Early Polls Don't Really Mean Much.

[MAS117]

oh lol

[© tweed]

Miami,

It's WAY too early to make any statements about how good a President George W. Bush will be. However, if Democracy takes hold in Iraq and Afghanistan, there's a good possibility that it will spread to other Middle Eastern nations. If that happens, how do you think history will treat Bush as a President about 50 years down the road? Please be objective now...you're one of the few Dems on this site I would trust to give an honest, objective answer to a question like this.

Listen, these deficits that Bush is running up are higher than they were in the Reagan years!  National Debt keeps increasing.  And, Bush is the only president since Herbert Hoover to lose jobs.  Bush is one of the least fiscally responsible presidents in history, even ahead of Reagan.

[Gustaf]

This is where Bush is in comparison to 1996 (both Gallup):

(2004)
2/6-8 (Bush-Kerry-Undecided): 49-48-3
1/29 - 2/1 (Bush-Kerry-Undecided): 46-53-1
1/9-11 (Bush-Kerry-Undecided): 55-43-2

(1996)
3/15-17 (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 54-42-4
3/8-10 (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 54-42-4
2/23-25 (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 56-40-4
1/26-29 (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 54-42-4
1/12-15  (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 48-49-3
1/5-7  (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 46-49-5

Clinton did benefit from a tough GOP primary fight.  Bush doesn't really get that benefit.

Are comparing Bush to Clinton b/c of incumbency, or to Dole b/c of being Republican? I am guessing the former, that makes more sense, but it's still something to remember.

[© tweed]

I don't think Bush will win like Clinton did in 1996.

[Gustaf]

I don't think Bush will win like Clinton did in 1996.

No, probably not. This election might be a little unique, actually. When was the last time we had an election where one candidate won clearly, but not overwhelmingly in the PV, and did likeise in the EV?

[© tweed]

And, if Kerry wins, it will be the first time a Dem has won the oval office without taking 5 southern states.

[Gustaf]

I don't think Bush will win like Clinton did in 1996.

No, probably not. This election might be a little unique, actually. When was the last time we had an election where one candidate won clearly, but not overwhelmingly in the PV, and did likeise in the EV?

1992. Slightly less clearly in the PV (6 points instead of eicht), slightly less clearly in the EV (12 votes less)

Clinton got 68% of the EV. That's not close, His percentage margin was 37% in the EV, as compared to 6% in the PV.

[© tweed]

Perot's impact kinda messed up 1992, but not so much 1996.

[Gustaf]

Perot's impact kinda messed up 1992, but not so much 1996.

It did, but it needn't really impact the relation between Clinton's PV margin and his EV margin.

[Gustaf]

But that applies for 1996 as well, so what's your point? "Clearly but not overwhelmingly", you called his 1996 margin. If that's true then, it's true in 1992 also. Or am I misunderstanding something?

I think so. I see how my quote might have messed things up. What I meant was that if Bush beats Kerry 52-48 or something like that, and wins the EV roughly 308-230, that would be kind of unique, with the EV percentages resmebling the PV one, and the election being pretty close.

[Gustaf]

But that applies for 1996 as well, so what's your point? "Clearly but not overwhelmingly", you called his 1996 margin. If that's true then, it's true in 1992 also. Or am I misunderstanding something?

I think so. I see how my quote might have messed things up. What I meant was that if Bush beats Kerry 52-48 or something like that, and wins the EV roughly 308-230, that would be kind of unique, with the EV percentages resmebling the PV one, and the election being pretty close.

Ah yes. I thought you'd called 1996 unique. After all, 1980 had a similar PV margin and a much larger EV one...

Yeah, the quote was dum, I was talking about the coming election.

[12th Doctor]

I don't think Bush will win like Clinton did in 1996.

No, probably not. This election might be a little unique, actually. When was the last time we had an election where one candidate won clearly, but not overwhelmingly in the PV, and did likeise in the EV?

Carter v Ford 76

[Gustaf]

I don't think Bush will win like Clinton did in 1996.

No, probably not. This election might be a little unique, actually. When was the last time we had an election where one candidate won clearly, but not overwhelmingly in the PV, and did likeise in the EV?

Carter v Ford 76

True, but that was a very close election. True though, that it's the last time that PV and EV were close to each other. They seldom are...