UK Local Elections : May 1st 2008

[Harry Hayfield]

Estimated Council Declaration Times (from the Press Association)
Overnight Counts

2330 BST: Broxbourne, Plymouth, Tamworth

2345 BST: Salford

0000 BST: Barnsley, Brentwood,Bury, Castle Point, Great Yarmouth, Ipswich, Kingston-upon-Hull, Maidstone, Manchester, Mole Valley,North East Lincolnshire, Norwich, Southend-on-Sea, Stevenage, Swale, Tunbridge Wells, West Lindsey, West Oxfordshire, Worcester

0030 BST: Harlow, Hart, Pendle

0100 BST: Basildon, Cannock Chase, Carlisle, Carmarthenshire, Chorley, Derby, Eastleigh, Elmbridge, Halton, Hartlepool, Havant, Huntingdonshire, Knowsley, Liverpool, Newport, North Hertfordshire, Nuneaton and Bedworth, Oxford,  Peterborough, Rochford, Rotherham, Rushmoor, Sandwell, Southampton, Stratford-on-Avon, Swansea, Tameside, Tandridge, Trafford, Weymouth and Portland, Wigan, Wirral, Woking

0130 BST: Doncaster, Exeter, Gosport, Isle of Anglesey, Oldham, Portsmouth, Runnymede, South Tyneside, Stockport, Stoke-on-Trent, Walsall, West Lancashire

0200 BST: Amber Valley, Basingstoke & Deane, Ceredigion, Daventry, Dudley, Durham, Fareham, Hyndburn,  Kirklees, Merthyr Tydfil, Neath Port Talbot, Preston, Rochdale, St Albans, St Helens, Sefton, Swindon, Thurrock, Torfaen, Waveney, Winchester, Wyre Forest

0230 BST: Bolton, Cambridge

0300 BST: Birmingham, Bridgend, Colchester, Coventry, Flintshire, Hastings, Lincoln, Northumberland

0330 BST: Monmouthshire

0400 BST: Blaenau Gwent, Cardiff, Warrington, Welwyn Hatfield

0500 BST: Barrow in Furness, Rugby

Friday Counts

1130 BST: Sunderland

1200 BST: Bradford, Burnley, Cherwell,  Craven, Crawley, Gateshead, Gloucester, Hertsmere, Leeds, Milton Keynes, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, North Tyneside, Reading, Redditch,  Rhondda, Cynon, Taff, Rossendale, South Lakeland, Stroud, Three Rivers, Vale of Glamorgan, Wakefield, Wokingham, Wolverhampton, Worthing

1300 BST: Caerphilly, Calderdale, Cheltenham, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Slough, Solihull

1330 BST: Bassetlaw

1400 BST: Adur, Epping Forest, Gwynedd, Powys, Purbeck, Reigate and Banstead, Sheffield, Watford, Wrexham

1500 BST: Blackburn with Darwen, Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Chester, Harrogate, South Cambridgeshire

1600 BST: Pembrokeshire

1700 BST: Conwy, Denbighshire

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quick note here as well: please do NOT start a certain thread tomorrow. There's a time and a place and... you know. Diolch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Someone has a brass neck... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/south_west/7352452.stm

[Harry Hayfield]

Local Elections Coverage (so far confirmed)

BBC One Network
12.05am - 6.00am Election Night 2008
Hosted by David Dimbleby, with Jermery Vine and the BBC political correspondents for Wales, London, the Midlands and the North West.

[afleitch]

Local Elections Coverage (so far confirmed)

BBC One Network
12.05am - 6.00am Election Night 2008
Hosted by David Dimbleby, with Jermery Vine and the BBC political correspondents for Wales, London, the Midlands and the North West.

I'll be at home this year Last year I hung about the count until the last machine packed in and called it a day. The plus side was I ended up passing luke warm tea to the media people and then having biscuits and watching the returns on the tv screens in the hall. One big happy family. Apart from 'those who shall not be named' not sitting with the rest of us. They hogged all the good seats, so much for being 'Christian'

Are you going to be at the count Harry?

[Harry Hayfield]

I'll be at home this year Last year I hung about the count until the last machine packed in and called it a day. The plus side was I ended up passing luke warm tea to the media people and then having biscuits and watching the returns on the tv screens in the hall. One big happy family. Apart from 'those who shall not be named' not sitting with the rest of us. They hogged all the good seats, so much for being 'Christian' Are you going to be at the count Harry?

I most certainly will be (with mobile phone switched to "wobble mode" whenever a ward in the Crewe and Nantwich constituency declares), based on what happened in 2004, Ciliau Aeron should be one of the first wards to declare (I expect before 11.30pm) and if I can find a way of texting the result to someone who's a member of this board, I can try and get the Ceredigion result by 1.00am.

