Mississippi results thread

[Alcon]

New correct CD-04 numbers (although they removed Perry again???)

40,089 Clinton
39,470 Obama

Jackson still part out and I have to figure out Jasper.  Marion may be a wash if I've got the precincts down correctly.

Do those numbers include Perry?

[Sam Spade]

New correct CD-04 numbers (although they removed Perry again???)

40,089 Clinton
39,470 Obama

Jackson still part out and I have to figure out Jasper.  Marion may be a wash if I've got the precincts down correctly.

Do those numbers include Perry?

Yes, which is the reason why I questioned it, although as I said Perry and Greene are similar.

The Jasper part of CD-03 (15/23 precincts) will be less Obama than Jasper as a whole, but not by that much. (instead of 70-30, probably 65-35, maybe 60-40)

I want to relook at Marion in a second.

[Alcon]

Perry's back - 1,072-736, if that's different at all.

[Torie]

Hopefully this looks better. Manual inputs are dangerous.

clarke      1960   972
Forrest      5,552   3584
george      484   1,632
greene      711   1,149
Hancock      1,255   2,836
harrison      9,762   8,070
jackson      8,146   6,315
jones      4474   5,388
lamar      1,943   3,213
pearl river   1,507   2,750
Perry      736   1072
stone      890   1,293
wayne      2,050   1815
         
         
      39,470   40,089
         
         
Jasper      2774   1172
Marion      2234   1788

[7,052,770]

Gregg Harper earns the second slot in the MS-03 run-off. It's actually kind of hilarious because Landrum was the odds on favorite for the seat (he spent $500,000 of his own money) until we found out that he hadn't voted in five years. Oops

That's funny about Landrum, but I'm absolutely sick that Randy Eads lost the Democratic side of the district 3 primary...my pledge to always vote Democratic for Congress is going to be tested

[Democratic Hawk]

So, despite 'talk' that African-Americans could comprise 60 to 70 per cent of the primary vote, am I to take it that this split is right?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225989

White 48% / Black 50%

Dave

[exopolitician]

Whats up with Claiborne?

[J. J.]

CNN just reported it at 59%  for Obamawith 91% in.  They give Obama Six net delegates.  I think it's a +12 for elected delegates for Clinton for the month

LOL.

Ohio +9 Hillary
Rhode Island +5 Hillary
Vermont +3 Obama
Texas +4 Hillary
Texas Caucus +9 Obama
Wyoming +2 Obama
Mississippi +6 Obama

+2 Obama overall.

Last estimate +3 for Obama out of Texas, by Erc, with the caucuses.  Slight gain for Hillary, but a definite stop of momentum for Obama.  I'm not ready to call him toast by a long shot, the next three become critical.  And the race goes on.

[Sam Spade]

Hopefully this looks better. Manual inputs are dangerous.

clarke      1960   972
wayne      1815   2,050
jones      4474   5,388
wayne      2,050   1815
Forrest      5,552   3584
Perry      736   1072
greene      711   1,149
pearl river   1,507   2,750
stone      890   1,293
george      484   1,632
Hancock      1,255   2,836
harrison      9,762   8,070
jackson      8,146   6,315
         
         
      39,342   38,926
         
marion      2234   1788
Jasper      2774   1172

I just noticed.  Wayne is switched.  Plus you're missing Lamar.  Let me re-add my numbers.

I still think the part of Jasper included is enough (plus Jackson remainders).  Marion appears to be a wash, but I'm kinda just extrapolating from the 2007 Governor's race (large Barbour margin - white area, large Eaves margin - black area, may not be exactly on the money however).

[Alcon]

I'm assuming the GOP in Noxubee County is a typo?  McCain at 44%

[Sam Spade]

Well, Jackson just switched to 100% and the numbers didn't change, so in CD-04, that gives us:

40,089 Hillary
39,470 Obama

Marion: 2,234 Obama, 1,788 Clinton
Jasper: 2,774 Obama, 1,172 Clinton

CD-03 is 13 of the 26 precincts in Marion, and I suspect the placement of the precincts may make it a wash.  In Jasper, the number is 15/23, but should probably lean somewhat more Clinton than the county as a whole.

I suspect Obama has enough to pick it up from these two counties, but I'm not placing bets yet, especially with the way Mississippi numbers tend to change strangely.

So it's either 19-14 Obama or 18-15 Obama.  Whichever...  What would it take for CD-02 to hit 6-1 - I don't think it's there, just curious...

[Torie]

Well, Jackson just switched to 100% and the numbers didn't change, so in CD-04, that gives us:

40,089 Hillary
39,470 Obama

Marion: 2,234 Obama, 1,788 Clinton
Jasper: 2,774 Obama, 1,172 Clinton

CD-03 is 13 of the 26 precincts in Marion, and I suspect the placement of the precincts may make it a wash.  In Jasper, the number is 15/23, but should probably lean somewhat more Clinton than the county as a whole.

I suspect Obama has enough to pick it up from these two counties, but I'm not placing bets yet, especially with the way Mississippi numbers tend to change strangely.

