Mississippi results thread

[J. J.]

CNN just reported it at 59%  for Obamawith 91% in.  They give Obama Six net delegates.  I think it's a +12 for elected delegates for Clinton for the month

LOL.

Ohio +9 Hillary
Rhode Island +5 Hillary
Vermont +3 Obama
Texas +4 Hillary
Texas Caucus +9 Obama
Wyoming +2 Obama
Mississippi +6 Obama

+2 Obama overall.

how is that good news?

your hero obama could have easily put hillary away by winning texas.

he didnt.

And your hero Hillary could have easily put Obama away by winning Iowa or South Carolina

There have been three chances for Obama, the candidate with the momentum at the time, could have ended it.  NH, where he was expected to win.  Super Tuesday where it was closer, but still possible; he was expected to do better in CA.  March 4th, which should have been a win.  All three times, he's failed.  That ability was always his.

Now, at best, Obama is into a slug fest with Clinton until mid-May.  At worst, this isn't settled until late August.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I'm pleased that Obama did better than my prediction, 57%-42%. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results maps:

[Sam Spade]

Results maps:

Nice.

[Sam Spade]

Just for those curious, the one big white county (MS-03) that voted strongly Obama is Rankin County - suburban Jackson, where the whites tend to be more upper-income, Republican and chose to play in the Republican primary (close to twice as many people voted in the GOP primary).

[Erc]

Looking at the results (using CNN as a source here):

Statewide: Obama gets 62.1% of the 2-way vote, falling just short of picking up an extra pledged PLEO delegate.

CD 1 (excl. Webster, Winston Counties):
Clinton 51913 - 49012

All Precincts are in.

If every single Obama vote in Webster & Winston counties was cast in CD 1, while no Clinton votes were, Obama would win CD 1 by 89 votes.  Thus, we can safely call CD 1 for Clinton.

CD 2 (excl. Hinds, Leake, Madison):
Obama 53775 - 19073 (73.8% obama)

Key %ages here: 64.3% Obama gets him 5-2, 78.6% gets him 6 - 1.

Best case Obama: (Hinds, Leake, Madison votes perfectly gerrymandered): 84.6% Obama
Best case Clinton: 62.7% Obama

A more realistic scenario (just count Hinds, Leake, and Madison as being entirely in CD 2 as they nearly are anyway) gives Obama 76.4%.  So it seems that he gets 5 - 2 here, though it's possible he gets 6 - 1 if the parts of Hinds, Leake, and Madison not in CD 2 contain the vast majority of the white vote.

1% of Hinds is yet to report.

CD 3 (excl. split counties):

53237 - 25874 Obama (67.3% Obama)  [what happened here?]

5% of Oktibbeha is yet to report.

Looks like 3 - 2 Obama....closer to 4 - 1 than I'd have thought, but unless CD 3 has more of Hinds than I thought, it doesn't look likely.

CD 4 (excl. split counties):
34996 Obama - 34701 Clinton

The split counties of note here are Jones (mostly in CD 4, with some in 3, 914 Clinton majority), Jasper (split with CD 3, 1602 Obama majority), Marion (split with CD 3, 446 Obama majority)

Looks like Obama's going to hang on to a tight (<500 vote) lead here, though if those 3 counties are perniciously gerrymandered, who knows.

[Sam Spade]

Erc, I think the Marion/Jasper precincts are more favorable to Clinton than the actual numbers, but probably not enough.  Moreover, CD-03 has 13/26 precincts in Marion and 15/23 precincts in Jasper, which are the key numbers

The number of precincts in Jones not in CD-03 is only 3/47 and look to me to be two rural precincts and a highly black precinct.  So probably a slight gain for Clinton, could be as many as 50 votes, probably less.

[Franzl]

CNN just reported it at 59%  for Obamawith 91% in.  They give Obama Six net delegates.  I think it's a +12 for elected delegates for Clinton for the month

LOL.