[afleitch]

I'll be at home this year Last year I hung about the count until the last machine packed in and called it a day. The plus side was I ended up passing luke warm tea to the media people and then having biscuits and watching the returns on the tv screens in the hall. One big happy family. Apart from 'those who shall not be named' not sitting with the rest of us. They hogged all the good seats, so much for being 'Christian' Are you going to be at the count Harry?

I most certainly will be (with mobile phone switched to "wobble mode" whenever a ward in the Crewe and Nantwich constituency declares), based on what happened in 2004, Ciliau Aeron should be one of the first wards to declare (I expect before 11.30pm) and if I can find a way of texting the result to someone who's a member of this board, I can try and get the Ceredigion result by 1.00am.

I gave a radio interview to an Irish woman. I have no idea if it was ever broadcast

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I feel like randomly observing that I've hardly noticed any outward signs that there's an election on here. Of course the general area that I spend most of my time in (ie; Deiniol ward, the non-residential parts of Menai and Garth wards) are basically apolitical anyway, but even so... just two signs seen so far. Oddly enough both are for the Plaid underdog in the Menai ward (held by a rotating group of LibDems since the early '80's), but then the one house always has a Plaid sign up. Might have a poke round residential areas in the rest of the city tomorrow, but I probably won't. I'm also thinking about heading west to see whether Llais Gwynedd are really a threat to the established order here, but I do have a lot of work to be getting on with...

Oh yes. Results in Deiniol last time round:

Plaid 77, LDem 56, Labour 54. Turnout... 19%

lolz

[afleitch]

Wales should get STV Just think of the multi member wards!

(This seems to be the day for me saying stuff about STV)

[Harry Hayfield]

Wales should get STV Just think of the multi member wards!

(This seems to be the day for me saying stuff about STV)

We have two multi member wards in Ceredigion. Lampeter and Penparcau (both elect 2 members)

[Harry Hayfield]

UK National Vote Share Projection

The following data comes from the Parliamentary Research Paper for the years in question

2004: Con 38% (n/c) Lib Dems 29% (+3%) Lab 26% (-4%) Others 7% (+1%). Swing from Con to Lib Dem: 1.5%

2000: Con 38% (+9%) Lab 30% (-13%) Lib Dems 26% (+2%) Others 6% (+2%). Swing from Lab to Con: 11%

1996: Lab 43% (+13%) Con 29% (-17%) Lib Dem 24% (+4%) Others 4% (n/c). Swing from Con to Lab: 15%

1992: Con 46% (+7%) Lab 30% (-8%) Lib Dem 20% (+2%) Others 4% (-1%). Swing from Lab to Con: 7.5%

1988: Con 39% (+1%) Lab 38% (+1%) Lib Dem 18% (-3%) Others 5% (+1%). Neglible swing from Con to Lab

1984: Con 38% (-2%) Lab 37% (-5%) All 21% (+8%) Others 4% (-1%). Swing from Lab to Con: 1.5%

1980: Con 40% Lab 42% All 13% Others 5%

Average Vote Share 1980 - 2004
Conservatives 38%
Labour 35%
Liberal Democrats 22%
Others 5%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, not that again. I'm half tempted to randomly pick a couple of wards that I randomly declare to be "representative" and add the numbers up to produce a "national" share of the vote. It would (regrettably "would" here means "should") have as much credibility.

(for the record that's more-or-less what the BBC does. Gives them an easy story to lead on for the morning news programme and that's why they do it. In this case it will have the double role of filler between voting on Thursday and the London results on Friday afternoon or so. I think that I have complained about this at least once at some point at every round of local elections since I started to follow them closely... I'll... stop now I think...)

Oh. God.

This has just reminded me of something that I find even more irritating than the inevitable poll-of-wards.

All those irritating politicians (from all parties) who will invade the airwaves and tell us (and endlessly) one of the following lies lines:

a) these results are pretty good for a mid-term government, all things considered.
b) these results show that we are well on track to win the next election.
c) these results show that we are breaking the mould of british politics/that three party politics is alive and well and here to stay.

There will usually be random example results (often taken totally out of context) used to prove the above line as The Truth.

It doesn't matter what the actual results are, they will say all that anyway. And then we wonder why local government is such a joke in this country.

[Hash]

Ah, more useless national vote data for a local election.

[Harry Hayfield]

Well, here is one bit of local election data that can't be dismissed.

