olds died in Ohio since then. Next.

Change between 2000 and 2006 in population over the age of 65, U.S. Census:

Ohio: 13.3% to 13.3% (unch)
Pennsylvania: 15.6% to 15.1% (-3.2%)

Next.

LOL at the naive.

Who believes the U.S. government figures these days?
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« Reply #47 on: March 12, 2008, 10:29:26 pm »
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PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary

60 and over by state, 2004 exit poll:

Ohio: 20%
Pennsylvania: 22%

A lot?

More olds died in Ohio since then. Next.

Change between 2000 and 2006 in population over the age of 65, U.S. Census:

Ohio: 13.3% to 13.3% (unch)
Pennsylvania: 15.6% to 15.1% (-3.2%)

Next.

LOL at the naive.

Who believes the U.S. government figures these days?

Yeah....facts...schmacks.
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« Reply #48 on: March 12, 2008, 10:29:49 pm »
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PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary

60 and over by state, 2004 exit poll:

Ohio: 20%
Pennsylvania: 22%

A lot?

More olds died in Ohio since then. Next.

Change between 2000 and 2006 in population over the age of 65, U.S. Census:

Ohio: 13.3% to 13.3% (unch)
Pennsylvania: 15.6% to 15.1% (-3.2%)

Next.

LOL at the naive.

Who believes the U.S. government figures these days?

In that case, I refer you to:

State of Ohio.  "Single Year of Age by Sex Estimates for Ohio: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006."

Pennsylvania State University.  "Population Demographics -- State of Pennsylvania."

Both of which agree with me: Ohio basically static, Pennsylvania a slight fall, definitely not more olds dying in Ohio.

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« Reply #49 on: March 12, 2008, 10:31:26 pm »
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PA also has a lot more older voters - Strong for Hillary

60 and over by state, 2004 exit poll:

Ohio: 20%
Pennsylvania: 22%

A lot?

More olds died in Ohio since then. Next.

Change between 2000 and 2006 in population over the age of 65, U.S. Census:

Ohio: 13.3% to 13.3% (unch)
Pennsylvania: 15.6% to 15.1% (-3.2%)

Next.

LOL at the naive.

Who believes the U.S. government figures these days?

In that case, I refer you to:

State of Ohio.  "Single Year of Age by Sex Estimates for Ohio: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006."

Pennsylvania State University.  "Population Demographics -- State of Pennsylvania."

Both of which agree with me: Ohio basically static, Pennsylvania a slight fall, definitely not more olds dying in Ohio.

I...have no idea why you are seriously responding to me.

Anyway, I was under the impression PA had far more old people but I guess that's not the case.
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