So it's either 19-14 Obama or 18-15 Obama.  Whichever...  What would it take for CD-02 to hit 6-1 - I don't think it's there, just curious...

On can do the math. Obama is behind by 619, and Obama was ahead by 1602 in Jasper, and 446 in Marion.  It will be tough for Clinton.
My numbers finally agree with yours.

[Meeker]

I'm assuming the GOP in Noxubee County is a typo?  McCain at 44%

I was just trying to figure that out too. NY Times has the same numbers, so if it's an error it's from the county.

[Democratic Hawk]

strangely.

So it's either 19-14 Obama or 18-15 Obama

And either way, like with AL, Clinton performs better with delegates than her overall share of the vote would suggest

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Well, Jackson just switched to 100% and the numbers didn't change, so in CD-04, that gives us:

40,089 Hillary
39,470 Obama

Marion: 2,234 Obama, 1,788 Clinton
Jasper: 2,774 Obama, 1,172 Clinton

CD-03 is 13 of the 26 precincts in Marion, and I suspect the placement of the precincts may make it a wash.  In Jasper, the number is 15/23, but should probably lean somewhat more Clinton than the county as a whole.

I suspect Obama has enough to pick it up from these two counties, but I'm not placing bets yet, especially with the way Mississippi numbers tend to change strangely.

So it's either 19-14 Obama or 18-15 Obama.  Whichever...  What would it take for CD-02 to hit 6-1 - I don't think it's there, just curious...

My numbers finally agree with yours.

Excellent.

I now note:  Wyoming was the last caucus of the season this last Saturday (unless you count Guam).

Now:  Mississippi is the last 10%+ black population state left in the primaries, with the lone (notable) exception of North Carolina (21.4%).

[Democratic Hawk]

My prediction was basically dead on (61%-37%). I'm getting pretty good at this.

Dead-on even

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MS

Dave

[Alcon]

Remaining votes:

Claiborne - 100%
Hinds - 1%
Oktibbeha - 5%

Moral of story: Obama breaks 60%, no real question whatsoever.  Claiborne is 84% black.  We go to sleep.

[Eraserhead]

My prediction was basically dead on (61%-37%). I'm getting pretty good at this.

Dead-on even

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MS

Dave

Nice. It looks like CNN's exit poll is still too pro-Clinton. That should change shortly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

CNN just reported it at 59%  for Obamawith 91% in.  They give Obama Six net delegates.  I think it's a +12 for elected delegates for Clinton for the month

LOL.

Ohio +9 Hillary
Rhode Island +5 Hillary
Vermont +3 Obama
Texas +4 Hillary
Texas Caucus +9 Obama
Wyoming +2 Obama
Mississippi +6 Obama

+2 Obama overall.

Last estimate +3 for Obama out of Texas, by Erc, with the caucuses.  Slight gain for Hillary, but a definite stop of momentum for Obama.  I'm not ready to call him toast by a long shot, the next three become critical.  And the race goes on.

I used Clinton News Networks' numbers for the Texas caucus.

Not ready to call Obama toast? LOL. Even considering that he might be toast (in other words it's completely impossible for him to win the nomination) is hackery of the downright insane degree.

[Alcon]

Claiborne County in 80/20

With 1% of Hinds, 5% of Oktibbeha and 6% of Tishomingo, looks like our final margin will be Obama +24 (or +23 - too lazy to do the percentages.  Whatever)

[Angel of Death]

What should be the most important news item coming from this primary, is that Obama added close to another 100,000 votes to his margin over Clinton. This *cannot* be spun away. <looks accusingly at J. J.>

[Verily]

What should be the most important news item coming from this primary, is that Obama added close to another 100,000 votes to his margin over Clinton. This *cannot* be spun away. <looks accusingly at J. J.>

Oh, but Obama is toast: a quality quote from TODAY, no less.

[Aizen]

Do many of the Feb. 5th states feel stupid now? They moved their primaries/caucuses up and ended up getting less attention than Wyoming/Wisconsin/Mississippi etc.

[Sam Spade]

Well, I'm just waiting right now for Al to produce a race/race map concerning Mississippi... 

Overall, it looks to me like the lily-white counties in the South chose to play in the Republican primary more than the lily-white counties in the North, even though the Southern counties are slightly more white, thus leading to a slight Obama win in CD-04, as opposed to a loss in CD-01. 

It is odd because CD-04 primary was not contested, whereas CD-01 was open, but maybe not necessarily as odd because I think of NE Mississippi kind of connects to northern Alabama, where white Democrats still exist (as opposed to the South)

[Franzl]

CNN just reported it at 59%  for Obamawith 91% in.  They give Obama Six net delegates.  I think it's a +12 for elected delegates for Clinton for the month

LOL.

Ohio +9 Hillary
Rhode Island +5 Hillary
Vermont +3 Obama
Texas +4 Hillary
Texas Caucus +9 Obama
Wyoming +2 Obama
Mississippi +6 Obama

+2 Obama overall.

how is that good news?

your hero obama could have easily put hillary away by winning texas.

he didnt.

And your hero Hillary could have easily put Obama away by winning Iowa or South Carolina