Ceredigion Local Elections 1987 - 2004
Districts 1987
Non Party Independent 9,637 (39.46%) winning 21 seats (13 unopposed)
Alliance 7,343 (30.05%) winning 14 seats (5 unopposed)
Independents 2,835 (11.60%) winning 3 seats (0 unopposed)
Plaid Cymru 1,871 (7.66%) winning 4 seats (1 unopposed)
Labour 1,739 (7.12%) winning 2 seats (0 unopposed)
Green 994 (4.07%) winnig 0 seats
Council Composition: NPI 21 All 14 Plaid 4 Ind 3 Lab 2
No Overall Control: NPI short by 2

Counties 1989
Plaid Cymru 5,350 (27.90%) winning 2 seats (Aber North, Llanbadarn Fawr)
Labour 4,495 (23.44%) winning 2 seats (Aber South, Lampeter)
Liberal Demcrats 3,891 (20.29%) winning 2 seats (Llansantffraid, Ystwyth)
Independents 3,842 (20.04%) winning 5 seats (Aberporth, Cardigan, Beulah, Borth, Lledrod (unopposed))
Non Party Independents 1173 (6.11%) winning 3 seats (Llandysiliogogo, Llandyfriog, Llanfihangel Ystrad (all unopposed)
Green 419 (2.18%) winning 0 seats
Ceredigion Delegation: Plaid 2 Lab 2 Lib Dem 2 Ind 5 NPI 3

(Districts 1991, Unitaries 1995, 1999, 2004 and Counties 1993 to follow)

[Harry Hayfield]

Districts 1991
Independents 9,030 (42.85%) winning 13 seats (6 unopposed)
Non Party Independents 4,113 (19.51%) winning 18 seats (13 unopposed)
Liberal Democrats 3,004 (14.25%) winning 9 seats (4 unopposed)
Plaid Cymru 2,538 (12.04%) winning 3 seats
Labour 1,728 (8.20%) winning 1 seat
Farmer 534 (2.53%)
Green 125 (0.59%)
Council Composition: NPI 18 Ind 13 Lib Dem 9 PC 3 Lab 1
NPI short by 5

Counties 1993
Plaid Cymru 5,311 (35.35%) winning 3 seats (Aber North, Borth, Llandysilogogo)
Liberal Democrats 4,068 (27.08%) winning 4 seats (Aber South, Llanbadarn Fawr, Llanfihangel Ystrad, Ystwyth)
Independents 4,009 (26.68%) winning 6 seats (Aberporth, Cardigan, Beulah, Llandyfriog, Llansantffraed, Lledrod)
Labour 1,633 (10.87%) winning 1 seat (Lampeter)

[Јas]

What's the difference between Independents and Non Party Independents?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the difference between Independents and Non Party Independents?

Independent would mean someone who put "Independent" as his party on the ballot paper (which in somewhere like Ceredigion is a pretty strong indication that he is or will be part of an official Independent Group), Non Party Independent indicates someone who didn't put "Independent" as his party on the ballot paper... which can indicate all sorts of things, from a genuine independent to someone who would have put "Independent Labour" or "Independent Nationalist" or "Independent Conservative" (and etc, etc, etc) until a few years ago (because you can't do that anymore. Another legacy of the "Literal Democrat" fiasco...)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What's the difference between Independents and Non Party Independents?

Independent would mean someone who put "Independent" as his party on the ballot paper (which in somewhere like Ceredigion is a pretty strong indication that he is or will be part of an official Independent Group), Non Party Independent indicates someone who didn't put "Independent" as his party on the ballot paper... which can indicate all sorts of things, from a genuine independent to someone who would have put "Independent Labour" or "Independent Nationalist" or "Independent Conservative" (and etc, etc, etc) until a few years ago (because you can't do that anymore. Another legacy of the "Literal Democrat" fiasco...)

LOL - Literal Democrat  - did he end up affecting the election or even winning?

[Silent Hunter]

What's the difference between Independents and Non Party Independents?

Independent would mean someone who put "Independent" as his party on the ballot paper (which in somewhere like Ceredigion is a pretty strong indication that he is or will be part of an official Independent Group), Non Party Independent indicates someone who didn't put "Independent" as his party on the ballot paper... which can indicate all sorts of things, from a genuine independent to someone who would have put "Independent Labour" or "Independent Nationalist" or "Independent Conservative" (and etc, etc, etc) until a few years ago (because you can't do that anymore. Another legacy of the "Literal Democrat" fiasco...)

LOL - Literal Democrat  - did he end up affecting the election or even winning?

I think the Tory got back in this case.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the difference between Independents and Non Party Independents?

Independent would mean someone who put "Independent" as his party on the ballot paper (which in somewhere like Ceredigion is a pretty strong indication that he is or will be part of an official Independent Group), Non Party Independent indicates someone who didn't put "Independent" as his party on the ballot paper... which can indicate all sorts of things, from a genuine independent to someone who would have put "Independent Labour" or "Independent Nationalist" or "Independent Conservative" (and etc, etc, etc) until a few years ago (because you can't do that anymore. Another legacy of the "Literal Democrat" fiasco...)

LOL - Literal Democrat  - did he end up affecting the election or even winning?

He stopped the LibDems from winning a European Parliament seat in the West Country (this being back when European elections here were still FPTP) in the mid '90's. He did the same sort of thing in Winchester in the '97 General Election (and by-election afterwards) though without the same success.