Ohio +9 Hillary
Rhode Island +5 Hillary
Vermont +3 Obama
Texas +4 Hillary
Texas Caucus +9 Obama
Wyoming +2 Obama
Mississippi +6 Obama

+2 Obama overall.

how is that good news?

your hero obama could have easily put hillary away by winning texas.

he didnt.

And your hero Hillary could have easily put Obama away by winning Iowa or South Carolina

There have been three chances for Obama, the candidate with the momentum at the time, could have ended it.  NH, where he was expected to win.  Super Tuesday where it was closer, but still possible; he was expected to do better in CA.  March 4th, which should have been a win.  All three times, he's failed.  That ability was always his.

Now, at best, Obama is into a slug fest with Clinton until mid-May.  At worst, this isn't settled until late August.

I disagree that March 4th should have been a win. Just because he gained momentum in the weeks prior to that contest, doesn't mean that Clinton still wasn't heavily favored. I admit that I expected a win in the final days, but I wouldn't say that Obama "missed it". You can argue the same way about contests that Hillary could/should have won, as an argument for why she should have finished off Obama.

[Mr. Morden]

And note the influx of Republicans in this primary, and how their voting breakdown differs from previous Southern primaries:

[Sam Spade]

The important note in that figure is that white Democrats didn't vote any differently than white Republicans who crossed over.  It merely helped Clinton not lose anywhere between 1-3 more delegates. 

Moreover, nowadays, there's a lot less Democratic affiliation among whites in Mississippi than there would be in Louisiana and Alabama.  Not as bad as South Carolina, but getting there.

And this % will only get uglier in a general election.  Much uglier once all the white Republicans get involved.

[Sam Spade]

Amusing exit poll stat of the evening:

John McCain favorables among Clinton supporters: Favorable 58%, Unfavorable 42%.
Clinton supporters satisfied if Obama wins nomination: Satisfied 28%, Dissatisfied 72%

The beauties of racial voting...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

John McCain favorables among Clinton supporters: Favorable 58%, Unfavorable 42%.

Proof that she is the more Republican candidate.

[Sam Spade]

John McCain favorables among Clinton supporters: Favorable 58%, Unfavorable 42%.

Proof that she is the more Republican candidate.

I think it's proof that she is the white candidate, but we already knew this.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's my favorite stat from the exit polls.  If my algebra is correct:

14% of Clinton voters would be dissatisfied if Clinton wins the nomination.

2% of Obama voters would be dissatisfied if Obama wins the nomination.

A lot of this could be mischief making crossover GOP voters.  Alternatively, it could just be Democrats who wish they had other choices.  (The racist and sexist vote?)

[jesmo]

Results maps:

Nice.

Those counties in Northeastern Mississippi and a few in southern Mississippi look absolutely beautiful. About as beautiful as rural Tennessee, Missouri and all of Arkansas. The West Virginia Map will look beautiful also.

[Sam Spade]

Results maps:

Nice.

Those counties in Northeastern Mississippi and a few in southern Mississippi look absolutely beautiful. About as beautiful as rural Tennessee, Missouri and all of Arkansas. The West Virginia Map will look beautiful also.

Are you a negro, James?

[Alcon]

Here's my favorite stat from the exit polls.  If my algebra is correct:

14% of Clinton voters would be dissatisfied if Clinton wins the nomination.

2% of Obama voters would be dissatisfied if Obama wins the nomination.

A lot of this could be mischief making crossover GOP voters.  Alternatively, it could just be Democrats who wish they had other choices.  (The racist and sexist vote?)

I noticed that too It seems odd that such a substantial number of even strategic voters would say they are dissatisfied if their strategic vote won the nod...

And I doubt 14% of Clinton votes were strategic (that would be about half of the GOP + indy votes), so, well, hah.

