Mississippi results thread

[Erc]

The white-majority districts in MS (1, 3, and 4) are 5 delegates a piece...so whoever wins them gets 3 to the loser's 2 (no-one's breaking 70%).

CD 2 is 7 delegates, which requires Obama to get 64.3% of the two-way vote to win.

Scanning this thread, it seems that Obama's won CDs 3 & 4, no question...

Any further updates on the margin in CDs 1 & 2?

[Erc]

My present results for CD-01 are 51,169 Clinton to 48,663 Obama, not counting the tiny sliver of Winston (only 23% in).

The counties left are Tishomingo (Clinton), Prentiss (Clinton), Panola (Obama), Choctaw (Obama slightly - small), Clay (Obama).

Barring something weird, I'd predict Clinton takes CD-01.

I've got similar, 51204 - 49046 at a first glance.  Final count, 19 - 14 Obama, not unexpected.

[Erc]

My present results for CD-01 are 51,169 Clinton to 48,663 Obama, not counting the tiny sliver of Winston (only 23% in).

The counties left are Tishomingo (Clinton), Prentiss (Clinton), Panola (Obama), Choctaw (Obama slightly - small), Clay (Obama).

Barring something weird, I'd predict Clinton takes CD-01.

I've got similar, 51204 - 49046 at a first glance.  Final count, 19 - 14 Obama, not unexpected.

What was the distribution in CD-02 and statewide, Erc.

Which parts of Marion and Jasper County are in CD-03.  It'll be a razor-tight Obama win, if my math is correct, but he's probably going to need those two slivers.

I never did a full count of CD-02...but just given what he seemed to be getting (>65% in the vast majority of counties), it looks like he'll get 5 - 2 there.  4-3 and 2-2 in the statewide count, and I assume he won CD's 3 & 4.

Depending on the TX caucus results, looks like Clinton won this month in pledged delegates by the impressive margin of 208 - 207.

[Erc]

Looking at the results (using CNN as a source here):

Statewide: Obama gets 62.1% of the 2-way vote, falling just short of picking up an extra pledged PLEO delegate.

CD 1 (excl. Webster, Winston Counties):
Clinton 51913 - 49012

All Precincts are in.

If every single Obama vote in Webster & Winston counties was cast in CD 1, while no Clinton votes were, Obama would win CD 1 by 89 votes.  Thus, we can safely call CD 1 for Clinton.

CD 2 (excl. Hinds, Leake, Madison):
Obama 53775 - 19073 (73.8% obama)

Key %ages here: 64.3% Obama gets him 5-2, 78.6% gets him 6 - 1.

Best case Obama: (Hinds, Leake, Madison votes perfectly gerrymandered): 84.6% Obama
Best case Clinton: 62.7% Obama

A more realistic scenario (just count Hinds, Leake, and Madison as being entirely in CD 2 as they nearly are anyway) gives Obama 76.4%.  So it seems that he gets 5 - 2 here, though it's possible he gets 6 - 1 if the parts of Hinds, Leake, and Madison not in CD 2 contain the vast majority of the white vote.

1% of Hinds is yet to report.

CD 3 (excl. split counties):

53237 - 25874 Obama (67.3% Obama)  [what happened here?]

5% of Oktibbeha is yet to report.

Looks like 3 - 2 Obama....closer to 4 - 1 than I'd have thought, but unless CD 3 has more of Hinds than I thought, it doesn't look likely.

CD 4 (excl. split counties):
34996 Obama - 34701 Clinton

The split counties of note here are Jones (mostly in CD 4, with some in 3, 914 Clinton majority), Jasper (split with CD 3, 1602 Obama majority), Marion (split with CD 3, 446 Obama majority)

Looks like Obama's going to hang on to a tight (<500 vote) lead here, though if those 3 counties are perniciously gerrymandered, who knows.

[Erc]

The MS SoS website now has a verified breakdown for Madison County (split between CDs 2 & 3)

CD 2: 6212 - 1144 Obama
CD 3: 4049 - 1860 Obama

Unsurprisingly, the CD 2 section is much more strongly in favor of Obama.

[Erc]

A full breakdown for Jasper Co. is now available:

In CD 3:
1026 - 411 Obama

In CD 4:
1833 - 791 Obama

This means, in CD 4, Obama is now up 36,895 to 35,573 (margin of 1322) excluding Jones & Marion counties.

Jones County is mostly in CD 4, and Clinton has a margin of 914 votes there.
Marion County is split rather evenly with CD 3, and Obama has a margin of 446 votes there.

So that margin of 1322 votes is going to get narrower, but it looks as if (unless there's some really lucky gerrymandering) Obama is still going to squeak this one out.

[Erc]

Enough Winston county precinct results have come in to guarantee that it is now a mathematical impossibility for Obama to win CD 1.

[Erc]

Woah, this makes no sense for Noxubee:

 John McCain 44.04%
 Fred Thompson 11.44%
 Tom Tancredo 9.73%
 Mitt Romney 9.00%
 Ron Paul 8.27%
 Mike Huckabee 5.84%
 Alan Keyes 5.60%
 Duncan Hunter 3.89%
 Rudolph W. Giuliani 2.19%


Is this Tancredo's highest county %?  How about Keyes?  Hell, Hunter's?

I believe Alcon called them up to find out what was going on, and apparently it's not a typo.  They have no clue, either.  Final results from Noxubee haven't been certified yet, though I'd like to see them when they are.

[Erc]

By my back of the envelop calculations (it could be off by a few votes), Obama carried the 4th CD portion of Marion by 624 votes, or larger than his margin in the county of 460 votes (Clinton carried the 3rd CD portion of the county), so Obama has a win of the 4th CD.

Yup.  Marion was apparently split up the exact opposite way than what Clinton needed.  With Marion reporting, all that's needed now is Jones county (plus a breakdown in Morris precinct in Marion county, which is apparently split over 2 CDs [Obama won the precinct 277-166]).

Clinton is down 1848 votes in CD 4 at the moment.  She has a 914 vote lead in Jones county (which is split with CD 3) and a 111 vote deficit in Morris precinct.  So, barring some feat of gerrymandering of Jones county, Obama's got CD 4.