There were also quite a few candidates in '97 who ran as "New Labour", a deselected Labour councillor ran as "The Labour Candidate" in Slough in the '92 election (and cost Labour the seat), resulting in a member of the Slough CLP running in a couple of by-elections as "The Conservative Candidate" as a way of protesting, someone ran in a Scottish by-election as a "Scottish Conservatory and Unionist" candidate, someone ran in the Littleborough & Saddleworth by-election for the "Conversative Party"... and so on and so forth.

And in the 1982 Glasgow Hillhead by-election (won by Roy Jenkins) someone called Douglas Parkin changed his name by deed poll to Roy Jenkins and ran for a party also called the SDP...

[Harry Hayfield]

Top % Vote Gainers Past Independent / Unoffical Party Candidates
General Election 1983
Hogarth (Ind Con, Bournemouth East) 3,644 (7.73%)
O'Halloran (Ind Lab, Islington North) 4,091 (11.06%)
Pine (Ind Lib All, Liverpool, Broadgreen) 7,021 (15.26%)

General Election 1987
Board (Ind Con, Windsor and Maidenhead) 1,938 (3.24%)
Marshall (Moderate Lab, Mansfield) 1,580 (3.02%)

General Election 1992
Furness (Ind Con, Hove) 2,658 (5.31%)
Nellist (Ind Lab, Coventry South East) 10,551 (28.87%)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

And in the 1982 Glasgow Hillhead by-election (won by Roy Jenkins) someone called Douglas Parkin changed his name by deed poll to Roy Jenkins and ran for a party also called the SDP...

Looking it over, I duscovered that the weird thing is that other SDP was actually the older of the two parties to use the name, having been founded two years earlier than its more famous cousin.

[afleitch]

And in the 1982 Glasgow Hillhead by-election (won by Roy Jenkins) someone called Douglas Parkin changed his name by deed poll to Roy Jenkins and ran for a party also called the SDP...

Looking it over, I duscovered that the weird thing is that other SDP was actually the older of the two parties to use the name, having been founded two years earlier than its more famous cousin.

The idea of a Social Democratic party had been formenting for a good while, certainly within Labour circles since the 50's (even pre war actually) and by the 70's increasingly outwith the Labour Party, with the election of Dick Taverne (Democratic Labour) in 73 for example, though that was more of a personal vote. Then came the Manifesto Group, yadda yadda and then we know how the story goes from there.

As for the chap who stood in Hillhead he was unrelated to all that. He was overshadowed bless him.

[Harry Hayfield]

Unitaries 1995
Independents 8,352 (38.72%) winning 26 Seats (11 unopposed)
Plaid Cymru 6,225 (28.85%) winning 6 seats (0 unopposed)
Liberal Democrats 5,788 (26.83%) winning 11 seats (1 unopposed)
Greens 886 (4.10%) winning 0 seats
Labour 319 (1.47%) winning 1 seat
Council Composition: Ind 26 Lib Dem 11 PC 6 Lab 1
Ind GAIN from NOC with a majority of 8

Unitaries 1999
Independents 11,384 (40.70%) winning 22 seats (8 unopposed)
Plaid Cymru 10,722 (38.34%) winning 14 seats (1 unopposed)
Liberal Democrats 4,837 (17.29%) winning 7 seats (5 unopposed)
Labour 1,021 (3.65%) winning 1 seat
Council Composition: Ind 22 PC 14 Lib Dem 7 Lab 1
Ind LOSS to NOC: Ind HOLD on mayor's casting vote

Unitaries 2004
* Boundary Changes
Plaid Cymru 10,198 (38.91%) winning 16 seats (3 unopposed)
Independents 7,707 (29.41%) winning 16 seats (1 unopposed)
Liberal Democrats 5,291 (20.19%) winning 9 seats (1 unopposed)
Llais Ceredigion 1,096 (4.18%) winning 0 seats
Non Party Independents 957 (3.65%) winning 0 seats
Labour 785 (2.99%) winning 1 seat
United Kingdom Independence Party 96 (0.36%) winning 0 seats
Greens 48 (0.18%) winning 0 seats
Conservatives 26 (0.09%) winning 0 seats
No Overall Control: Ind, Lib Dem, Lab coalition in control

Changes since 2004
Alan Wilson (Ind, Teifi) defected to Plaid Cymru at the close of nominations
David Evans (Ind, Llangeitho) defected to Plaid Cymru at the close of nominations
Iain Sheldon (UKIP for Ciliau Aeron) defected to Veritas in 2005, and is now standing as Independent

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This story (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7367063.stm) is interesting for one reason only; where they were going. Brown to Swansea, Cameron to the Vale. Both visits are agressive rather than defensive and the choices are interesting.