Could PA be any worse for Obama than OH? There is, of course, ample time for Obama to campaign and close the gap
Dave
Actually, yeah it could. PA is closed which will reduce crossovers by a significant amount simply because Obama now has two weeks to re-register independents and Republicans where they could simply request to change affiliation at the polling station. Pennsylvania also has a slightly smaller percentage of blacks and unlike in Ohio, Obama won't have the endorsement and machine of the mayors of the bigger cities (Rendell, Nutter, and Street are backing Hillary; Mallory and Jackson backed Obama).
All in all, it could get very ugly for Obama, like 15 point margin ugly.
I remember reading that large numbers of Republicans and Independents (upwards of 40,000) have recently switched to Democratic, likely to vote in the Dem Primary. I would bet a high % of these would be in SEPA. The black population is about 1% higher in Ohio than Pennsylvania, however PA does have a larger amount of middle to upper middle class whites than Ohio does. They both have a large working class white population which Clinton obviously will do very well in PA as she did in Ohio, but you really don't have an area in Ohio like suburban philly, which is an area Obama will do quite well in.
That's interesting, can you find the link...I havent seen that on the local newspaper sites...but I'd be interested to read about it.
