Henley By-Election

[Silent Hunter]

Well, I might as well start it...

[Ben.]

Is it strange that I'm more worried about Conservative prospects here than in Crewe?... seems far more fertile territory for the LibDems and a seat they've no doubt been keeping tabs on for some time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it strange that I'm more worried about Conservative prospects here than in Crewe?...

Yes. This is one of the richest parts of the country and we've seenvery recently quite how well the Tories are doing in the various commuterbelts. It would take skill to lose this one right now.

[afleitch]

Stanley Johnson may try his hand here.

[Ben.]

Is it strange that I'm more worried about Conservative prospects here than in Crewe?...

Yes. This is one of the richest parts of the country and we've seenvery recently quite how well the Tories are doing in the various commuterbelts. It would take skill to lose this one right now.

But what about the big scary LibDems, with their barcharts and legions of activists!?

Lets remember what happened in the last by-election in a 'safe conservative seat' - then again the near disaster in Bromely seems to have had a lot to do with the local association and was at a time when the Conservatives were not doing nearly so well as now, still its a worry. 

[Verily]

Well, the Lib Dems start higher in Henley than they did in Bromley (and in second), but the Labour vote is somewhat smaller as well. Still, if you put the base as the last time Henley didn't have an incumbent, in 2001, it's not a completely safe situation for the Tories and depends heavily on whom they select to run.

[Harry Hayfield]

Henley 2005
Boris Johnson (Conservative) 24,894 (53.49%)
David Turner (Liberal Democrats) 12,101 (26.00%)
Kalem Saeed (Labour) 6,862 (14.74%)
Mark Stevenson (Green) 1,518 (3.26%)
Delphine Gray-Fisk (United Kingdom Independence Party) 1,162 (2.49%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 12,793 (27.49%)

It should be noted that when you apply the average swings in the 4 English by-elections so far to Henley, you get the following:

Conservatives 15,330 (49.19%)
Liberal Democrats 10,544 (33.83)
Labour 3,151 (10.11%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,292 (4.14%)
Green 845 (2.71%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 4,786 (15.36%) on a turnout of 45%

By the way, wasn't there a rumour he wasn't going to stand down now?

[Verily]

Somehow, I don't think Ealing Southall or Sedgefield is particularly more applicable to Henley than Dunfermline and West Fife, Livingston or Blaenau Gwent (Cheadle and Bromley and Chislehurst being at least somewhat similar).

[Verily]

Rumor is that Stanley Johnson, Boris Johnson's father and long-ago MEP, will stand in Henley. He had a very disappointing run at Teignbridge in 2005. He's 67 years old.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Rumor is that Stanley Johnson, Boris Johnson's father and long-ago MEP, will stand in Henley. He had a very disappointing run at Teignbridge in 2005. He's 67 years old.

YES