[Joe Republic]

Those counties in Northeastern Mississippi and a few in southern Mississippi look absolutely beautiful. About as beautiful as rural Tennessee, Missouri and all of Arkansas. The West Virginia Map will look beautiful also.

Are you a negro, James?

I think his boyfriend is, IIRC.

[Lief 🗽]

Here's my favorite stat from the exit polls.  If my algebra is correct:

14% of Clinton voters would be dissatisfied if Clinton wins the nomination.

2% of Obama voters would be dissatisfied if Obama wins the nomination.

A lot of this could be mischief making crossover GOP voters.  Alternatively, it could just be Democrats who wish they had other choices.  (The racist and sexist vote?)

Actually, if I remember correctly, I've seen a lot of 10%+ Clinton voters who would be dissatisfied if Clinton wins the nomination in past exit polls as well. I have no idea what it means (Republican cross-overs screwing things up? people who think she can best beat McCain even if they don't like her? people who don't necessarily like her but hate Obama?).

[Sam Spade]

Those counties in Northeastern Mississippi and a few in southern Mississippi look absolutely beautiful. About as beautiful as rural Tennessee, Missouri and all of Arkansas. The West Virginia Map will look beautiful also.

Are you a negro, James?

I think his boyfriend is, IIRC.

Ah ha!  Good catch.

[jesmo]

Results maps:

Nice.

Those counties in Northeastern Mississippi and a few in southern Mississippi look absolutely beautiful. About as beautiful as rural Tennessee, Missouri and all of Arkansas. The West Virginia Map will look beautiful also.

Are you a negro, James?

Uh, no, not really. 1/16th.

I am white, and proudly an Obama opponent. I was referring to how beautiful the red Democratic primary counties are. They are the enlightened counties.

[Smash255]

Results maps:

Nice.

Those counties in Northeastern Mississippi and a few in southern Mississippi look absolutely beautiful. About as beautiful as rural Tennessee, Missouri and all of Arkansas. The West Virginia Map will look beautiful also.

Are you a negro, James?

Uh, no, not really. 1/16th.

I am white, and proudly an Obama opponent. I was referring to how beautiful the red Democratic primary counties are. They are the enlightened counties.

Ahh thats right, nothing is more beautiful than racisim.....

[Sam Spade]

Results maps:

Nice.

Those counties in Northeastern Mississippi and a few in southern Mississippi look absolutely beautiful. About as beautiful as rural Tennessee, Missouri and all of Arkansas. The West Virginia Map will look beautiful also.

Are you a negro, James?

Uh, no, not really. 1/16th.

I am white, and proudly an Obama opponent. I was referring to how beautiful the red Democratic primary counties are. They are the enlightened counties.

Is your father or mother the octaroon?  Or do you know?

[jesmo]

Results maps:

Nice.

Those counties in Northeastern Mississippi and a few in southern Mississippi look absolutely beautiful. About as beautiful as rural Tennessee, Missouri and all of Arkansas. The West Virginia Map will look beautiful also.

Are you a negro, James?

Uh, no, not really. 1/16th.

I am white, and proudly an Obama opponent. I was referring to how beautiful the red Democratic primary counties are. They are the enlightened counties.

Is your father or mother the octaroon?  Or do you know?

Father.

Now lets get back on topic.

My friend will have her detailed analysis of every primary thus far up later.

[Sam Spade]

Results maps:

Nice.

Those counties in Northeastern Mississippi and a few in southern Mississippi look absolutely beautiful. About as beautiful as rural Tennessee, Missouri and all of Arkansas. The West Virginia Map will look beautiful also.

Are you a negro, James?

Uh, no, not really. 1/16th.

I am white, and proudly an Obama opponent. I was referring to how beautiful the red Democratic primary counties are. They are the enlightened counties.

Is your father or mother the octaroon?  Or do you know?

Father.

Now lets get back on topic.

My friend will have her detailed analysis of every primary thus far up later.

Ok, that's great.  Just so long as she's not an eco-terrorist, ok?