After all this recent Obama hubub...

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Well?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

No. I used to think he was a much more dangerous, but I've realized the potential for more skeletons in his closet is much higher than Hillary. We already know most of what we need to know about her.

[Meeker]

The potential for a big Obama win is higher than for a big Hillary win... but the potential for a big Obama loss is also higher than for a big Hillary loss. High stakes electoral gambling!

[J. J.]

If this had happened in any time after late September in an McCain/Obama race, and Obama handled it the same way, it would have been fatal.

[Sam Spade]

Well, I've been saying no after his March 5 performance.  

But meekermariner is correct, it's all about a risk-reward strategy - Obama gives the chance of a larger victory, but also the chance of a larger loss (or a loss in general).  After March 5, I believe that the risk now outweighs the reward.  And after the Wright thingy, the chance of a larger victory may be gone too (too early to tell).

[Smash255]

yes

[Brittain33]

The potential for a big Obama win is higher than for a big Hillary win... but the potential for a big Obama loss is also higher than for a big Hillary loss. High stakes electoral gambling!

Yup, this is why I voted for Clinton in the primary. I also think she'd make a better President, too, but this is why I wasn't swayed by the promise of a fresh start blah blah blah.

[MODU]

If this had happened in any time after late September in an McCain/Obama race, and Obama handled it the same way, it would have been fatal.

Actually, I think it might have the opposite reaction.  Right now, we're still "learning" who Obama is.  By September, he would be an established personality and the release of these tapes could be viewed as a last-minute "gotcha," possibly backfiring on whomever released them and giving Obama a boost going into October and possibly November.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's still too early to tell what long term effect this has, but if you take a look at the Rasmussen tracking poll, McCain has gained about the same amount on both Hillary and Obama this month, so whatever effect it has looks to be hurting the Democrats in general instead of Obama in particular.

[Nym90]

The latest Realclearpolitics averages have McCain up 1 on Clinton and 1.4 on Obama. That's too close to be of any value.

Obama was consistently doing better in RCP averages before, though. Also hard to say if the above numbers are fully factoring in the Wright controversy as some polls may have been taken before it (of course, the current numbers could be unnaturally unkind to Obama due to said controversy as well....some people who have turned away from him now may come back to him once it gets shoved off the front page and people remember again that the economy is heading towards a possible depression and the war is costing us several billion dollars per week).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Even after all this, Obama still seems the better candidate to take on McCain in November.

[Gustaf]

Actually, I definitely think Clinton is the stronger candidate, ceteri paribus. Given the path that remains for her to the nomination though I'm not too sure. If she has to get it in a what is percieved as an undemocratic fashion she will be weaker in the general.

[exopolitician]

Even after all this, Obama still seems the better candidate to take on McCain in November.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

No.  Never have so far either.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Both of them always had an equally likely chance of losing to their Republican opponent.

[JSojourner]

Both of them always had an equally likely chance of losing to their Republican opponent.

I agree.  I am gonna work my ass off in the general.  Again.  But I really have my doubts either one can beat McCain. My guy, Dodd, couldn't have either.  Biden, probably.  Richardson would have definitely beaten McCain --- IF --- he knew how to debate.  I am still aghast at how poorly he acquitted himself in the debates and on the stump.  He was just plain awful.

McCain is gonna win this thing -- UNLESS -- the Democrats run a flawless campaign and play serious hardball with the guy.  Or he's found in bed with a live boy or a dead woman.

I'll just spend four years saying, "At least he's not Bush."  :-)

[Person Man]

Both of them always had an equally likely chance of losing to their Republican opponent.

I agree.  I am gonna work my ass off in the general.  Again.  But I really have my doubts either one can beat McCain. My guy, Dodd, couldn't have either.  Biden, probably.  Richardson would have definitely beaten McCain --- IF --- he knew how to debate.  I am still aghast at how poorly he acquitted himself in the debates and on the stump.  He was just plain awful.

McCain is gonna win this thing -- UNLESS -- the Democrats run a flawless campaign and play serious hardball with the guy.  Or he's found in bed with a live boy or a dead woman.

I'll just spend four years saying, "At least he's not Bush."  :-)

...or is he. ...and if we can't win at this point, we can just forget about the White House until we get in a depression or worse.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yes. IMO, an incident in March won't sink him.

[Lincoln Republican]

Ultimately, Clinton would be a stronger candidate against McCain in the general election.

My preference is a general election between McCain and Obama, as McCain has a higher chance of defeating Obama than he does of defeating Clinton.

Obama's inexperience and past statements would come back to haunt him in the election, and who knows what other shoes could drop about Obama during the course of the campaign.

[2952-0-0]

Ultimately, Clinton would be a stronger candidate against McCain in the general election.

My preference is a general election between McCain and Obama, as McCain has a higher chance of defeating Obama than he does of defeating Clinton.

Obama's inexperience and past statements would come back to haunt him in the election, and who knows what other shoes could drop about Obama during the course of the campaign.

However, McCain confusing Iran with al Qaida will definitely hurt him when he's trying to sell himself as a foreign policy wonk.